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Geodemographic Modelling on the NGS

Geodemographic Modelling on the NGS. Andy Turner http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/a.turner/. Presentation Outline. Introduction MoSeS and Geodemographics Why NGS? Getting started Job submission using PBS Job submission using P-GRADE Further consideration. Introduction. Who am I?

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Geodemographic Modelling on the NGS

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  1. The NGS Roadshow Bath 2009-04-15 Geodemographic Modelling on the NGS Andy Turner http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/a.turner/

  2. Presentation Outline • Introduction • MoSeS and Geodemographics • Why NGS? • Getting started • Job submission using PBS • Job submission using P-GRADE • Further consideration

  3. Introduction • Who am I? • Who are you? • My introduction to e-Science and Grid Computing

  4. Who am I? • Background in mathematics and geographical information systems • Specialising in computational geography and e-Research • Researcher • Since 1997 • Java programmer • Since 2000

  5. Who are you? • Anyone who does: • Geography/Humanities/Social Science research? • Demographic research? • Modelling/Simulation work?

  6. My introduction to e-Science and Grid Computing • SIM-UK • March 2005 • MoSeS • July 2005 • Events and Training • Agenda Setting Workshops • UK e-Science All Hands Meeting • e-Social Science and the evolving e-Research community • Trying to get others going, making it easy for others to catch up and collaborate • Grid Computing • Crossing organisational boundaries • ‘The Grid’ • Language, hype and acronym soup

  7. MoSeS and Geodemographics • MoSeS started as a first phase research node of NCeSS • First phase funding ended 2008 • Sustained through indirect funding (collaboration) • EUAsiaGrid • GENESIS • Further funding being sought to develop applications and grow a user communities • NCeSS • UK National Centre for e-Social Science • MoSeS • Modelling and Simulation for/of/in e-Social Science

  8. Geodemographics • MoSeS core technical modelling work • For supporting applications in • Transportation research • Health and social care planning • Business • Pensions • Property markets • Essentially three parts • Population initialisation/reconstruction based on 2001 census data • Dynamic modelling of the population • Annual basis for 30 years • Enrichment with additional variables joined from auxiliary data • BHPS, epidemiology

  9. All MoSeS code we developed is open source and Java based • We used great tools developed by others • Netbeans • MPJ Express • Gridsphere • We did use a variety of computational resources • We got more results thanks to NGS • MoSeS was highly ambitious and we didn’t get as far as hoped

  10. Why NGS? • Resources available to me in 2006 • Beowulf 30 node School of geography machine • Spare White Rose Grid geography allocation • NGS • Security • Advised to be the right thing to do

  11. Getting started • Step 1 • Get a UK e-Science certificate • Develop a computer program that you want to run for a project • Base it on open source software • Step 2 • Get an NGS account with allocated resources for the project • Get a small amount for testing and if it runs out get some more

  12. Step 3 • Check that an NGS core site has the pre-requisite programs to run your program • For the most common languages, these exist • Step 4 • Copy your data and program to and NGS core site • Step 5 • Grid enable your program • Have a go at submitting the job by referring to available documentation • Turn to the NGS for help • Don’t struggle for ages • Be good at asking for help

  13. Job submission using PBS • GSI-SSH • I have downloaded a client • I have my UK e-Science certificate loaded into a browser • Let’s give it a go 

  14. Job submission using P-GRADE • Need an account on a P-GRADE portal • I use the one supported by colleagues at the University of Westminster • It requires that you have a certificate in a particular format and to load this to start • It provides a more user friendly interface • It required us to wrap the pbs submission in globus • http://ngs-portal.cpc.wmin.ac.uk/index.php/Main_Page

  15. Further considerations • EGEE and Virtual Organisations • Lowering the barriers even further • How else do I use NGS • The NGS oracle database backs the NCeSS Sakai Portal which contains numerous Worksites for my research including one of my blogs • Like JISC the NGS is supporting us fundamentally and with services being built by the e-research community which are back ended by NGS • It may be that an increasing number of NGS users are unaware that they are NGS users.

