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More Details climlab4as.ncsu Climate Modeling Laboratory NC State University

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More Details climlab4as.ncsu Climate Modeling Laboratory NC State University

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  1. On Recent Research Developments at NC State University Relevant to the MSU NSF Biocomplexity Project‘An Integrated Analysis of Regional Land-Climate Interactions’9/19-21/03Fredrick H. M. SemazziNorth Carolina State UniversityDepartment of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences&Department of Mathematics

  2. More Detailshttp://climlab4.meas.ncsu.eduClimate Modeling LaboratoryNC State University

  3. Demonstration of ENSO • Dominant air/sea process of the tropical oceans • Creates a shift in the Walker Circulation with an associated shift in Indian Ocean SST • Greater Horn of Africa generally becomes wetter during a warm ENSO event • Not all anomalous rainfall events are associated with ENSO. (Webster, http://paos.colorado.edu/~webster/mw/paper/naturepaper.html)

  4. Global Warming Trend

  5. Customization of RCMs for Downscaling

  6. MODEL NUMERICAL DOMAIN Example of a Nested Climate Model Domian Inner domain Outer domian

  7. Eastern Africa Homogeneous Climatic Zones(Matayo & Semazzi, 1999)

  8. Optimization of Regional Numerical Models

  9. Observations NCSU-RegCM2 Model PERFORMANCE IN SIMULATING INTERA-SEASONAL VARIABILITY(RegCM2-NCSU Version – Semazzi et al, 1999)

  10. Importance of large lakes over Eastern Africa

  11. Orography & Large Lakes

  12. PERFORMANCE IN SIMULATING VARIABILITY AT WATERSHED SCALES – Semazzi et al (2002) - Coupled POM-RegCM2 model for Lake Victoria Basin-

  13. Ensemble Model Prediction Research

  14. Advantages of Ensemble Climate Model Projections(Palmer et al, 1999)

  15. Dominant Modes of Climate Variability Over Eastern Africa

  16. Global Warming Trend

  17. Rain Gauge Data comes from 144 stations (1961-90) • CMAP has a 2.5° Resolution (1979-2001) • Averaged for OND

  18. Construction of EOF Time Series Correlation = Matrix =Data data map at t=kth Column . E0Fi , amp 1 Var=1 amp (E0Fi , t=k) t:=n E0Fi ,ampi Var=i t:=1 t:=k t:=n E0Fi , ampp Var=p t:=1 t:=n

  19. CMAP RAINFALLANALYSIS 1979-2003 El-Nino Climate Indian Ocean/El Nino Climate Change Mode

  20. Rainfall Project: Period 2071 to 2100 relative to the period 1961 to 1990 (SRES scenario B2) Enhanced El-Nino Climate activity Similar to current changes

  21. Conclusions • ENSO and the Indian Ocean dipole have the strongest influence on rainfall in the East Africa • Both have the similar effect on the region, so they are indistinguishable in our analysis • The next strongest influence comes from Global Warming • GCM reasonably reproduce both ENSO and Global warming modes over Eastern Africa. • We should expect the regional climate models to improve over the regional simulations produced by GCMs • Ensemble Model Prediction produces superior results

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