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Hydrological Modeling

Hydrological Modeling. Andrew D. Gronewold. Objectives. Support Great Lakes water resource management Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk. Support Great Lakes water resource management

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Hydrological Modeling

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  1. Hydrological Modeling Andrew D. Gronewold

  2. Objectives • Support Great Lakes water resource management • Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data • Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty • Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk • Support Great Lakes water resource management • Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data • Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty • Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk

  3. Objective 1: Management support Example: Advanced hydrologic prediction system (AHPS)

  4. Products • Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) • Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) • Derivative outlooks weighting software • Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM) • Large Lake Thermodynamics Model (LLTM) • Mid-Lakes Routing Model (MLRM) • Thiessen polygon software • Great Lakes Hydrometeorological Station Directory Database • Probabilistic violation assessment tool (ProVAsT)

  5. Stakeholders and partners • Government agencies: • United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) • Environment Canada (EC) • United States Geological Survey (USGS) • United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) • Management authorities and utilities: • New York Power Authority (NYPA) • Ontario Power Generation (OPG) • Academic and research institutions: • University of Michigan • Wayne State University • Case Western Reserve University • Duke University • Western Michigan University • Other academic institutions

  6. Objectives • Support Great Lakes water resource management • Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data • Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty • Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk • Support Great Lakes water resource management • Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data • Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty • Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk

  7. Objective 2: Data management

  8. Products • Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) • Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) • Derivative outlooks weighting software • Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM) • Large Lake Thermodynamics Model (LLTM) • Mid-Lakes Routing Model (MLRM) • Thiessen polygon software • Great Lakes Hydrometeorological Station Directory Database • Probabilistic violation assessment tool (ProVAsT)

  9. Stakeholders and partners • Government agencies: • United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) • Environment Canada (EC) • United States Geological Survey (USGS) • United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) • Management authorities and utilities: • New York Power Authority (NYPA) • Ontario Power Generation (OPG) • Academic and research institutions: • University of Michigan • Wayne State University • Case Western Reserve University • Duke University • Western Michigan University • Other academic institutions

  10. Objectives • Support Great Lakes water resource management • Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data • Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty • Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk • Support Great Lakes water resource management • Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data • Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty • Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk

  11. Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty

  12. Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty • Example “A”: Predicting flows in ungauged basins

  13. Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty Example “B”: water quality assessments and human health risk

  14. Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty Example “B”: water quality assessments and human health risk

  15. Objectives • Support Great Lakes water resource management • Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data • Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty • Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk • Support Great Lakes water resource management • Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data • Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty • Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk

  16. Objective 4: Communicate risk Example: probability and impact of extreme events

  17. Objective 4: Communicate risk • Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)

  18. Objective 4: Communicate risk Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)

  19. Objective 4: Communicate risk • Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)

  20. Objective 4: Communicate risk Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)

  21. Objective 4: Communicate risk • Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)

  22. Hydrological Modeling: summary • Hydrology program cornerstones solid foundation • Applying novel tools and filling gaps in research • Exciting transition period

  23. Hydrological Modeling: summary

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