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Declan Mulligan

An estimation of Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Agricultural Soils within the EU15 using a mechanistic model. Declan Mulligan. Table of Contents. Introduction. Modelling, data feedback 2. European Database Data sources, gaps, Uncertainties . Model description Why this model was chosen

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Declan Mulligan

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  1. An estimation of Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Agricultural Soils within the EU15 using a mechanistic model. Declan Mulligan

  2. Table of Contents • Introduction. • Modelling, data feedback • 2. European Database • Data sources, gaps, Uncertainties. • Model description • Why this model was chosen • Results • Comparison with IPCC • Conclusion

  3. Importance of this Study DG Env Monitoring Mechanism UNFCCC Secretariat EEA ETC ACC Member states Reference System • EU member states must gather greenhouse gas emission data (Kyoto Protocol) • EU reference system to assess and improve the quality of EU inventory produced by the Monitoring Mechanism. • Official data: • European Soil Bureau • Eurostat • GISCO • EMEP • Others… • Research • Modelling • Inventory estimation • Measuring campaigns

  4. Overview Data: Multiple Sources & Formats Access GIS Harmonized Geographical Database Process Based Model Results Alternative Scenarios

  5. 2. Model Database: Data Sources • EUROSTAT - http://europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat/ • GISCO – (GIS database) • New Cronos - (statistical database). • ESB (European Soil Bureau), IES JRC • http://ies.jrc.cec.eu.int/Projects/ESB/ • MARS (monitoring Agriculture with remote sensing) ,IPSC JRC • (climate & rapid areas estimate sites) http://mars.jrc.it/ • EMEP - (Co-operative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-Range Transmission of Air pollutants in Europe) • http://www.emep.int/ • FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. • IFA - International Fertiliser Industry Association.

  6. 2. Model Database: Geographic units • Model run daily for one year for each crop type within each predetermined geographic unit. • Grid or Administrative unit (i.e.Nuts ). • Nomenclature of territorial Units • for statistics • The scale of the unit should best represent the scale of input data. Digital Degrees

  7. 2. Model Database: Climate • 50 km Interpolated climate grid (MARS database). • 1500 meteorological stations received via the Global Telecommunication System (GTS) of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). • Daily data. • Maximum Air Temperature oC • Minimum Air Temperature oC • Precipitation mm • Mean wind speed (at 10m height) m/s • Mean Vapour Pressure hPa • Calculated Potential Evaporation mm • Calculated Global Radiation KJ/m2

  8. 2. Model Database: Climate

  9. 2. Model Database: Climate • Total N (NH4+ & NO3-) mg l conc. in rainfall from point source data (EMEP). • Paucity of Data. • EMEP 50 K grid data in mg N/m2)

  10. 2. Model Database: Soil Parameters • European Soil Database 1:1,000,000 • (European Soil Bureau).

  11. 2. Model Database: Soil Parameters • 10 x 10 km grid of dominant soil type/ soil profile linked to pedotransfer soil profile database. • Horizon 1 (top layer) • Classes

  12. SN TEXT USE ATC - FAO soil name - Topsoil textural class - Regrouped land use class - Accumulated mean temp. H(igh): > 6.0% (0.06) M(edium): 2.1-6.0% (0.021 to 0.06) L(ow): 1.1-2.0% (0.011 – 0.02) V(ery) L(ow): < 1.0% (0.01) 2. Model Database: Soil Parameters • Minimum and maximum soil values produce range wide enough to cover the true emission with a high probability. • Topsoil organic carbon content (OC_TOP) (0 - 25 cm) • Soil organic carbon (SOC) relation of 1:1.72 with soil organic matter.

  13. 2. Model Database: Soil Parameters • Model very sensitive to SOC. • Measured SOC data used for Italy • 1: 250,000 Soil Organic Carbon

  14. 0 No information 9 No texture (histosols, ...) 1 Coarse (clay < 18 % and sand > 65 %) 2 Medium (18% < clay < 35% and sand > 15%, or clay < 18% and 15% < sand < 65%) 3 Medium fine (clay < 35 % and sand < 15 %) 4 Fine (35 % < clay < 60 %) 5 Very fine (clay > 60 %) 2. Model Database: Soil Parameters • Dominant Surface Texture class

  15. SN USE - FAO soil name - Regrouped land use class L(ow): < 50% M(edium): 50-75% H(igh): > 75% 2. Model Database: Soil Parameters • Base saturation (%) as a proportion of the CEC taken up by exchangeable bases (TEB/CEC) Low base 5 - 6.5 pH Medium 6.5 – 7.5 pH High > 7.5 pH

  16. STR_TOP TEXT USE - Topsoil structure class - Topsoil textural class - Regrouped land use class L(ow): < 1.4 g/cm3 M(edium): 1.4 – 1.75 g/cm3 2. Model Database: Soil Parameters • Topsoil Packing Density (PD_TOP) PD = BD + 0.009*clay. Low < 1.45 g g/cm3 Med 1.45 – 1.75 g/cm3 High >1.75 g/cm3

  17. Model Database: Crop Area • New Cronos • Data reported at differing regional scales • Crop data • Nitrogen balance data

  18. Model Database: Crop Area • Crop data 1997

  19. Model Database: Crop Area • New Cronos data spatially disaggregated using areal weighting method based on Corine 100m landsclasses and regional trends.

  20. Model Database: Crop Area • Disaggregated Crop data. • Model contains default crop characteristics for the following crops

  21. Model Database: Manure Application • Manure application data • New Cronos 1997

  22. Model Database: Land Use • Disaggregated crop totals • Crop wise distribution of fertiliser based on IFA International Fertiliser Association data. • Irrigation index – ESB database • Fertiliser type – FAO data • Farm files generated using Mars data containing planting, harvest, fertilisation, and fertilisation rate • NO3 - Nitrates (low) • NH4HCO3 - Ammonium bicarbonate (high) • Urea (low) Very high useage in Italy. • NH3 - Anhydrous ammonia (low) • NH4NO3 - Ammonium nitrate (low) • (NH4)2SO4 - ammonium sulphate (high) • (NH4)2HPO4 - Di-ammonium Phosphate (low) • NH3 Volatilisation rate indicated)

  23. 3. Model • DNDC (Denitrification-Decomposition) • Satisfies more IPCC requirements than other models reviewed. • Simulation model of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) biogeochemistry for agroecosystems. • Simulates soil organic C and N dynamics, plant growth, N leaching, and emissions of trace gases including N2O, NO, N2, NH3, CH4 and CO2. • Can be used as a tool to predict long-term soil fertility variation, C sequestration capacity, and greenhouse gas fluxes under alternative climate change or management scenarios. http://www.dndc.sr.unh.edu/

  24. 3. Model From 1989-2001, the DNDC model has been continuously supported by the U.S. NSF, NASA, USDA, and EPA. Many researchers from the U.S., China, Germany, the U.K., Canada, the Netherlands, and Australia have made substantial contributions to development, validation, and application of the model.

  25. 4. Results: Nitrous Oxide emissions • Total N2O Kg N

  26. 4. Results: Nitrous Oxide emissions • Emission factors • N20 Kg N as percentage of total mineral and manure fertiliser applied.

  27. Results: Nitrous Oxide emissions

  28. Conclusion: • The results show that a wide range of emission rates often exceeding the IPCC rate. • This method is very dependent on accuracy of SOC data • The results would be improved by more accurate crop and fertilisation data. • Scenario analysis to be undertaken

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