GEM-MACH Global The Canadian Global Air Quality Modeling/Forecasting System

1. GEM-MACH GlobalThe Canadian Global Air Quality Modeling/Forecasting System Dr. Sunling Gong Science and Technology Branch January 16-17, 2012

2. Outline • Introduction to Canadian AQ forecasting system: GEM-MACH; • System structure; • Three major components; emissions, gases and aerosols; • Summary of applications.

3. "Multiscale" Examples:Three GEM Grid Configurations regional global limited area

4. GEM-MACH - Structure SMOKE Regional Data Canada & US Gas Phase Chemistry GEM Meteorology Transport Emission Interface Chemistry Interface CAM Canadian Aerosol Module Global Emissions ISORROPIA Equilibrium Scheme

5. Global Emissions

6. Implementation of Regional Gridded Emissions CAN wildfires 0.4 deg, hourly EU anthropogenic SA/EA anthropogenic 0.4 deg, hourly/monthly NA anthropogenic 42 km, hourly

7. GEM-MACH emission pre-processor • Combination of: • - global emission inventories from EDGAR/MOZART (“background”) • - continental/regional emissions from different sources (“AQ study domains”) • Current global emission maps: • - biomass burning, industrial, biogenic [EDGAR] (1) • - fossil fuel [Cooke, 1999] (2) • - biomass burning [Liousse, 1996] (2) • Current regional emission maps: • - Canadian wildfires (1)+(2) • - boreal and temperate vegetation fires (1)+(2) • - Canada and United States [AURAMS] (1)+(2) • - Asian anthropogenic, biomass burning [ACE-Asia & INTEX B] (1)+(2) (1) Gases, SO4, NO3; (2) BC, OC

8. North American Emissions AREA (gridded emissions)‏ Inventories - CAN 2006 - US 2005 - MEX 1999 Area emissions files contains - on road (cars, trucks, motorcycles, ...)‏ - off road (boat, train, construction vehicles, aircraft ...)‏ - other types (agriculture, industries, ...)‏ Major points sources (none gridded emissions)‏ - more than 10 000 major points sources - stack height > 30 m for Canada - stack height > 35 m for US

9. INTEX-B Area - Asia

10. Global BC/OM emissions Boreal and temperate wildland fires Fossil fuel use

11. Emissions of Pollutants and Precursors – sea-salt [Gong 2004, Monahan et al. 1986]

12. Emissions of Pollutants and Precursors – soil dust Ideal Threshold Friction Velocity Marticorena and Bergametti [1995]

13. Emissions of Pollutants and Precursors – soil dust Threshold Friction Velocity • Roughness Marticorena and Bergametti [1995] • Soil Moisture Fécan et al. [1999]

14. Emissions of Pollutants and Precursors – soil dust Horizontal and Vertical Fluxes r < 20 mm Marticorena and Bergametti [1995]

15. Gas Phase Chemistry

16. Gas-phase chemistry mechanisms Gas-Phase Chemistry, SOA formation (ADOM-II Mechanism, Odum or Jiang SOA approach, Vectorized Young&Boris Algorithm) Inorganic gas-phase processes usually included (Troposphere): NO2 - NO - O3 cycle. NO3 - N2O5 - HNO3 reactions (NOx Termination) OH - HO2 - H2O2 cycle (including H2O path!) HONO, HNO3, HNO4 formation and cycling SO2, CO oxidation by OH A look at some of these reactions:

17. Aerosols Dynamics

18. Aerosol Size Representations • Flexible model structure • Multi-components Simulations • Physically based size distribution • Numeric diffusion for particle growth • Computational intensive (large bin no.) • Flexible model structure • Computationally fast • Accuracy dependent on the form • of the mode distribution functions • Pre-defined size distributions

19. Clear Sky Dynamics Gas H2SO4

20. Dry Deposition Dry Deposition and Sedimentation Gases Particles • ADOM Scheme • Two-layer Scheme • Dry dep. for surface layer • SO2 • [Padro et al 1991] • Sedimentation for all layers • [Zhang et al., 2000] • Land Use Category • [EDC DAAC, 11 km] • 15 Surface Types

21. Wet Processes

22. Key Features • Major smog components: • CO, O3, SO2, NOx, NOy, PAN • PM (aerosol) components: • Sulphate, Black carbon, Organic Carbon, Soil dust, Sea-salt and Nitrate  PM2.5 and PM10 • AOD – aerosol optical depth

23. Real Time Forecasts ftp://ReadOnly:gong2010@ftp.tor.ec.gc.ca

24. GEM Version DM v 3.3.0 PHY v 4.5 Vertical 58 layers up to 0.1 hPa Horizontal resolution 2 2 Time step – 30 min Year: 2010 GEM Configurations

25. Dust Aerosol Assimilation lidar Satellite FY-2c SDS Observations Ground Obs. Data Assimilation CUACE/Dust Gong and Zhang 2007, ACP

26. SDS Assimilation Results Comparisons of CUACE/Dust forecasting results for 10 April 2006 with and without data assimilation. The symbols of “S”, “$”, “§”, “&” indicate floating dust, blowing dust, SDS, severe SDS, respectively, obtained from surface meteorological stations of CMA

27. Five Day Forecasts • Results Online to be downloaded: • Gases: CO, O3, SO2 • Aerosol Species PM10, PM2.5 Sulphate PM10 & PM2.5 Soil Dust  PM10 & PM2.5 • More offline results available

28. Types of Results online • Surface and 850 hPa concentrations; • Cross section at three longitudes to track the vertical transports along the Pacific; • Point vertical profiles to compare with station observations.

29. O3 O3

30. Dust Dust

31. Vertical profiles

32. Near North America Middle Pacific Near East Asia

33. Data Fusion on O3 Simulations D. Tarasick

34. Data Fusion on O3 Simulations D. Tarasick

35. O3 Reduction due to 20% Cuts in NOx and VOC in Asia (annual average)

36. Future Work

37. GEM-MACH Global Futures • Evaluations against observations: surface, satellites; • Interfaced with regional GEM-MACH to provide boundary and initial conditions; • Data assimilation capacity for a better forecast; • More ......

38. Thanks!