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Calculating Deaths

Explore the correlation between lifespan and death rates to understand life expectancy variations and long-term mortality predictions. Utilize age-adjusted models and death fractions for accurate analysis.

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Calculating Deaths

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  1. Calculating Deaths 1/Lifespan versus Death Rate

  2. How Long Do We Live? • National Center for Health Statisticshttp://www.cdc.gov/nchs/releases/02facts/final2000.htm • Average US Lifespan: 76.9 years • Age-Adjusted Death Rate: 872/100,000

  3. Population Model #1a Deaths = 1/Average Lifespan * Population

  4. Population Model #1b Deaths = Death Fraction * Population

  5. What Should We Use As the Death Fraction? • Dwell time model • Use 1/Lifespan: 1/76.9 = .013003901 • Assumes population evenly divided into age groups. • Age-adjusted model • Death Rate = .00872 • Takes into account age-specific death rates and “averages” over age groups.

  6. What Will Be the Difference in the Long Run?

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