Project Design

1. Project Design Assumptions, Pre-conditions, Risks

2. LF Matrix: Assumptions The important events, pre-conditions, or decisions necessary for the achievement of the goals, objectives, outputs or activities. Link to statement of risks, for risk management.

3. Assumptions Factors important for fulfilment of goals or objectives, but outside the project’s scope A project does not exist in a social, economic and political vacuum. For its success it is dependent on norms, laws, ordinances, policies, political will and commitment, allocation of funds, and perhaps many other things.

4. If you started with a Problem Tree • Return to the problem tree • Identify all the “other” contributing root causes of the problem being addressed; • How much of the achievement of the objective or goal depends on addressing these other problems? = a clue on assumptions.

5. Problem Tree / Cause + Effect Cannot pay school fees Low standards of living Damage to property Investors don’t invest Lower productivity, job dissatisfaction, Social unrest High social discontent Low family incomes Companies have wrong staff for jobs High Unemployment Wrong skill set Job-seekers do not know of service Poor matching service Companies don’t use employment service Companies have poor HR divisions Few jobs available Poor database Ed. System not employment- oriented Education not available to all They don’t know about it No training in HR or recruitment Poor info distribution

6. If you started with a Vision • Identify other preconditions, constraints and hindrances; • Do any of these constitute assumptions?

7. Risk • Refers to the probability and effect on the project of an assumption failing to be true.

8. Risk Analysis and Risk Management • Analysis of the risks affecting the project’s objectives and plans to avoid these risks. • The persons / the project group that are responsible for the project must identify, analyse and assess different factors, which, in different ways, affect the possibilities available to the project to achieve its objectives.

9. Impact High Risk = High probability X High impact Low Risk = Low probability X Low impact Probability of failure Low probability, High impact risk High probability Low impact risk

10. External factors / risks: These are risks that exist outside the framework of the project (for example political developments, natural disasters, corruption etc.) • It is most often the case that the project group cannot exert an influence on these risks.

11. Internal factors / risks • These are risks of the type that are possible for the project to exercise control over. • They can be practical matters such as delays in deliveries, personnel turnover etc. • In most cases project management can minimise the effects of these internal risks.

12. An alternative look…

13. Is the assumption important? Yes No Don’t bring it up Almost certainly Will it hold true? Mention it, include it as something to watch, prepare for mitigation actions Possibly Is it possible to redesign the activity or project to reduce the importance of this factor?, Very Unlikely Yes No Redesign the project to reduce influence of this external factor. The project may not be feasible.

14. Risk decision tree

15. For Today • Check the assumptions, pre-conditions and risks associated with your project: • Internal: what are you going to do about them? • External: how serious are they? Use the decision tree(s) to determine whether or not you must redesign your project, or just have contingency plans ready.