  16. Blogging and feedback • I have 2 blogs: • Daily blog hosted on the School of Geography Web Server • http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/people/a.turner/personal/blog/ • Events based blog hosted on the NCeSS Sakai Portal • http://portal.ncess.ac.uk/portal/site/%7Ea.g.d.turner%40leeds.ac.uk/blog.html • I am currently considering a change and consolidation of my blogs • Neither of my blogs are in the Web 2.0 interactive style • I had a brief foray into micro-blogging • identi.ca @agdturner • Twitter @agdturner • Now I understand the basics I might use a proven tool like WordPress • Please feedback/interact

  17. Thanks and Acknowledgements • e-Research community • NCeSS • EUAsiaGrid • University of Manchester • Alex Voss • University of Westminster • Gabor Terstyanszky • Tamas Kiss • Gabor Szmetanko • NGS • University of Leeds • Shiv Kaushal • Jason Lander • University of Manchester • Gillian Sinclair • Mike Jones • Matt Ford

  18. ACET/MPJ Express developers • Aamir Shafi • Bryan Carpenter • Mark Baker • University of Leeds • School of Geography • Centre for Computational Geography • EC/ESRC/JISC • Organisers • You

  19. My MoSeS Checklist • Outputs to be made as openly available as possible • Use appropriate standards • Automate with free and open source software. • Results to be replicable • Be open and up front about what we were trying to do and how • Adopt best practice and learn from others in NCeSS and think about what else they and what formed to be called the e-Research community wanted.

  20. Reflection on MoSeS • Never-ending story… • Too early to judge? • There are many positives: • I have learned a great deal over the last 3 going on 4 years and found a community of collaborators that I am happy and excited to work with. • I have developed a lot of structured information about me and my research interests. • I have participated in lots of surveys.

  21. Acknowledgements and Thanks • This work was supported by the ESRC under RES-149-25-0034. • Thanks to all involved in eResearch for your ongoing collaboration. • Special thanks to my NCeSS and MoSeS colleagues. • Thanks to the Oxford eResearch conference organisers. • Thank you for listening!

  22. MoSeS Rationale • The idea is to provide planners, policy makers and the public with a tool to help them analyse the potential impacts and the likely effect of planning and policy changes. • Example Application: • There may be a housing policy to do with joint ownership, taxation and planning restriction legislation that can be developed to alleviate problems to do with lack of affordable housing and workers without precipitating a crash in the housing market and economy as a whole • A balanced policy may be easier to develop by running a large number of simulations within a system like SimCity for real to understand the sensitivities involved

  23. Initial Tasks • Develop methods to generate individual human population data for the UK from 2001 UK human population census data • Develop a Toy Model • Dynamic agent based microsimulation modelling toolkit and apply it to simulate change in the UK • Develop applications for • Health • Business • Transport

  24. Challenges • Grid enabling the data and tools • Visualisation • Google Earth • Computer Games • Collaboration • Retaining a problem focus • Design and Development

  25. Generic MoSeS Approach • MoSeS to date has approached Modelling and Simulation from a specific angle • Geographic • Demographic • Contemporary • About the UK • Targeted towards supporting a developing set of applications • It is not a requirement to make it clear what steps can be followed by other Social Scientists wanting to Model and Simulate something different • However, the generic work of MoSeS should be relevant and we are working towards this

  26. MoSeS Vision • Suppose that computational power and data storage were not an issue what would you build? • SimCity • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SimCity • For real on a national scale

  27. MoSeS First Steps • The development of a national demographic model • The development of 3 applications • Health care • Transport • Business • The development of a portal interface to support the development and resulting applications by providing access to the data, models and simulations and presenting information to users (application developers) in a secure way

  28. Households

  29. Communal Establishments

  30. HSAR Aggregate HPControl Characteristics ISAR Aggregate CEP Control Characteristics

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