Confidence in the Peruvian Government

1. Confidence in the Peruvian Government Adam W. Gould ag6695b@student.american.edu American University School of International Service

2. Research Question & Research Hypothesis • Research Question/s : What, if any, role do demographic variables such as age, gender, ethnicity, and income level have on the level of confidence in the government among Peruvians? • Ha: A statistically significant relationship exists between confidence in the government and independent variables (race, gender, age, and income level.) • Ho: No statistically significant relationship exists between confidence in the government and the independent variables.

3. Background Info • Despite sound macroeconomic performance over the last few years, poverty and lack of engagement of the rural and indigenous population by the national government remains a tremendous problem. • Neoliberal reforms at the center of often violent debate over economic expansion vs. indigenous rights.

4. Data • Unit of analysis : Individual • Source of the data: 2006 World Values Survey • The World values survey is conducted using a multi-stage cluster sample design, stratification by region, by urban and rural areas, and residence zones in Metropolitan Lima. • Sample size is 1,500 respondents. • Selection method meets EPSEM criteria, but cluster sampling is somewhat less reliable than simple random sample. • Dependent variable: Confidence (Ordinal) • 4-point scale of self-reported confidence in the government. • Independent Variable • X1: Race (by individual,) a nominal variable. • X2: Age (years,) an interval ratio variable • X3: Gender, a nominal variable • X4: Income level (Peruvian nuevo soles,) an ordinal variable.

5. Descriptive Statistics Y: Range 1-4. For the dependent variable, the mode is 3, “Not very much.” The distribution of responses is not normal. X1: Range 1-6. Mode is 2, “Mixed Race”, with 830 responses out of 1,386. X2: Range 18-89. Mean age is 37.617 years, std. dev. 14.897. Mode is 25 years. Distribution is positively skewed. Median age of 54. X3: Range 0-1. Mode is 0,“Female.” X4: Range 1-9. Income level, mean is step 2.807, median is the 4th and 5th step. Distribution is positively skewed. Interpretation: Most Peruvians do not have much confidence in the government.

6. Bivariate analysis

7. Regression Analysis :Government Confidence (Y=1 Means “No Confidence”) • No model offers significant results once dependent variable is recoded to simple binary construction for probit.

8. Had the Research Question Been Different… Y= Importance of Politics 0 =“Important” 1= “Not Important Income Level: Significant, negative relationship. Education: Significant, negative relationship. Model 2 is a fair predictive model of Y variable, with significant Z scores and not too many missing observations . *Relatively low R2 Values

9. Findings & Policy Implications • Failed to reject the Null except in initial chi-squared test of X1. Therefore, no statistically significant relationships exist between the independent and dependent variables. • In the initial bivariate table, it appeared that Race and Confidence were associated, but this outcome was refuted in the Probit analysis (when measure of Confidence was recoded to 0=Confidence or 1= No Confidence.) • Policy Implications? • Note that the government confidence in the pie graph was very low, almost 90% reported “not much” or “none at all.” Survey respondents overall reported a very low level of confidence in the government. This could be a sign that the government is on its way out. • Recent events frustrating García administration.