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Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change in Norway: previous studies and proposed new work

Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change in Norway: previous studies and proposed new work. Karen O’Brien and Lynn Rosentrater Department of Sociology and Human Geography University of Oslo CARAVAN Kick-Off Meeting 25-27 November 2008. Overview. Climate Research in Norway

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Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change in Norway: previous studies and proposed new work

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  1. Mapping Vulnerability to Climate Change in Norway:previous studies and proposed new work Karen O’Brien and Lynn Rosentrater Department of Sociology and Human Geography University of Oslo CARAVAN Kick-Off Meeting 25-27 November 2008

  2. Overview • Climate Research in Norway • Vulnerability: a multi-stressor approach • Future Directions

  3. The Norwegian Challenge: complex terrain

  4. Impact on growing season

  5. CAVIAR Framework

  6. CAVIAR case study sites Other sites added: Yamal, Lofoten, Clyde River, Nenets AO Russia, Wainwright AK, Gällivare, N Sweden

  7. Endringer i klimaet Samfunnsøk. sårbarhet Institusjonell sårbarhet Naturlig sårbarhet Tre kategorier av lokal klimasårbarhet Endringer i naturen Endringer i samfunnet Endringer i institusjoner Samla lokal klimasårbarhet

  8. Eksempel frå arbeid i Flora kommune • Bruke skulen til å kartlegge kva tema som vi skal starte med • Nedsette arbeidsgrupper • Tolke nasjonale/globale data i forhold til en lokal kontekst • Supplere nasjonale/globale data med lokale data • Gjere sårbarheitsvurderingar • Oppsummere og konkludere • Kommune-overgripande ROS analyse

  9. Vulnerability: a multi-stressor approach Adaptive Capacity Index Climate sensitivity • Employment in primary sector, % Economic capacity • Untied public income (taxes and gov transfers), NOK • Employment growth prognosis, % Demographic capacity • Dependency rate, % • Aging working population, % • Net migration rate, ave. 91-01 %

  10. Future trends in adaptation research (from Parson et al. 2003) “The next generation of additional efforts should focus principally on specific, coherently defined regions […] A regional approach can better take account of region-specific resources, vulnerabilities, management priorities, and adaptation options; can more effectively develop appropriate socioeconomic scenarios of the required level of detail; and can draw on fine-grained regional data and knowledge […] Perhaps most importantly, this regional approach could advance the assessment and implementation of adaptation options, by promoting sustained relationships with resource managers, industry experts, and other local stakeholders.”

  11. Directions for new work • Identify key factors that serve to constrain or facilitate adaptation (PLAN) • Mapping vulnerability (i.e. Yohe, et al. 2006) • with and without mitigation • with and without enhanced adaptation • Participatory processes and decision support (Rosentrater, in progress)

  12. GIS as a platform for adaptation planning

  13. Rationale for GIS • Provides a consistent framework for integrating spatial and other kinds of information within a single system • Ideal for interdisciplinary work • Decision-support for reducing vulnerability to hazards associated with current climate variability and extremes

  14. Case study: GIS for decision-support in agricultural planning • Climate sensitivity • Adaptive capacity • Synergies with mitigation

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