From Lab to Market: Accelerating Renewable Energy Innovation and Deployment

1. From Lab to Market: Accelerating Renewable Energy Innovation and Deployment Robert J. Noun Executive Director Communications and External Affairs November 18, 2008 NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC

2. Setting the Bar Higher – Gigawatt-Scale Renewables • Solar Vision • 10% U.S. electricity by 2025 • Wind Vision • 20% U.S. electricity by 2030 Energy Independence & Security Act 2007 36 billion gallons of renewable fuels by 2022 Requires investment in new infrastructure: • Overall in U.S. = $2 trillion • Worldwide = $22 trillion • Biofuels • Wind • Solar $2 trillion (est.) National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

3. Implementing Renewable Gigawatts at Scale • Cost of renewable electricity • Performance and reliability • Infrastructure robustness and capacity • Dispatchability of renewables BARRIERS Displacement of Petroleum-Based Fuels • Cellulosic ethanol cost • Life cycle sustainability of biofuels • Fuels infrastructure, including Codes/Standards • Demand and utilization, including intermediate blends BARRIERS Reducing Energy Demand of Buildings, Vehicles, and Industry • Coordinated implementation of model building codes • Market does not value efficiency • Cost of energy efficient technologies • Performance and reliability of new technologies BARRIERS Getting to “Speed and Scale” –Key Challenges National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

4. Harvesting Past InvestmentsFirst Generation Technology U.S. Renewable Electricity Installed Nameplate Capacity Sources: Chalk, AWEA, IEA, NREL, EIA, GEA National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

5. Technology Innovation Challenges RemainThe Next Generation • Wind Turbines • Improve energy capture by 30% • Decrease costs by 25% • Biofuels • New feedstocks • Integrated biorefineries • Solar Systems • Improved performance through, new materials, lower cost manufacturing processes, concentration • Nanostructures • Zero Energy Buildings • Building systems integration • Computerized building energy optimization tools National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

6. Achieving the Potential RequiresA Balanced Portfolio National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

7. Translational Science is Key to Speed and Scale Systems Biology Photoconversion Computational Science Connecting new discoveries, via applied research, to the marketplace National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

8. Market Growth is Enabled by Progressive Public Policy JAPAN CALIFORNIA National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

9. State Policy Framework Renewable Portfolio Standards Source: DSIRE database, March 2008 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

10. Technology Development Programs NREL R&D Portfolio • Renewable Resources • Wind and water • Solar • Biomass • Geothermal • Efficient Energy Use • Vehicle Technologies • Building Technologies • Industrial Technologies • Energy Delivery and Storage • Electricity Transmission and Distribution • Alternative Fuels • Hydrogen Delivery and Storage Foundational Science and Advanced Analytics National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

11. What Makes NREL Unique? Only national laboratory dedicated to renewable energy and energy efficiency R&D Collaboration with industry and university partners is a hallmark Ability to link scientific discovery and product development to accelerate commercialization National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

12. Enhanced NREL LeadershipThe “Alliance for Sustainable Energy” Approach Midwest Research Institute, Battelle, Colorado School of Mines, Colorado State University, University of Colorado at Boulder, Stanford University, and Massachusetts Institute of Technology National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

13. Managing the Lab-to-Market Interface • Partner with industry, universities, international community and state/local governments to deploy clean energy solutions • Hawaii training, DuPont CRADA, Xcel/SolarTAC • Contribute timely and definitive analyses on technology, policy, and market issues that impact commercialization • Provide investment community with credible information (industry growth forums) National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

14. Looking to the Future: NREL’s Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) 130,000 sq ft. multi-story building with high-bay and low-bay laboratories and offices Unique capability for testing and analysis to enable economic, reliable integration of renewable electricity, fuels, storage, and efficiency technologies with existing utility and fuels infrastructure National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

15. NREL FY2008 Program Portfolio Estimated $304 Million Weatherization $4M Facilities and Infrastructure $83.2 Solar $72M Transmission and Distribution $1.5M WFO $14.1M Bioenergy $30M Other DOE $11.5M Wind $31.6M Geothermal $4.1M Basic Sciences $12.7M FEMP $3.1M Vehicle Technologies $12.2 Buildings $9.7M Hydrogen $15M Updated March 2008 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

