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Creating a Low-Carbon Future EPRI’s 2009 Prism-MERGE Study. Revis James Director Energy Technology Assessment Center 2010 AABE Conference May 20, 2010. 3500. 3000. Efficiency. 2500. Renewables. Nuclear. 2000. Fossil Efficiency.
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Creating a Low-Carbon Future EPRI’s 2009 Prism-MERGE Study Revis James Director Energy Technology Assessment Center 2010 AABE Conference May 20, 2010
3500 3000 Efficiency 2500 Renewables Nuclear 2000 Fossil Efficiency U.S. Electric Sector CO2 Emissions(million metric tons) CCS 1500 41% below 2005 PEV Electro-Technologies 58% below 2005 1000 500 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2009 Prism – U.S. Electricity Sector EIA 2009 baseline
8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 The CO2 Challenge Assumed Economy-wide CO2 Reduction Target (with no international offsets) Historical Emissions 2005 = 5982 mmT CO2 Remainder of U.S. Economy Billion tons CO2 2030 = 42% below 2005 (3470 mmT CO2) 1017 mmT CO2 U.S. Electric Sector 83% Reduction in CO2 emissions below 2005
MERGE U.S. Electric Generation Mix Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio Demand Reduction Demand Reduction Biomass Wind Solar Hydro Biomass Wind Nuclear Hydro Nuclear Gas Gas Coal New Coal + CCS Coal CCS Retrofit
Key Technology Insights from Economic Analyses • Aggressive energy efficiency will be needed under most scenarios. • Substantial renewables generation (e.g. >20%) will occur. • Combined generation from nuclear and coal will exceed 50% for several decades.
$220 $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 MERGE Wholesale Electricity Cost Results Substantial increases in the cost of electricity Limited Portfolio Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio 160% $/Mwh (2007$) Full Portfolio 50% BAU U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost * 2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost 2007 U.S. Average Wholesale Electricity Cost * Based on estimate of expected business as usual annual investment in generation expansion. Source: “Transforming America’s Power Industry: The Investment Challenge 2010-2030”, The Edison Foundation, 2008 (www.edisonfoundation.net) and U.S. DOE Energy Information Administration 2008 Annual Energy Outlook. 2020 2030 2040 2050
MERGE De-carbonization Results 22 2050 MERGE Projections 2020-2050 2050 20 Limited Portfolio Limited Portfolio 18 16 2040 2040 14 2040 2030 2040 12 2030 2050 2050 2020 Wholesale Electricity Cost (2007 cents/kWh) 2020 Full Portfolio 10 Cost of Electricity 2030 2030 2020 2020 Full Portfolio 2007 8 6 4 2 0 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.10 0.00 Emissions Intensity (metric tons CO2 /MWh) De-Carbonization
Electrification under an 80% below policy Full Portfolio Limited Portfolio Electricity share of final energy demand (indexed to 2000)
Critical Conclusions • With achievement of aggressive but technically feasible levels of technology performance and deployment, annual U.S. electric sector CO2 emissions could be reduced by 41% by 2030. • An optimal technical and economic strategy is comprised of aggressive end-use efficiency and a diverse generation technology portfolio. • All technologies are not yet ready - focused, sustained research, development and demonstration over the next 20 years is necessary. • Electricity policy and technology actions over the next decade will to a great extent shape the electricity future of 2050.
