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THE DAY AFTER:

THE DAY AFTER:. A CIVILIZATIONAL CRISIS FROM ‘SUSTAINABLE GROWTH’ TO SEARCH FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE/HUMANITY İbrahim Öztürk Prof. Dr. Marmara University Bosphorus Unv. Center for Asian Studies. THE CENTRAL MESSAGE OF THE PAPER. DO NOT AFREAD OF CRISIS BUT

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THE DAY AFTER:

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  1. THE DAY AFTER: A CIVILIZATIONAL CRISIS FROM ‘SUSTAINABLE GROWTH’ TO SEARCH FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE/HUMANITY İbrahim Öztürk Prof. Dr. Marmara University Bosphorus Unv. Center for Asian Studies

  2. THE CENTRAL MESSAGE OF THE PAPER DO NOT AFREAD OF CRISIS BUT PUT EMPHASSI ON THE QUALITY OF YOUR RESPONSE THE NECESSITY IS THE MOTHER OF INVENTION

  3. WHAT WENT WRONG? (I) THE CRISIS of 1970s... Post 2nd. WW qantitif or physical developement saturated as of 1970s. Return on capital started decreasing. What is next? Side efect of developmentalist / Keynesian state emerged. Collapse of Gold Standard /End of Bretton Woods System Oil Crisis and Stagflation Significant convergence amongs latecomers and the leading Cs.

  4. WHAT WENT WRONG? (II) THE RESPONSE (NOT Crisis but quality of reaction defining) The rise of Neo-Liberal Order: Deregulation, end of nation states as unit of analysis. Governance Structures and Institutional Foundation of market under attack Trade and Finance Liberalization. Seperation of capital and the nation states. From stake holder to share holder value maximization. The rise of virtual, finance and the bubble economy through financial innovations. Gap widens btw. reel economy and the finance capital: Excessive financializaiton Real Estate Bubbles fastened: Chain was cut in Japan at early 1990s and then spreaded to the rest of the World. Unlike the first and second Industrial Revolution, now factors are flowing from oceans to the inner lands, what has been called periphery.

  5. FROM THE CRISIS OF ECONOMICS TO THE CRSIS OF CIVILIZATIONSThe Rise and Decline of Civilizations Natural Law: Some How Irreversible! Demographic Structure Alienation Excessive Exploitation of Resources

  6. A RISK MAP FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE?! Global Warming Evrironmental Degradation Food and Commodity Aging Erosion of family Excessive selfishness and atomization Lack of hope and motivation in young generations The rise of racism Joblessness / Unemployment Inevitably rising protectionism Lack of Leadership and Governance Crisis Cold War Global institutions: Legitimacy problem

  7. SAVING THE FUTURE FROM CRISIS TO THE QUALITY OF REACTION

  8. Crisis, Innovaiton Waves and Technological Breakthrougs(A Schumpeterian Creative Destruction?) I. Industrial Revolution (1780-1840): Mass production of textile, cotton critical input II. IR (1840-1890): Steam Engine, Railroads, Coal III. Waves of Change ( 1890-1940): Electricity,Steel and Iron Age IV. Waves of Change (1940-1990): Otomobile, Mass Prod. Of Synthetic industrial goods. Energy (Oil) V. Waves of Change (1990-?): The Age of ‘Nano’ and ‘speed revolution’ (Knowledge, Communication, Computer networks, Nano-Engineering. Semi-conductors or micro electronic)

  9. FORCASTING THE OUTCOMES OF 6TH. KONTRADIEV WAVESMATERIAL REACTIONS ENERGY ENVIRONMENT HEALTH/BIOTECH FOOD NANO-REVOLUTION IT (THE AGE OF HIGH RISK HIGH RETURN (ALL NECESSARY BUT NOT SUFFICIENT!)

  10. FACTORS IN POSIVE DECOUPLING GROWTH DYNAMICS DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE GEO-STRATEGIC POSITION KEY RESOURCES (ENERGY-COMMODITY) PROXIMITY TO THE MAJOR EMERGING MARKETS STILL KNOWLEDGE AS WE ARE ON THE SAME SHIP INDIVIDUAL STORIES DO NOT WORK

  11. Macro results Overheating and resistance Micro results &Fundamentals Water Level Systemic and Structural Parameters Culture / Mentality Big picture: Facing the Iceberg

  12. QUALITY AND THE PHILOSOPHY OF REACTION TO CURRENT CRISIS GLOBAL PROBLEM GLOBAL SOLUTION SINCE THE LAST CRISIS: OLD WINE IN OLD BOTTLE! SHOULD GO BEYOND MATERIAL REACTIONS SUCH AS MOTIVATING GROWTH ETC. QUESTIONING THE FUNDAMENTALS: PREMISES AND POSTULATES NEW TRINITY OF HUMAN BEING: FREEDOM, MARKET AND MORALITY (Institutionalization and endogenizing values in economic theroy) LISTENING TO William Greider: The Soul of Capitalism: Opening Path to a Moral Economy, 2003. Amartya Sen, On Ethics and Economy, 1998.

  13. A WORKING SYSTYEM REQUIRES SYNTHESIS BTW. 1. MARKET (PRICE) MECHANISM, 2. INSTITUTIONS, AND 3. CULTURE: None of them can be sacrificed INSTITUTIONS WORK WITH CULTURE BUT CULTURECAN NOTBE IMPORTED. AN INDIGENOUS LEARNING BY DOING IS UNAVOIDABLE. MODERNIST DOGMAS DO NOT WORK. HOWEVER, A UNIVERSAL LEARNING CURVE EFFECT IS QUITE USEFUL

  14. LONG ROAD TO RETORING STABILITY REFORM AND CHANGE: A “REVERSE ENGINEERING” OR RE-PRODUCTION OF THE STATUSQUO IS NOT REALISTIC A NEW MOTIVATION SCHEME through LEGITIMACY (with different mode of distribution, participation, transparency, accountability, responsibility, regulation) A NEW SOCİAL CONTRACT is urgent POLITICAL STABILITY

  15. GOOD GOVERNANCE, CAPACITY AND AUTONOMY OF STATE

  16. TURKEY FROM THIS PERSPECTIVE1. NOT ENEMY BUT PARTNER2. NOT BURDEN BUT OPPORTUNITY 3. NOT SUBSTITUTE BUT A COMPLEMENT

  17. INITIATING THE NEW SILK ROAD: RETURNING TO THE HISTORY: FROM SHANGHAY TO ISTANBUL

  18. “DEMOGRAPHIC PROJECTIONS IN 2050”

  19. LET’S MEET WHERE CONTINENTS MEET

  20. SHIFTING TO THE CENTER

  21. EMERGENCE OF NEW MIDDLE CLASS IN ASIA

  22. MARKET POWER

  23. AN ENERGY CORRIDOR:A WIN-WIN STRATEGY BTW. SUPPLIERS AND CONSUMERS

  24. HUMAN CAPITAL ABUNDANT

  25. LABOR PRODUCTIVITY

  26. STILL COMPARABLY CHEAPER

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