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DEMAND MODELING APPROACH FOR ENERGY SERVICES MODELING COLLOQUIUM 31 JULY 2012

DEMAND MODELING APPROACH FOR ENERGY SERVICES MODELING COLLOQUIUM 31 JULY 2012. Dr R Maserumule Demand Modeling Specialist Department of Energy. Energy Demand in South Africa. This what we collect. This what we need for the IEP. South African Context. Studies on end use once off

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DEMAND MODELING APPROACH FOR ENERGY SERVICES MODELING COLLOQUIUM 31 JULY 2012

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  1. DEMAND MODELING APPROACH FOR ENERGY SERVICES MODELING COLLOQUIUM 31 JULY 2012 Dr R Maserumule Demand Modeling Specialist Department of Energy

  2. Energy Demand in South Africa This what we collect This what we need for the IEP

  3. South African Context • Studies on end use once off • Institute Energy Studies (Early 1990’s) • Eskom (2012) • Department of Energy (2009, 2012)

  4. Three Basic Approaches to Forecasting • Judgmental: Obtained by asking a group of experts about the behavior of the population. • Econometric: Obtained by analysing the time series of historical population • Engineering: Obtained through small scale studies of a controlled population

  5. Total Energy Services (303805 TJ) Total Energy Carriers (303805 TJ)

  6. Overview of Demand Models (112)

  7. Opportunities for Collaboration • Continuous detailed sector studies on end use • Measure carbon footprint • Opportunities for deploying energy efficiency interventions

  8. Bottom Up Approach

  9. Opportunities for Collaboration • Common dataset for historical energy consumption • DoE energy balances • Eskom electricity sales • Other data sets • Common dataset for macroeconomic data • GDP growth • Activity variables • Population (total number of households) • Physical Production (tons of coal, tons of gold)

  10. THANK YOU

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