Detailed Nifty Analysis 10 Aug 09

1. Detailed Nifty Analysis 10 Aug 09

2. Flashback, First. On 6/6/9, we sent a file to over 10000 people via different networks and lists. The file can be still downloaded at www.activetrades.in/downloads/Nifty669.pps On 18/6/9, we sent another file to even more number of people. Link is www.activetrades.in/downloads/Nifty1869.pps On 30/6/9, we sent another file to all our readers and clients. Link is www.activetrades.in/downloads/Nifty3069.pps

3. In the last presentation… We advised that below 4500, there could be a crack, and above 4600, there could be a sharp pullback. Below 4500, we saw an instant crack to 4400 zone, and above 4600, the high was 4720. As we have always advised that the previous high 4700 is a significant level and it came down from there. We clearly mentioned that monsoon will be a crucial factor going forward, and monsoon is something which is God Controlled and cannot be easily precalculated upon. So, markets took time and stayed in a zone before cracking down further. You can download the pps at www.activetrades.in/downloads/Nifty2579.zip

4. Nifty Long Term Chart Conclusion from the long term chart basic analysis: 1) The long term bullishness is still intact. 2) The R2 4400 is now broken, though insignificantly, leading way towards R3. 3) The R3 stands at 6000+ Meaning 6000 again?? As and when R1 broke Nifty went to R2. See the effect of it Nifty Long Term Chart: As it looks clear from the chart, the long term bullishness of Indian markets is still very much intact. The earlier supports are now resistances. Stiff resistances.

5. Summarizing the view, there is a critical level at 4700. 2 factors make it critical: a medium term multiple wave reactions, and the critical Fibonacci retracement. Though these levels are static, and that means that they will “never’ break, makes them seem little unrealistic because someday they will break. But looking at the past, these kind of patterns do affect the movement once or twice or even more than twice. Note that in the previous edition, we advised quite boldly that 4700 is a critical level. That level has never been seen again. Nifty corrected from 6358 to 2202, 4154 points. Note the critical level. Observe… 2202 to 4703 = 2501 = 61.8% of 4154. FIB4 Nifty Med Term Chart

6. Nifty Med Term Chart A double top at 4700 Crucial Point 4270-4300. Why? See next slide Once a support, now a resistance.

7. Summarizing, Nifty is bullish only above 4700. Though there should be pullbacks to 4550 and 4650-4700, and one may trade long there. But the movement would be of “pullback” and not “bullback” in nature. If 4700 sustains, we are in for 5100, 5400. If doesn’t holds, then the pattern will be bearish and below 4270, we may see 3400-3300. However there are in between supports and one may trade long on supports for pullbacks. Supports 4415, 4300-4270, 3900, 3400-3300. There is a possibility that Nifty moves in a parallel channel as shown. For that to happen, the index must hold 4300-4270. See the blue forward movements If 4270 breaks decisively, then a bearish M pattern may form. It might not stop before 3300. Thought in between supports are there.

8. Summarizing Summarizing, we still stick to the view that monsoon has to play a larger and crucial role. The effects of monsoon are: a direct impact on gdp, decreased rural spending capacity, increased deficit due to higher imports. Monsoon is unpredictable. Global economy, crude, inflation etc are all man made things, but nature is beyond anybody’s analysis and control. Hence the markets are stuck in a zone. They too are waiting for a direction. In the previous presentations we have underlined the prevailing situation that people are feeling left out and this gives an excellent cushion and till everybody gets chance to buy, markets are not going to sustain the correction. Corrections will come and go quickly. The same is keeping markets from falling despite heavy FII selling.

9. Summarizing Technically, 4700 is THE LEVEL. Nifty shouldn’t just cross, but it must sustain as well to move ahead. Given the worries of monsoon, it is very important to safeguard oneself. 4270-4300 a critical support now. We expect a bounce in this zone, which can be traded long. If the support holds, there is a chance of upside to 5200+ which can come if economic situation clears and improves. If breaks, this would amount to a very bearish M pattern, which could lead to a crash like situation in markets to 3300. Supports: 4415, 4300-4270, 3900, 3400-3300. Resistance: 4550, 4720.

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11. About Us: We “predicted” the kind of movements when nifty was on 2300 2500 band, and when all were bearish for 1800, 1000 whatever, we were bullish. We are not just saying it now, we made full graphic presentations to show that, and published for all. Our readers and subscribers have benefited a lot from it. And the biggest achievement we have is that during the bullish days, we had projected a tgt of 6354, and also said that if it didn’t cross, we are in for 5900-5500-5100-4400. We made a detailed presentation, fwdd to our readers, clients, communities and messengers! Noticably, we bought 5900PE when Nifty was lifetime high, and 5250 (the lowest available put at 5rs premium) and sold at whopping 700! These are the facts, and we do not intend to boast about anything. There are more than 8500 readers, who are also the beneficiary and witness to the same!

12. See how precisely we advised, and we even sketched the forward chart… And see the future movements indicated by grey and red. You can read the complete report at the Nifty View page.

13. The actual chart… It is an old chart. Now Nifty is around 4600+