1 / 75

Dr. Rajeev Dhawan Director

Forecast for the Nation , Georgia and Atlanta. Dr. Rajeev Dhawan Director. ECONOMIC FORECASTING CENTER. Presented at the Quarterly Forecast Conference GSU Student Center August 24 th , 2005. Office: 404-651-3291 email: forecast@gsu.edu http://www.robinson.gsu.edu/efc.

dong
Download Presentation

Dr. Rajeev Dhawan Director

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Forecast for theNation, GeorgiaandAtlanta Dr. Rajeev Dhawan Director ECONOMIC FORECASTING CENTER Presented at the Quarterly Forecast Conference GSU Student Center August 24th, 2005 Office: 404-651-3291 email: forecast@gsu.edu http://www.robinson.gsu.edu/efc

  2. Source: Walt Handelsman, Long Island, NY, Newsday

  3. The Good,the Bad, and the Ugly

  4. Forecast Theme Antidote to the Naysayers: Economic Logic and a Dash of Common Sense!

  5. U.S. Short-Term Forecast 200420052006 2007

  6. Short-Term Forecast Comparison

  7. Breakdown of Retail Sales

  8. When the Party’s Over Source: Fortune, August 22nd, 2005

  9. Business Investment (Percent change, 2000 dollars) High Gasoline Prices Also Cause Investment in Energy Efficient Equipment Source: GSU, Economic Forecasting Center, August 2005

  10. Dow 30 Revenue Growth ? AIG, Merck, Walmart & Exxon Mobil

  11. Data Revisions and the Employment Report Month Report Published Latest Month of Data

  12. Is The Bond Market STILL Not Cooperating? 10-Year is DOWN by 40 Basis Points! 10 Hikes Totaling 250 Basis Points in 13 Months

  13. Breakdown of Consumer Prices

  14. Bold FED Forecast! My slightly bold forecast is for two 25-basis point hikes by the FED at its next two meetings, then signaling the end of this tightening cycle with a dramatic 50-basis point hike at the December meeting

  15. Source: May 2005, Forecast of the Nation 10-Year Bond Rate and Trade Deficit 10-Year Bond Regression

  16. Testimony of Chairman Alan Greenspan Fannie's and Freddie's purchases of their own or each other's mortgage-backed securities with their market-subsidized debt do not contribute usefully to mortgage-market liquidity, to the enhancement of capital markets in the United States, or to the lowering of mortgages rates for homeowners Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, April 6th 2005

  17. U.S. Short-Term Forecast 200420052006 2007

  18. Prediction Vs. Reality A+++

  19. Source: Michael Ramirez, California, The Los Angeles Times

  20. How China Runs the World Economy EXPORTS: $94.5 (16.2%) IMPORTS: $40.9 (7.4%) EXPORTS: $23.3 (4.0%) IMPORTS: $29.8 (5.4%) EXPORTS: $72.3 (12.4%) IMPORTS: $88.9 (16.1%) EXPORTS: $25.7 (4.4%) IMPORTS: $57.4 (10.4%) EXPORTS: 132.9 (22.8%) IMPORTS: 42.5 (7.7%) Hong Kong Japan S. Korea Germany EXPORTS: $122.3 (22.7%) IMPORTS: $56.3 (14%) EXPORTS: $44.6 (17.8%) IMPORTS: $27.2 (12.7%) EXPORTS: $45.6 (17%) IMPORTS: $14.6 (5.3%) EXPORTS: $78.6 (8.8%) IMPORTS: $46.6 (6.5%) Source: CIA Fact book

  21. The World’s Growth Imbalance (%) UNITED STATES GERMANY JAPAN Source: Global Insight, EFC

  22. Can We Blame China for High Oil Prices? * VIN – Venezuela, Indonesia, Norway Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2005

  23. International Country Analysis GDP Growth Source: IMF & Blue Chip International

  24. ($/Bbl)

  25. Anonymous Vent The end is near when a share of Delta stock costs less than a Happy Meal. Source: The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, August 11th, 2005

  26. Delta / Air Transportation • Fuel Prices Still Very High • Underestimated Current Fuel Costs • Fuel in Q2 was $1.60/gallon, 50% higher than a year ago • Crunch Time • Posted $1.5 Billion in Losses 1st half 2005 • Delta needs CASH fast • Sold regional subsidiary ASA to SkyWest for $425 million • Renegotiated Finance Staves off Bankruptcy? New Mastercard/VISA deal costs $750 million • Competition Getting Breaks • United Dumped $6.6 Billion in Pension Costs • US Air and America West Merger

  27. Can AirTran Fill Delta’s Shoes?

  28. Hartsfield-Jackson Expansion Doldrums Airport Development Program Projected Spending - $6 Billion Includes Seven Major Projects Firing of ArchitectsHAS DELAYED $1 B New Intl Terminal Source: Inside Hartsfield-Jackson (2005 press kit)

  29. LocalEconomy Suffers a SectoralGrowth Pause

  30. Between June 2003 and Aug 2004, Georgia Gained 70,000 jobs HOWEVER, Georgia Gained Only 38,000 Jobs in the Last 11 Months

  31. Healthcare Blip • Healthcare Usually a Leading Growth Sector • 1st Half 2005 created Only 14,000 Jobs, Last Year Added 40,000 Jobs in 1st Half 1st Half 2005 was Flat Compared to 2004

  32. Information and Technology Mergers: • Qwest and MCI • Sprint and Nextel • AT&T and Cingular Layoffs: • MCI -600 • Earthlink -180 • AT&T -350 • Cingular: -10% • AT&T/SBC -13,000 FLAT

  33. 1st half 2005 0.3% growth over the 1st half of 2004 Source: US Census Bureau

  34. Commercial Constructionis Drying Up 6,000 Jobs From 2003q2-2004q2 but FLAT Since

  35. Georgia’s Report Card: B-

  36. Georgia’s Recent and Potential Job Layoffs RECENT - Winn Dixie 3,000 workers in 50 unsold stores - Earthlink 180 workers Future Layoff (Uncertain When & Where They Will Occur) - HP - 14,500 jobs (Atlanta currently has 1,600 workers) - Kodak - 10,000 jobs - Kimberly-Clark - 6,000 jobs over 3 years - Coca-Cola Enterprises - 6,000 jobs

  37. Georgia Tax Collections Looks Great, Right? Source: Georgia Department of Revenue

  38. But We Have Concerns… Why Is Sales Tax Flat??

  39. Blame Flat Sales Tax Revenues on Oil? As Oil $$ Go Up, Sales Tax Revenues Go Down

More Related