16. NREL Funding and Staffing National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

17. Wind Long Term Potential • 20% of the nation’s electricity supply • Today’s Status in U.S. • 16,850 MW installed at end of 2007 • Cost 6-9¢/kWh at good wind sites* • DOE Cost Goals • 3.6¢/kWh, onshore at low wind sites by 2012 • 7¢/kWh, offshore in shallow water by 2014 * With no Production Tax Credit Updated March 12, 2008 Source: U.S. Department of Energy, American Wind Energy Association National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

18. Wind • NREL Research Thrusts • Improved performance and reliability • Advanced rotor development • Utility grid integration Source: Megavind Report Denmark’s future as leading centre of competence within the field of wind power National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

19. Western Wind Resource National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

20. Solar – Photovoltaics and Concentrating Solar Power • Status in U.S. • PV • 824 MW installed capacity • Cost 18-23¢/kWh • CSP • 419 MW installed capacity • Cost 12¢/kWh • Potential: • PV • 11-18¢/kWh by 2010 • 5-10 ¢/kWh by 2015 • CSP • 8.5 ¢/kWh by 2010 • 6 ¢/kWh by 2015 Source: U.S. Department of Energy, IEA Updated January 28, 2008 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

21. CSP • Low cost high performance storage for baseload markets • Advanced absorbers, reflectors, and heat transfer fluids • Next generation solar concentrators NREL Research Thrusts PV • Higher performance cells/modules • New nanomaterials applications • Advanced manufacturing techniques 8.22-megawatt Alamosa, Colo., PV solar plant

22. Western Solar Resource National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

23. Buildings • Status U.S. Buildings: • 39% of primary energy • 71% of electricity • 38% of carbon emissions • DOE Goal: • Cost effective, marketable zero energy buildings by 2025 • Value of energy savings exceeds cost of energy features on a cash flow basis • NREL Research Thrusts • Whole building systems integration of efficiency and renewable features • Computerized building energy optimization tools • Building integrated PV April 10, 2008 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

24. Colorado Biomass Resource National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

25. Biofuels Current Biofuels Status in U.S. • Biodiesel – 165 companies; 1.85 billion gallons/yr capacity1 • Corn ethanol • 134 commercial plants2 • 7.2 billion gal/yr. capacity2 • Additional 6.2 billion gal/yr planned or under construction • Cellulosic ethanol (current technology) • Projected commercial cost ~$3.50/gge Key DOE Goals • 2012 goal: cellulosic ethanol $1.31/ETOH gallon or ~$1.96/gge • 2022 goal: 36B gal Renewable Fuel; 21B gal “Advanced Renewable Fuel”– 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act • 2030 goal: 60 billion gal ethanol (30% of 2004 gasoline) NREL Research Thrusts • The biorefinery and cellulosic ethanol • Solutions to under-utilized waste residues • Energy crops Updated February 2008 Sources: 1- National Biodiesel Board 2 - Renewable Fuels Association, all other information based on DOE and USDA sources National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

26. Pathways to Biofuels Transportation Fuels Ethanol & Mixed Alcohols Diesel* Methanol Gasoline* Diesel* Gasoline* & Diesel* Diesel* Gasoline* Hydrogen Ethanol, Butanol, Hydrocarbons BiodieselGreen diesel Feedstocks LignocellulosicBiomass (wood, agri, waste, grasses, etc.) Sugar/Starch Crops(corn, sugar cane, etc.) Natural Oils(plants, algae) Intermediates Syn Gas Bio-Oils Lignin Sugars Fermentation Catalytic synthesis FT synthesis Gasification MeOH synthesis Pyrolysis & Liquefaction MTG HydroCracking/Treating Ag residues, (stover, bagasse) Catalytic upgrading Pretreatment & Hydrolysis APP Catalytic pyrolysis Hydrolysis APR Fermentation Transesterification Hydrodeoxygenation * Blending Products National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

27. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) • Key Challenges • Energy storage – life and cost • Utility impacts • Vehicle cost • Recharging locations • Tailpipe emissions/cold starts • Cabin heating/cooling • ~33% put cars in garage • Status: • PHEV-only conversion vehicles available • OEMS building prototypes • NREL PHEV Test Bed • NREL Research Thrusts • Energy storage • Advanced power electronics • Vehicle ancillary loads reduction • Vehicle thermal management • Utility interconnection • Vehicle-to-grid National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

28. An Integrated Approach is Required National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

29. Renewable Energy:Enabling Economic Growth in Colorado • Plentiful resources • Centers of excellence • Supportive regulatory and business environment National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future

30. Visit us online at www.nrel.gov Operated for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy by Midwest Research Institute • Battelle National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future