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The world dairy products outlook

The world dairy products outlook. A comparison of baselines: OECD, FAPRI, FAO and Canada European Commission. Main features of dairy markets. Outlook driven by strengthening demand stimulated by economic recovery in Asia, Latin America and Middle East

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The world dairy products outlook

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  1. The world dairy products outlook A comparison of baselines: OECD, FAPRI, FAO and Canada European Commission EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  2. Main features of dairy markets • Outlook driven by strengthening demand stimulated by economic recovery in Asia, Latin America and Middle East • Consumption of dairy products close to saturation in developed economies (except cheese) and rising in developing countries (higher disposable income, urbanisation, dietary changes) • Trade to show some growth (gains for NZ & AUS) and prices to rise EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  3. Main features of milk production • Global increase from 2000 to 2006: +67 mio t (+12%) OECD and 49 mio t (+9 %) FAO; • Growth in milk production to take place in non-OECD area (China, India, Brazil, Argentina and Mexico) (81 %, OECD); • Russia : still a question mark (FAPRI vs. OECD) • In the OECD area: mainly non-quota countries should show gains in milk production EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  4. World milk production(in million mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  5. Annual change in world milk production(selected countries, FAPRI data, in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  6. Australia & New Zealand milk production(in million mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  7. China milk production(in million mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  8. FSU milk production(in million mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  9. Main features for butter • Growth in production and consumption between 2 % (FAPRI - 0.8 mio t in total) & 2.5 % (OECD-1.1 mio t in total) per year on average. Most of it in developing countries (mainly in India in FAPRI and ROW-CH-ARG-FSU in OECD) • OECD outlook: stagnation in OECD area over 2000-2006 (I.e. -3.4% per capita), while 29 % in non-OECD area (I.e 18.3 % per capita) from 0.8 kg in 2000 to 0.94 kg (2006) • Most additional demand met by domestic production, yet scope for increase in trade (+89 000 in OECD; + 31 000 in FAPRI); 3 players on export side for around 90 % of total trade (EU; NZ; AUS) with little market share change • Prices: bottom out in 2000, then gradual recovery • Strong dependence on Russia (main import market) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  10. Butter per capita consumptionOECD data (in kg) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  11. Butter per capita consumptionIndia and BrazilFAPRI data (in kg) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  12. Butter per capita consumption - ChinaOECD data (in kg) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  13. Butter per capita consumption - FSU (in kg) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  14. World butter prices( in US $/t) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  15. World butter trade(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  16. Butter net exports - EU(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  17. Butter net exports - Australia(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  18. Butter net exports - New Zealand(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  19. Butter net imports - Russia(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  20. Main features for cheese • Cheese: dairy product displaying strongest gains • Production and consumption to grow between 11 % (FAPRI) and 15 % (2.6 % per year, OECD) with 60 % additional demand from OECD area (=86% of global use in 2000) and half of it from EU & US (non-OECD area: +36 %, I.e. 25 % per capita in OECD, mainly ARG, BRA, FSU, CH) • Most additional cheese demand met by domestic production, except Russia, Japan & ROW; Cheese trade expands 95 000 t in OECD and 130 000 t in FAPRI • Exports: AUS and NZ mainly winners; EU (slightly less) • Prices: increase steadily over the MT EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  21. World cheese production(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  22. Cheese per capita consumptionOECD data (in kg) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  23. Cheese per capita consumption - ChinaOECD data (in kg) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  24. Cheese per capita consumptionBrazil - FSU (in kg) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  25. World cheese prices( in US $/t) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  26. World cheese trade(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  27. Cheese net exports - EU(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  28. Cheese net exports - New Zealand(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  29. Cheese net exports - Australia(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  30. Cheese net imports - Russia(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  31. Cheese net imports - Japan(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  32. SMP outlook • Consumption: modest growth (around 1%) in FAPRI and OECD; decline in AFC (due to stagnation in OECD area linked to competition from whey powder and WMP in food processing and animal feed in EU) • Production to increase in non-OECD area (fall in OECD area); global increase at world level in OECD, stagnation in FAPRI, decline in AFC • Trade: fall in 2001 after sharp increase in 1999-2000, stagnation below 900 000 t over MT (stagnation in MEX, fall in JAP, only BRA shows some gains) • EU main loser; NZ & AUS to more profitable cheese markets; POL shows some gains • Price: fall in 2001 from high prices in 2000, moderate recovery EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  33. World SMP consumption(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  34. SMP per capita consumption OECD data (in kg) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  35. SMP per capita consumptionBrazil - FSU(in kg) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  36. World SMP prices( in US $/t) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  37. World SMP trade(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  38. SMP net exports - EU(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  39. SMP net exports - New Zealand(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  40. SMP net exports - Australia(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  41. SMP net exports - Poland(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  42. WMP outlook • Consumption: increase of 1.4 % (FAPRI) & 2.4 % (OECD) (mainly for milk reconstitution and in the non-OECD zone) • Trade to increase by 53 000 t (OECD) & 136 000 t (FAPRI) in …. the ROW (I.e. developing countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America)! • NZ show strong gains; AUS to a lower extent, ARG (gains in FAPRI, decline in OECD) • EU losing market share • Prices to increase over the MT EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  43. World WMP consumption(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  44. WMP per capita consumptionOECD data (in kg) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  45. WMP per capita consumptionBrazil - FSU (in kg) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  46. World WMP prices( in US $/t) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  47. World WMP trade(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  48. WMP net exports - New Zealand(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  49. WMP net exports - EU(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

  50. WMP net exports - Australia(in thousand mt) EU Commission - DG AGRI-A2

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