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Scenario Thinking to Solve Complex Environmental Problems

Scenario Thinking to Solve Complex Environmental Problems. Talk for ISSS Meeting Steve Carpenter Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin srcarpen@wisc.edu. Scenario thinking solves complex environmental problems. Topics: Recognized Uncertainties, Imaginable Outcomes, and

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Scenario Thinking to Solve Complex Environmental Problems

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  1. Scenario Thinking to Solve Complex Environmental Problems Talk for ISSS Meeting Steve Carpenter Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin srcarpen@wisc.edu

  2. Scenario thinking solves complex environmental problems.

  3. Topics: Recognized Uncertainties, Imaginable Outcomes, and Unasked Questions Scenarios Summary, Gaps, Needs

  4. Topics: Recognized Uncertainties, Imaginable Outcomes, and Unasked Questions Scenarios Summary, Gaps, Needs

  5. Evaluations of World-Ending Disasters: Overall chance of humanity making it to 2100: ~ 50:50 http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2005/apr/14/research.science2 See also Martin Rees, Our Final Century (Europe) or Our Final Hour (U.S.)

  6. Effect of Knowledge on Probability of Extreme Events

  7. Effect of Knowledge on Probability of Extreme Events Focus on Student-t Tails Probability Deviation

  8. Dust Bowl – North America, 1930s Cultivation of Marginal Land Dry, Windy Dust storms Soil erosion Peters, D. P. C., R. A. Pielke, Sr, B. T. Bestelmeyer, C. D. Allen, S. Munson-McGee, and K. M. Havstad. 2004. Cross scale interactions, nonlinearities, and forecasting catastrophic events. Proceedings National Academy Sciences 101:15130-15135.

  9. All Possible Futures Unasked Questions Recognized Uncertainties Models & Observations Based on Carpenter, Bennett, & Peterson., 2006, Ecology & Society http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art29/

  10. All Possible Futures Unasked Questions Imaginable Outcomes Recognized Uncertainties Models & Observations Based on Carpenter, Bennett, & Peterson., 2006, Ecology & Society http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art29/

  11. Topics: Recognized Uncertainties, Imaginable Outcomes, and Unasked Questions Scenarios Summary, Gaps, Needs

  12. The World Lots of Perspectives

  13. Carpenter, Folke, Scheffer, Westley, unpublished manuscript

  14. Carpenter, Folke, Scheffer, Westley, unpublished manuscript

  15. Salvador Dali, “Still Life Moving Fast” Carpenter, Folke, Scheffer, Westley, unpublished manuscript

  16. Sample Perspectives Condense to a few Scenarios Cluster the Samples

  17. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment http://www.MAweb.org

  18. (Art by Pille Bunnell for the M.A.) Cork, S. J., G. D. Peterson, E. M. Bennett, G. Petschel-Held, and M. Zurek. 2006. Synthesis of the storylines. Ecology and Society11(2): 11. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss2/art11/

  19. Process for Combining Multiple Models Millennium Ecosystem Assessment http://www.MAweb.org

  20. Cost to replace failing infrastructure in the U.S.: $1.6 trillion Collapsed bridge, Minnesota, 2007

  21. Topics: Recognized Uncertainties, Imaginable Outcomes, and Unasked Questions Scenarios Summary, Gaps, Needs

  22. Summary Scenario processes provide: Playful, inventive thinking about the future Positive stories Blunt warnings Shadow networks Diverse people thinking together

  23. GAPS People Institutions Structured Processes Information Tools

  24. NEEDS Education Shadow Networks Ongoing Assessments of Planetary Life-Support

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