Middle East – North Africa and Central Asia CORDEX domains: an overview (May 2014)

1. Middle East – North Africa and Central Asia CORDEX domains: an overview (May 2014) Grigory Nikulin Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

2. Establishing of the MENA CORDEX Domain • Regional Initiative for the Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources and Socio-Economic Vulnerability in the Arab Region (RICCAR) http://www.escwa.un.org/RICCAR/ • a few international agencies (UN-ESCWA, UNEP, WMO, UNISDR and FAO) and regional partners (ACSAD and League of Arab States), funded by SIDA (Sweden) • The RICCAR initiative was founded to assess climate change impacts on water resources over the Arab Region (started 2011) • A first step within RICCAR was to establish a common modelling domain for regional downscaling • This began independently from CORDEXbut advantages to following CORDEX standards quickly became apparent • About 10 different configurations of the MENA CORDEX domain were tested at SMHI with input from the regional partners partners (ACSAD, KAU, KAUST) • The MENA-CORDEX domain is based on user needs

3. MENA CORDEX Domain • Martin Juckesand Stephen Pascoe (BADC, UK) • North: including the Euphrates and Tigris catchment area • South: including the White Nile catchment • East: including the Arabian Sea (tropical storms from the Arabian Sea)

4. MENA CORDEX Modeling groups • Arab Center for the Study of Arid Zones and Dry Lands/League of Arab States (ACSAD) Damascus, Syria [RegCM] • BogaziciUniversity (BOUN) Istanbul, Turkey [RegCM and RCA4] • Centro EuroMediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Capua, Italy [CCLM4-21_clm2] • Climate Service Center Germany (CSC), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany [REMO2009] • The Cyprus Institute, Energy Environment & Water Research Center (CYI-EEWRC), Nicosia, Cyprus [WRF351] • Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research (CECCR), King AbdulazizUniversity (KAU), Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia [RegCM] • King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia [hi-res global GCM: GFDL-HiRAM] • Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrkoping, Sweden [RCA4]

5. CORDEX-MENA Matrix (RCMs-GCMs) 8 CMIP5 GCMs, mixed RCP45 and 85, 25 and 50km

6. MENA-CORDEX downloads (MNA-44) Most popular variables: minimum temperature, precipitation, mean, maximum temperature and wind • User needs: minimum temperature is important for agriculture

7. MENA-CORDEX downloads (MNA-22) Most popular variables: minimum temperature, precipitation, mean, maximum temperature and wind

8. MENA-CA ISSI proposal • International Space Science Institute (ISSI, Bern) call for proposals 2014 for International Teams in Space and Earth Sciences • the MENA-CA proposal was prepared for the ISSI call in 2013 but by a number of reasons has not been submitted • not so much resources provided in the call: support for two meetings in Bern and some funding for a PhD student • this year it was not so easy to find who can take the lead • with support from WCRP (Michel Rixen) Panos Hadjinicolaou (the Cyprus Institute) took the lead in the proposal (submitted) • 12 partners: JPL/NASA, ESA, DWD and all 8 MENA-CA RCM groups • establishing a MENA-CA network for regional modeling • to consolidate a number of space-based climate data records into the NASA Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES); • to develop a coordinated effort for a systematic assessment of historical MENA-CA CORDEX simulations • decision at the end of May 2014

9. CORDEX-Central Asia LeventKurnaz (BoğaziçiÜniversitesi - FizikBölümü, İstanbul) • RegCM4.1: • ERAINT (1989-2010) - done • ECHAM5 A1B (1970-2000, 2070-2100) -done • RegCM4.3.5: • HadGEM2 (hist. 1951-2005, rcp45 and 85 2006-2100) – done • MPI-ESM-MR – planned • IPSL-CM5A-LR – planned • RCA4 (planed)