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Seasonal Climate Outlook for Summer 2013 over DPRK

Explore the seasonal climate outlook for Summer 2013 over DPRK, including recent climate features, ENSO monitoring and prediction, dynamic and statistical predictions. Get insights into temperature and precipitation variations, ENSO conditions, and predictions for Niño 3.4 index.

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Seasonal Climate Outlook for Summer 2013 over DPRK

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  1. Seasonal Climate Outlook for Summer 2013 over DPRK Pong-Chol Choe, Chol-Min Kim Central Meteorological Forecasting Center, SHMA, DPR Korea

  2. Contents 1. Recent Climate Features 2. ENSO Monitoring & Prediction 3. Dynamic & Statistical Predictions

  3. 1. Recent Climate Features

  4. Variation of Temperature in Summer(JJA)

  5. Variation of Precipitation in Summer(JJA)

  6. The State of Climate in Summer 2012 (JJA) • Mean temperature21.7℃(+0.4℃) • Jun. 19.5℃(+0.8℃) • Jul. 22.4℃(+0.2℃) • Aug. 23.1℃(+0.8℃) • Precipitation 757.6㎜(136％) • Western part 754~1081㎜(129~185％) • Eastern part 365~951㎜(71~185％) • Northern Inlandregion 447~925㎜(97~202％)

  7. The State of Climate in Winter 2013 (DJF) • Mean temperature-8.1℃(-2.3℃) • Dec. -9℃(-3.9℃) • Jan. -9.2℃(-1.1℃) • Feb. -6.2℃(-1.7℃) • Precipitation 55.3㎜(+13.1㎜) • Dec. 22.5㎜(+6.7㎜) • Jan. 12.9㎜(+0.3㎜) • Feb. 19.9㎜(+6.2㎜)

  8. 2. ENSO Monitoring & Prediction

  9. Tropical Pacific SSTA FEB 2013 Time-Longitude SSTA (5N-5S) Recent ENSO Condition -0.6℃ Equator Temperature Anomaly Profile FEB 2013 Mean SSTA in Niño3.4 area

  10. ENSO Prediction of CMFC Pacific SSTAprediction by analogue method for summer(JJA) (1977, 1994) 6-month prediction of Niño 3.4 index by statistical methods Niño 3.4 index: near or above normal But significance : relatively low

  11. 3. Dynamic & Statistical Predictions

  12. Dynamic Prediction by CAM3.0 ∘ Meridional circulation : strengthened in middle latitude of East Asia ∘ Okhotsk high : stronger ∘ West Pacific Subtropical High : weaker than normal Interpreting the model ∘ Temperature: near normal ∘ Precipitation: below or near normal JJA 500 hPa mean and anomaly

  13. Physical and Statistical Prediction 500hPa Height Prediction & Anomaly by Seasonal Variation in Atmospheric Circulation Temperature: near Normal Precipitation: below or near normal Composition years : 1973, 1980, 1992, 2005, 2011

  14. Monsoon Activity normal Nearor above normal T : near normal R : below normal Abnormal Precipitation and Temperature Predicted by MPI and Niño 3.4 Index for Summer

  15. Summary 1. Seasonal climate outlook for summer 2013 over DPRK • Temperature : Near normal • Precipitation : Below or near normal • Cooling summer over the eastern coast area will be appeared • 2. Monsoon activity: Near normal • 3. Okhotsk high will be stronger and West Pacfic Subtropical High weaker than normal

  16. Thank you !

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