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Smart Statistics with Now-casting & Structural Breaks Analysis

Cassandra pioneers dynamic regression algorithms for real-time statistics now-casting and identifying structural breaks in time series data to enhance policy-making. Explore new data tools, platform development, and innovative techniques for smarter statistics.

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Smart Statistics with Now-casting & Structural Breaks Analysis

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  1. Now-casting and structural breaks analysis techniques for smart statistics Computer ASSisted ANalysis using Dynamic Regression Algorithms CASSANDRA JRC / EUROSTAT common activities on Big Data analytics

  2. Cassandra goals: • Exploit new "big" data tools to extract more value from official statistics • Develop a platform for now-casting of infra-annual indicators of policy relevance • Explore techniques to identify structural breaks in time series • Add value towards "Smart statistics"

  3. The challenge VVVs of data Evidence based policy making

  4. Nowcasting: estimate current value of indicator

  5. SARIMA approach

  6. Now-casting = forecasting r periods after TS r=3 • Current solution • Machine learning • Limited "new" sources • r between 1 and 6 • Confidence interval depends on use Conf. interval r=1 t Time series

  7. Cassandra: Now-casting Flexible, modular structure

  8. Finding structural breaks = "forecasting" last TS value • Current solution • Only "simple" model • r is 1 • Confidence interval depends on how sensitive Conf. interval r=1 t Time series (to t-1)

  9. Real life application: structural break in inflation?

  10. Confirmed increase until Jan 2017

  11. Cassandra: Tailored visualisation tools

  12. Cassandra: flexibility in input, methods, output • New sources of data • Text mining

  13. Cassandra team EUROSTAT Dario Buono Bogomil Kovachev Loredana Di Consiglio Fernando Reis JRC Panos Christidis Andris Peize Alexis Bolivar Álvaro Gomez Losada and growing! Contact: Panayotis.Christidis@ec.europa.eu

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