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Improved road weather forecasting by using high resolution satellite data Claus Petersen and Bent H. Sass Danish Meteorological Institute. Background.

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  1. Improved road weather forecasting by using high resolution satellite dataClaus Petersen and Bent H. SassDanish Meteorological Institute

  2. Background • It has been realized that prediction of cloud cover and precipitation play a key role in prediction of the road surface temperature and the road conditions. • Prediction of cloud cover requires a NWP model which can model clouds and data-assimilation of cloud cover and precipitation observations.

  3. Viking project • Title • Development of new generation of cloud and precipitation analyses for the automatic Road Weather Model • Duration • 2003-2005 • Goal • Improvement of the forecasts for slippery roads by developing a new prediction model

  4. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model

  5. Already used observations

  6. Model domain of NWP model and network of road stations • Horizontal resolution0.15x0.15 • Vertical levels 40 • Number of grid points82x98=8036 • Dynamic time step 72 s. • Physical time step 360 s. • Boundary update 1 hour • Boundary age 0-5 hours • First guess age 0-1 hour • Forecast frequency Every hour • Forecast length 5-24 hours • Data-assimilation period 3 hours • Road stations 300

  7. Data sources

  8. Single channels or composite

  9. Cloud mask Cloud top temperature Precipitation intensity Cloud type

  10. Application of cloud observations

  11. Application of cloud observations

  12. 1 hour forecast with data-assimilation of satellite data FORECAST Observed cloud mask 1 hour forecast of cloud mask 1 hour forecast of wind and temperature 1 hour forecast of precipitation, mslp

  13. 1 hour forecast without data-assimilation of satellite data FORECAST Observed cloud mask 1 hour forecast of cloud mask 1 hour forecast of wind and temperature 1 hour forecast of precipitation, mslp

  14. 6 hour forecast with data-assimilation of satellite data Observed cloud mask 6 hour forecast of cloud mask 6 hour forecast of wind and temperature 6 hour forecast of precipitation, mslp

  15. 6 hour forecast without data-assimilation of satellite data Observed cloud mask 6 hour forecast of cloud mask 6 hour forecast of wind and temperature 6 hour forecast of precipitation, mslp

  16. 21 hour forecast with data-assimilation of satellite data Observed cloud mask 21 hour forecast of cloud mask 21 hour forecast of wind and temperature 21 hour forecast of precipitation, mslp

  17. 21 hour forecast without data-assimilation of satellite data Observed cloud mask 21 hour forecast of cloud mask 21 hour forecast of wind and temperature 21 hour forecast of precipitation, mslp

  18. Road Condition Model G: Ground heat flux S: Direct insolation D: Diffuse insolation R: Infrared radiation H: Sensible heat flux L: Latent heat flux F: Flux correction

  19. User interface

  20. Verification of cloud forecast • First two weeks of March 2005 • Danish SYNOP stations • Limited MSG1 data • Verifcation for model run every hour

  21. Best practice • A general method has been developed to assimilate cloud observations into a NWP model. • Verification and case studies indicate that prediction of cloud cover is improved for short range forecasting but that results can be further improved with more experience. • Further verification and investigation of the road surface temperature dependency of cloud cover are needed. • Satellite data will be used in the road weather model from this season • The potential use of satellite data in other road application is very large.

  22. QUESTIONS CONTACT Claus Petersen cp@dmi.dk Danish Meteorological Institute LINKS www.dmi.dk www.eumetsat.int http://nwcsaf.inm.es

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