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Dairy Outlook 2013

Dairy Outlook 2013. Marin Bozic North Dakota Dairy Convention Mandan, ND November 6, 2012. Plan for today. Who is this guy and how do you pronounce his name? Taking a pulse of the U.S dairy sector The Big Mac( ro ): Why is U.S. GDP growth so slow? Long-term dairy dynamics: Global

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Dairy Outlook 2013

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  1. Dairy Outlook 2013 Marin Bozic North Dakota Dairy Convention Mandan, ND November 6, 2012

  2. Plan for today • Who is this guy and how do you pronounce his name? • Taking a pulse of the U.S dairy sector • The Big Mac(ro): Why is U.S. GDP growth so slow? • Long-term dairy dynamics: Global • Long-term dairy dynamics: Local

  3. How do you pronounce ‘Marin’?

  4. Dairy Food Marketing Economist • Funded by dairy check-off • Located at the University of Minnesota, but covering 10-state area • Research: • Risk Management • Price Analysis • Consumer Insights • Dairy Technology Assessment

  5. All-milk price: 2011-2012

  6. Milk Production: 2012 vs. 2011 Source: Daily Dairy Report

  7. Weather Outlook (Feb-Mar-Apr 2013) Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/

  8. Weather OutlookMay-Jun-Jul 2013

  9. Year-to-Year Changes in U.S. Milk Production

  10. Year-to-Year Changes in Milk Per Cow

  11. Difference in U.S. vs. InternationalCheese Prices

  12. Is Inflation a Problem?

  13. Growth vs. Deleveraging

  14. Income over Feed Costs Margin: 2004-2012

  15. The Kiwi Cycle(Change in Per Cow Milk Yield)

  16. Source: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/soi5.gif

  17. The Bottom Line High feed costs will keep milk production in check. Exports may falter, providing additional domestic supply. Some chance drought may stay with us. High volatility is the new normal, for several years at least. Tune-in after lunch for farm bill update

  18. Dairy Outlook 2013 presented at the 2012 North Dakota Dairy Convention Dr. Marin Bozic mbozic@umn.edu Department of Applied Economics University of Minnesota-Twin Cities 317c Ruttan Hall 1994 Buford Avenue St Paul, MN 55108 You may download this presentation at http://marinbozic.info/

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