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Enhancing Gas Demand Scenario Accuracy: A Comparative Approach

Explore the impact of intermittent renewable energy on gas demand, analyze seasonal scenarios, and include third-countries in projections. Improve transparency and coordination with ENTSO-E for consistent TSO assumptions.

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Enhancing Gas Demand Scenario Accuracy: A Comparative Approach

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  1. TYNDP 2013-2022 SJWS #3Demand TYNDP 2013-2022 – 3rd SJWS 08 March 2012 ENTSOG offices -- Brussels

  2. TYNDP 2011-2020 Feedback Climatic criteria and alternatives • Seasonal scenarios are more meaningful than yearly ones • Additional top-down scenarios considering macro-economic indicators (population, GDP) the implementation of environmental and energy policy and alternative fuel mixes • Impact of intermittent renewable power generation on gas demand • Inclusion of third-countries as Norway and Turkey • Higher transparency on the (individual) TSO’s underlying assumptions • Consistent TSOs’ underlying assumptions Comparative approach with other outlooks • Coordination with ENTSO-E needs to be ensured • Other outlooks could be also used in the modelled scenarios • Analysis would have to be developed in order to check the consistency with renewable energy on a country-specific basis

  3. Previous Discussion TYNDP 2011-2020 Current report covers: Demand scenario coming from TSOs (best estimates) • An Average Daily Demand • A High Daily Demand (1-in-20 in most countries) Annual demand scenarios coming from Eurogas, IEA and Primes • An Average Daily Demand Only TSOs and Primes scenarios provide data on a country basis SJWS#1 Input ENTSOG should introduce an additional demand scenario based on MSs’ demand forecasts A list of criteria should be defined for consideration by TSOs when forecasting demand, incl. a check list for national Renewables Action Plans (NREAPs) Transparency of assumptions and the origin of the forecast may be more important than a common set of criteria It is necessary to combine bottom-up and top-down approach

  4. Improvement directions Upgrade the consistency and transparency in the assumptions and methodologies Attention to power generation dynamics: link between electricity and gas systems Consideration of the EU political goals

  5. Demand Scenario vs. Demand Case Scenario A demand scenario defines the gas demand evolution during the forecasting horizon, consequence of the assumptions taken for a certain number of variables explaining the environment on which, the gas demand is evolving. A demand scenario may include one or several demand cases. Case A demand case defines the gas demand level on a temporary basis (yearly, seasonal, daily, …). Different daily demands under different conditions (temperature, working day….) are demand cases under a single demand scenario.

  6. Definition of Scenarios and Cases Consistency and transparency in the defined scenarios • The TSOs bottom-up scenario will be the main demand scenario considered in TYNDP. • The clarification of the underlying assumptions in the TSOs demand forecasts has been identified as the feasible improvement target. It’s possible extent and level of detail is being analysed, and will be discussed in following SJWSs. • Other demand issues that will be investigated and further discussed in the future are: • The introduction of additional top-down scenarios • The collection and inclusion of the gas demands projected in the NREAPs. Definition of demand cases • The implementation of the consistency and transparency targets may be approached through the definition of demand cases under harmonized levels of risk.

  7. High daily (peak) Cases • The high daily demand in TYNDP 2011-2020 • The EU high daily demand forecast has been limited to the aggregation of the high daily demand level for each country. • These high daily demand levels are estimated by TSO under different risk levels according to the national standards. • These values define the network requirements in terms of transmission capacity determining the network development needs. Therefore have to be understood as the most influential value of any TSO’s demand estimations. • The perceived lack of consistency • The diverse levels of risk – defined under national standards – may have induced the perception of lack of consistency. • The demand figures in TYNDP should be consistent with the demand figures used in the national plans  The determination of consistent demand cases will be done in addition and will not replace the demand level defined under the national standards.

  8. High daily (peak) Cases • Simultaneity of occurrence • A priori, assuming the simultaneous occurrence of the peak demand in every country may seem an unrealistic scenario. • A deeper analysis of the gas demand simultaneity will be required. • Gas Demand for power generation • The gas demand for power generation must be treated independently. • Consistency is required between ENTSOE’s and ENTSOG’s TYNDPs. • Electricity generation scenarios • Installed capacities of gas fired power generation facilities • The installed capacities ma give an idea of the potential gas consumption of the power generation facilities, but it will be probably far from the expected peak demand consumptions. • The analysis of electricity generation scenarios is out of the scope of gas TSOs

  9. High daily (peak) Cases • A complete approach of the high daily demand will have to track: • consistency between the figures in TYNDP and National Plans • consistency between the figures from different countries • consistency with the electricity TYNDP • the lack of simultaneity in the occurrence of the high daily demands

  10. High daily (peak) Cases • DC: Design Case • The design case is the high level of demand calculated according to the national standards that is used by TSO’s to assess the network capacities and needs of development. The design case is the high daily demand considered in the national plans. It is disaggregated between gas for power generation, and gas demand for other uses. • UP: Undiversified Peak • The undiversified peak is the high level of demand calculated by TSOs under a harmonized level of risk, following a common methodology – when possible. This demand case considers the simultaneous occurrence of the so calculated high level of demand in every country. • DP: Diversified Peak • The diversified peak is a demand case derived from the UP level. In the diversified peak the lack of simultaneity in the occurrence of the high levels of demand mitigates the demand peak.

  11. Average Seasonal Cases • In TYNDP 2011-2020, the average daily demand (1-in-2) was the scenario in which the Market Integration was assessed. • A better description of the system behaviour under normal conditions, could increase the significance of the results. • The replacement of this figure by the average winter and average summer days reflecting the seasonal swing may favour the representativeness of the figures. Winter average Average daily demand Summer average

  12. Thank You for Your Attention ENTSOG -- European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas Avenue de Cortenbergh 100, B-1000 Brussels EML: info@entsog.eu T: + 32 2 894 5100 WWW: www.entsog.eu

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