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A Method for the Hierarchy of CALMO_MAX Tests

A methodology to optimize and prioritize sensitivity tests for CALMO_MAX project, considering the vast combinations of model parameters. The method aims to assign priority orders to tests and make efficient use of computational resources. Presented by Euripides Avgoustoglou at the 20th COSMO General Meeting in St. Petersburg, on September 3rd, 2018.

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A Method for the Hierarchy of CALMO_MAX Tests

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  1. A MethodfortheHierarchyof CALMO_MAX Tests EuripidesAvgoustoglou HellenicNationalMeteorologicalService 20thCOSMO General Meeting, St. Petersburg September 3rd, 2018 1

  2. MOTIVATION Towardstheeffortofmodelopimizationandupongaugingthemodelsensitivity, when the number nofconsideredmodel parameters increases, the number of their pair combinations regarding their min and max values vastlyincreases [O(2n)2]. In CALMO_MAX project , consideringanextensiveperiodof COSMO Modeltestingoforder 1 yearover a horizontalgridof ~1km, thenumberoftestsbecomesofO[102(2n)2] andupontheaccountingofintermediateparametervaluesregardingtheuseof a metamodel, thenumberoftestsrisestoO[103(2n)2] ortheequivalentofrunsfor 3 centuriesforn=5 !! An efficientmethodology to constrain thenumberoftestsshould be to indicate their impact according to some quantitativecriteriaanddecideupontheresultingpriority. The methodology is expected to beofpracticalvalueif two goals could be accomplished: The tests get a priority orderandareperformed according to it. If the number of tests becomes too extensive, the methodshould be flexible enough to be terminated at the priority that suits the available computational resources. The recommended truncation, however, needs to be supported by somevalid scientific arguments regarding the relative importance of the tests that will be includedagainstthosethatwillbeomitted. 2 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  3. The proposed methodology will be presented in STEPS andin reference to theweb presentation in the 17th COSMO GeneralMeeting in Wrocław: “Design and Evaluation of Sensitivity Tests for CALMO Project” available at: http://www.cosmo-model.org/content/consortium/generalMeetings/general2015/parallel.htm andreferredasEA_COSMO_GM_2015herein. 3 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  4. STEPS OF THE METHOD 4 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  5. STEP 1 Decide the domain where the metamodel will be used for optimization. In the application of the method, a domain that includesSwitzerlandandNorthernItalyareasover a horizontalgridof ~1Km ischosen, i.e. 5 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  6. STEP 2 Choose the parameters that will be optimized by the meta model. 6 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  7. But how the priority orderis going to be given? This is presented in the following steps … 7 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  8. STEP 3: Decide on the model variables that will be used and tabulate them according to their importancedenotedasranking. At this stage of the work,this step is subjective but in my opinion, it can be done on meteorological arguments based on the internal knowledge of the model. The variables that arerecommended beloware as given in EA_COSMO_GM_2015but with some rearrangement according to their subjectively estimated importance. The subjective criteria on making this choice are not of importance for the presentation of the method and can be discussed at a later stage. < TOT_PREC>: 0-24 hrperiodaccummulatedprecipitation (kg m-2). < TMIN_2M>: Minimum 2m temperature 0-24 hrperiods (everyhr). < TMAX_2M>: Maximum 2m temperaturefor 0-24 hrperiods (everyhr) < T_2M >: 2m temperaturefor 0-24 hrperiods. < TD_2M >: Dewpointtemperaturefor 0-24 hrperiods. < SNOW_GSP >: 0-24 hrperiodsaccumulatedgrid-scalesnow (kg m-2) < CLCM >: Mediumcloudcover (%) averageof 1hr timesteps 03-24 hs. < CLCL >: Lowcloudcover (%) averageof 1hr timesteps 03-24 hs. < CLCH > : Highcloudcover (%) averageof 1hr timesteps 03-24 hs. 8 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  9. STEP 4: Define the sensitivities (S)of these parameters. Thisisalso a matter ofchoice. I follow the choice made in EA_COSMO_GM_2015. 9 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  10. STEP 5: Perform allthe model runs for the dates chosen for all the default values of the parameters chosen and produce at least all the considered variables mentioned before. Perform allthe model runs for the dates chosen for all the max values of the parameters chosen and produce at least all the considered variables mentioned before. Perform all the model runs for the dates chosen for all the min values of all the parameters chosen and produce at least all the considered variables mentioned before. In what follows, theresultsfromCALMO_MAXareusedforthewhole 2013. 10 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  11. STEP 6: Present the sensitivity of the variable of thehighestrankingin a spider-typegraph, i.e TOT_PREC. TOT_PREC (%) 11 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  12. Analysisof STEP 6 The red polygon refers to the zero sensitivity “axis”. The sensitivities are depicted with green bullets. Thedashedpolygonlinethatconnectsthedots, althoughnotneccessaryinthepresentformofthemethod, denotesopticallytheoverall sensitivity fortheconsideredmeteorologicalvariableespeciallytothedegreethatitisconvex/concaveandmainlyinreferencetothezero sensitivity redpolygon. 