Neighborhood Assessment: Technical Issues to be investigated in the Wilmington Air Quality Study

1. Neighborhood Assessment:Technical Issues to be investigated in theWilmington Air Quality Study Vlad Isakov Todd Sax May 06, 2003 California Air Resources Board

2. Neighborhood Assessment • Neighborhood Assessment Program: • to develop and test methodologies for evaluating the impacts of air pollution on a neighborhood scale. • First study: Barrio Logan project • Barrio Logan Modeling Protocol • Discussed previously • Peer reviewed in July 2001 • Second: Wilmington Air Quality Study (WAQS) • Developing new protocol specific to Wilmington • Improvements based on lessons learned in Barrio Logan • Protocol expanded for improved model evaluation May 6, 2003 California Air Resources Board

3. Status of Barrio Logan • Emissions • Microscale inventory completed • Modeling • Microscale Modeling • Microscale modeling completed • Point / area sources (ISCST3) • Mobile sources (CAL3QHCR) • Tracer study • Regional Modeling • Regional modeling completed (CALGRID, CMAQ) • Integration of Model Results • In progress May 6, 2003 California Air Resources Board

4. Summary of Technical Issues • Emissions • Spatial and temporal allocation • Data accuracy • Modeling • Microscale Modeling • Model selection • Point / area sources (ISCST3, AERMOD, CALPUFF) • Mobile sources (CALINE, ISCST3, AERMOD) • Regional Modeling • Model selection (CALGRID, CMAQ, CAMx) • Time period modeled (meteorology / averaging procedure) • Run-time / disk space • Spatial resolution (4km) • Integration of Model Results • Double counting May 6, 2003 California Air Resources Board

5. Why Wilmington? • Identified as one of the communities most impacted by air pollution in the Los Angeles region by the SCAQMD in 1998. • Located in close proximity to major freeways, ports, petroleum refineries, and other sources. • Neighborhood sources located in close proximity to residential areas. May 6, 2003 California Air Resources Board

6. Wilmington Modeling Domain May 6, 2003 California Air Resources Board

7. Status of Wilmington • Developing Protocol (In-progress) • Developing Inventory (In-progress) May 6, 2003 California Air Resources Board

8. Microscale Inventory:Lessons Learned from Barrio Logan • Point Sources • Most neighborhood sources not a concern • Near source impacts could be an issue • Stack data are required - often limited • On-Road Sources • Travel demand models • Not all roadways covered • Spatial resolution is limited • Vehicle volume and classification - general assumptions • Need to account for all roadway emissions in microscale • Off-Road Sources • Need to account for off-road emissions in microscale May 6, 2003 California Air Resources Board

9. Microscale Inventory:Methodology for Wilmington • Industrial and Commercial Facilities - Expanded • Large facilities • Multiple inventory data sources and on-site surveys • Neighborhood Sources • On-site surveys • On-Road Sources - more detailed • Enumerate and assess assumptions • Sensitivity studies and comparison to vehicle counts • Off-Road Sources - major focus • Bottom-up inventory, all source categories at port • On-site surveys May 6, 2003 California Air Resources Board

10. Microscale Inventory: Sources in Wilmington Emissions: Industrial and Commercial Facilities • 405 facilities-toxics / 259 -criteria • 170 surveyed facilities • Enhanced QA/QC in progress • Review by SCAQMD and selected facilities in progress. On-Road Emissions • Link-Based Inventory (>2000 links) • Evaluation in progress Marine Terminals and Related Off-Road • Port-specific inventories May 6, 2003 California Air Resources Board

11. Model Evaluation in Wilmington • Sensitivity studies • Tracer studies (to ensure models provide reliable estimates) • Near-field (<50m) (done previously) • Local-scale (50m - 2 km) • ground level release (done previously) • Wilmington - elevated (stack) release. Scheduled for 2003 -2004 • Supplemental short-term monitoring • Uncertainty analysis • Gasoline Stations • Diesel PM in modeling domain May 6, 2003 California Air Resources Board

12. Wilmington: Lessons Learned So Far... • Industrial and Commercial Facilities • 90% tox-weighted emissions (from facilities) • Cancer: diesel PM, CrVI, 1,3 butadiene, benzene, cadmium. • Chronic: 12 pollutants • Complex point sources - neighborhood scale risk • On-site mobile source emissions contribute to traditional point source facility risk • Neighborhood sources - potential near-source risk • gasoline stations, dry cleaners, small complex point sources • Need correct emissions locations • Stack data are limited - defaults must be assigned May 6, 2003 California Air Resources Board

13. Continuing Work • Emissions • Better understand accuracy and uncertainty • What spatial resolution can be achieved? • Identify “sources that matter” • Reduce resource requirements for future applications • Modeling • Microscale • Tracer study - evaluate model choice for stack-type releases • Toxics monitoring - help interpret model results • Uncertainty analysis - understand how assumptions affect model results • Regional and Integrated Model Results • Double counting - ensure reliable model predictions May 6, 2003 California Air Resources Board