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Atmospheric and Hydrological Modeling

Atmospheric and Hydrological Modeling. Shinjiro KANAE RIHN, Kyoto, Japan Univ of Tokyo, Japan. (Kanae: ……impact of land on seasonal-p ) C. Tam: Seasonal prediction T. Satomura, J. Chan: Regional model, diurnal - ISO K. Tanaka: Land surface model

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Atmospheric and Hydrological Modeling

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  1. Atmospheric and Hydrological Modeling Shinjiro KANAE RIHN, Kyoto, Japan Univ of Tokyo, Japan (Kanae: ……impact of land on seasonal-p ) C. Tam: Seasonal prediction T. Satomura, J. Chan: Regional model, diurnal - ISO K. Tanaka: Land surface model Hansa, V.: Hydrological model ShahNewaz: Hydrological model (for very large river) B. Wang: Ocean - atmos

  2. Impact of land wetness on predictability of seasonal rainfall Kanae et al. (2006, J. Climate) SST AGCM hindcast (1951-98) (5 ensembles) “Realistic” soil moisture and snow (Hirabayashi et al., 2005, JGR) “Observed” atmospheric forcing (1901-2000)

  3. “Inconsistency” < (upper limit) Potential Predictability calculated from σforced2／σtotal2 (with a perfect model assumption) (= similarity within an ensemble) Correlation between JJAobservation and simulation (=“predictability”) Simply implementing land information intocurrent AGCMs may not give us a promise!!

  4. Today’s Earth http://hydro.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/Earth “Everyday” simulation is very nice to model improvement. 降水同位体比(Lv3) 降水量(Lv1) 水蒸気起源(Lv4) 河川流量(Lv4)

  5. Atmospheric and Hydrological Modeling (Kanae: ……impact of land on seasonal-p ) C. Tam: Seasonal prediction T. Satomura, J. Chan: Regional model, diurnal - ISO K. Tanaka: Land surface model Hansa, V.: Hydrological model ShahNewaz: Hydrological model (for very large river) B. Wang: Ocean - atmos

  6. What are the bottlenecks?What are the key-targets? Coordination between observations (in AMY) and model studies. Collaboration between atmospheric modeling, ocean modeling, and land hydro modeling. Which Institutes will be “Model-Centers”? ….. Expected discussion focuses

  7. “Semi-arid” Negative correlation “Inconsistency” Positive correlation Correlation between sensible and latent heat fluxes(1951-1998, interannual correlation, JJA mean, LAND)

  8. Dry Wet “Semi-arid” Negative correlation between lE & H Evap Sens “Soil water” determines lE and H then, to the atmosphere “Inconsistency” Positive correlation between lE & H “Atmosphere” determines lE and H Remote impact on the atmos(?)

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