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2011: The Year of a Palestinian State ?

2011: The Year of a Palestinian State ?. Limmud Conference. The Obama Administration Policy.

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2011: The Year of a Palestinian State ?

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  1. 2011: The Year of a Palestinian State ? Limmud Conference

  2. The Obama Administration Policy The Middle East peace process has not moved forward. And I think it's fair to say that for all our efforts at early engagement, it is not where I want it to be…If we had anticipated some of these political problems on both sides earlier, we might not have raised expectations as high."  Arab States: Normalization Israel: Settlement Freeze Palestinians: Greater Security Negotiations Leading to Permanent Status Agreement within 2 Years

  3. Israel-US Relations “this is no longer just about helping a special ally resolve a debilitating problem. With 200,000 American troops committed to two wars in the greater Middle East and the U.S. president leading a major international effort to block Iran’s nuclear program, resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has become a U.S. strategic imperative” (Martin Indyk) Obama less emotionally attached to Israel Shared Values Jews don’t speak in once voice on Israel. Liberal Jews identify less. AIPAC vs. J-Street Strong lobby US priority: Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran. IL-PL Conflict Linkage (Resolution to Conflict revolves around 67 borders) Shared Interests Peace is a central aspects of US National Security

  4. Abbas: Between Rock and Hard Place Geographical Division + Constitutional Crisis Abbas Problematic Legitimacy (wont run again) Hamas: Growing Intl Recognition Between US pressure + Arab street + Hamas in Gaza

  5. The Search for a Strategy Dissolving PA & Demanding 1 state Unilateral Declaration If negotiations fail the chances of one of these options rise ..maybe we will demand one binational state" (10/8) ..we’re considering declaring a state unilaterally (2/9) maybe we should focus on a state of all its citizens " (11/09) we are determined to achieve a state unilaterally firm in our " (11/09)

  6. Alternatives to Negotiations International Legitimacy via UN Fayyad's State Building Popular Resistance Developing “credible alternatives to the traditional two-state solution, such as a one-state, a bi-national state”

  7. 2SS 1 State Threat International Arena: Erosion of 2 State Solution PLO Accepts 242 “If the freeze is not renewed, then yes, maybe this is going to happen…All international players are now in agreement that the Palestinians are ready for statehood at any point in the near future…(UN Special Coordinator for Middle East Peace Process Robert Serry) “The 2SS is an obsolete paradigm. Linkage or retrocession of the West Bank & Gaza to some form of Egyptian and Jordanian security control has a greater chance of stabilizing the situation Any two-state solution based on the PA is stillborn. Instead, we should look to a "three-state" approach, where Gaza is returned to Egyptian control and the West Bank in some configuration reverts to Jordanian sovereignty. (John Bolton) "If Israeli and Palestinian leaders fail to sign an agreement on Palestinian statehood in the coming weeks or months, we'll have to prepare ourselves for the next stage (Sari Nusseibeh) Crisis of Palestinian Representation Split between Gaza & WB Difficult of Separating Jews & Arabs Inability to Settle Core Issues A state ‘not at any cost’ Rise of Alternative Paradigms Relevancy Confederation Return of Jordanian Option Palestinian declaration of statehood Bi-National State 2SS Still Agreed Principle for SolutionHowever Status Quo Likely to Further Erode its Relevancy Time

  8. International Arena & PL Unilateralism US Committed to Bilateral Negotiations. Opposed to Unilateral Acts The Relevancy of the Kosovo Model? Dec 2010: Argentina, Uruguay, Brazil & Bolivia recognize PL State Dec 2010: Euro states (UK, Norway, France, Spain) upgrade diplomatic status of PL representatives. Opposed to PL declaration ‘at this time’ Oct 2010: “Everyone understands that a solution must be negotiated. Everything else is a mirage. They know that. We know that.”

  9. Israel’s Challenge: Balancing Clash of Logics What is the main threat from the Palestinians? IL Stays: Political Threat Political Logic: Leave IL Leaves: Security Threat Military Logic: Stay Demographic Burden Militarized PL State Erosion of 2SS Foreign forces using PL Logic of Implosion Terrorism and Rocket fire

  10. How to end control over the Palestinians? Permanent Agreement Palestinian State First (agreed) End of Conflict, Finality of Claims PSPB(Return to Roadmap) First Agreement, then PL State 2nd Phase: PSPB 3rd Phase: PSA Annapolis and Oslo The Road Map

  11. Package Agreement: Structural Issues Serious Disagreements on Historic Issues + Security Constitutional Crisis: Abbas lacks Legitimacy Increasing Division between Gaza & WB PL Division IL Govt. Weakness No ZOPA Shaky Center Right Coalition PSA Failure for All lead to worse than Nothing

  12. Decoupling Statehood from End of Conflict

  13. PSPB Approach: Structural Problems Hamas may support: Part of Phased Plan; Fatah Not a Partner Growing Split Between Gaza & WB How Will the Agreement be Ratified? Palestinian Split No ZOPA No Palestinian Ratification means No Israeli Ratification An Unratified Agreement May Bring About PA Collapse PSPB

  14. How to end control over the Palestinians? Permanent Agreement Palestinian State First (agreed) Palestinian State First (de-facto) End of Conflict, Finality of Claims PSPB(Return to Roadmap) No Agreement: Upgrading the PA First Agreement, then PL State 2nd Phase: PSPB 3rd Phase: PSA Systematic Buildup; PL State; Permanent Agreement Building PL State bypasses Constitutional Crisis: Fayyad might be a partner

  15. How to Advance the Creation of a State? Gestures Strengthen PA Upgrade PA Only Israel Can ‘Upgrade’ the PA Consolidating the Status of Moderate Forces Inside the System Without Strengthening the PA Actions aimed at strengthening PA’s powers & authorities of within framework of existing agreements. Systematically transferring powers & authorities above those that exist by virtue of the Interim Agreement Remove Checkpoints, Ease Restrictions, Promote Investment Power to Establish Consulates Abroad, Issuing Currency Dayton and Blair’s Actions for Restoring the Palestinian Police

  16. The Status of the Interim Agreement PL State is an Israeli interest (IL not opposed to symbolic sovereignty PL state is an Israeli card (IL opposed to symbolic sovereign) Difficult to achieve PSA in near future Moving towards a PSA (3-5 years) No physical border between Israel and West Bank Security Fence

  17. Israeli Mindset regarding PL Unilateralism Upgrading of PA potentially beneficial to Israel Palestinian Unilateralism Dangerous: Should be Opposed Palestinian declaration of statehood poses both challenges and opportunities for Israel Certain unilateral moves can go hand in hand with negotiations – towards strengthening 2 State reality Binary: Either negotiations or unilateralism

  18. To Lead or be Led? That is the Question Without a Plan Israel gets Led With a Plan, Israel Leads If Israel Wants to Lead – it needs a New Political Strategy If wants to be Led - Not at Expense of ‘Special Relations’

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