12 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  13. STEP 7: Evaluatetheabsolutevaluesofthepairdifferencesforalldifferentparametersensitivitiesgiveninthespider-typegraphs. Sortthesevaluesandplacethemnexttotheircorrespondingspidergraph «priority list». A valueof «+1» or «-1» isalsoaddressedtothesedifferencesdependingwhetherthesubstractedsensitivitieshavethesameordifferentsigns (i.e., theyareatthesameoroppositesideofthesensitivity axis. Thedifferenceswiththehighestabsolutevalueandsensitivitieswithdifferentsignsrefertothefirstgroupofcombinationofparameterswiththehighest priority. Thedifferenceswiththehighestabsolutevalueandsensitivitieswiththesamesignrefertothesecondgroupofcombinationofparameterswiththehighest priority. Thesameprocessisfollowedforalltheconsideredmeteorologicalfiedsaccordingtotheirestimatedimportance. 13 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  14. EXAMPLE OF STEP 7 TOT_PREC (%) 14 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  15. Nevertheless ,thespider-graphsprovide a fairindicationofthemostsensitiveparameters. However, itishiglyrecommendedtoputspecialcareontheaxisscaling. PANORAMA OF SENSITIVITIES OVER THE WHOLE 2013 CLCH CLCM CLCL CLCT SNOW_GSP TOT_PREC T2m Td 15 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  16. T2m Tmax_2m T2m_18UTC Td PANORAMA OF SENSITIVITIES OVER THE WHOLE 2013 Tmin_2m T2m_06UTC Inthepresentanalysis, T2m, Tmax_2m, Tmin_2m, T2m_18UTC, T2m_06UTC displayessentiallythesamesensitivity. 16 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  17. Practically, themostsensitiveparametercombinationscanbedirectlyaddressedfromthespider-graphs ! CLCH CLCM CLCL CLCT SNOW_GSP TOT_PREC T2m Td 17 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  18. Underthepreviousanalysis, theresultingpriorityboarddepictsallsensitivitiesandfurthertestingstrategiescanbedeveloped. PRIORITY BOARD FOR THE WHOLE 2013 18 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  19. EXTENSION OF THE METHODOLOGY: Theaboveanalysiscanbereadilyusedtogetimportantinsighttoseasonalormonthlysensitivitythroughmodifiedspidergraphs. 19 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  20. CLCH MonthlySensitivities !Differentscales. Thegraphwiththelargestscalerangedenotesthemostsensitiveparameter! 20 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  21. !Samescales CLCH (YearlyvsMonthlySensitivities) 21 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  22. MonthlySensitivitiescombined CLCH 22 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  23. YearlyandMonthlySensitivitiescombined CLCH 23 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  24. CLCM MonthlySensitivities 24 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  25. CLCM (YearlyvsMonthlySensitivities) 25 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  26. MonthlySensitivitiescombined CLCM 26 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  27. YearlyandMonthlySensitivitiescombined CLCM 27 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  28. CLCL MonthlySensitivities 28 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  29. CLCL (YearlyvsMonthlySensitivities) 29 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  30. MonthlySensitivitiescombined CLCL 30 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  31. YearlyandMonthlySensitivitiescombined CLCL 31 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  32. CLCT MonthlySensitivities 32 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  33. CLCT (YearlyvsMonthlySensitivities) 33 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  34. MonthlySensitivitiescombined CLCT 34 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  35. YearlyandMonthlySensitivitiescombined CLCT 35 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  36. SNOW_GSP MonthlySensitivities 36 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  37. SNOW_GSP (YearlyvsMonthlySensitivities) 37 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  38. MonthlySensitivitiescombined SNOW_GSP 38 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  39. YearlyandMonthlySensitivitiescombined SNOW_GSP 39 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  40. TOT_PREC MonthlySensitivities 40 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  41. TOT_PREC (YearlyvsMonthlySensitivities) 41 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  42. MonthlySensitivitiescombined TOT_PREC 42 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  43. YearlyandMonthlySensitivitiescombined TOT_PREC 43 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  44. T2m MonthlySensitivities 44 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  45. T2m (YearlyvsMonthlySensitivities) T2m 45 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  46. MonthlySensitivitiescombined T2m 46 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  47. YearlyandMonthlySensitivitiescombined T2m 47 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  48. Tmin2m MonthlySensitivities 48 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  49. Tmin2m (YearlyvsMonthlySensitivities) 49 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

  50. MonthlySensitivitiescombined Tmin2m 50 EuripidesAvgoustoglou HNMS, 20th COSMO GeneralMeeting, September 3rd 2018

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