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Climate Outlook – February 2013

Climate Outlook – February 2013. Cool-Neutral ENSO Conditions Continue. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season. NDJ 2012-13 SST forecast from Oct. Correlation ( w.r.t . map average) Glob 0.45 Trop 0.36 Uncentered correlation ( w.r.t . clim average):

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Climate Outlook – February 2013

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  1. Climate Outlook – February 2013 Cool-Neutral ENSO Conditions Continue

  2. SST forecast and Obs for Recently Completed Season NDJ 2012-13 SST forecast from Oct Correlation (w.r.t. map average) Glob 0.45 Trop 0.36 Uncentered correlation (w.r.t. clim average): Glob 0.55 Trop 0.48 NDJ 2012-13 SST obs anom (deg C)

  3. Verification of Most Recent Season Precipitation Forecast NDJ 2012-13 precip tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G -0.007 (0.009) T 0.008 (0.016) Rate of Return: G-0.007 (0.009) T-0.006 (0.017) Heidke skill: G-0.007 (0.044) T-0.008 (0.070) GROC: G 0.523 (0.540) T 0.541 (0.564) NDJ 2012-13 precip probab forecast from mid-Oct

  4. Verification of Most Recent Season Temperature Forecast NDJ 2012-13 temp tercile categ obs Verification: G: globe T: tropics this (mean forcst 1997→) rpss: G 0.129 (0.110) T 0.278 (0.162) Rate of Return: G 0.130 (0.107) T 0.299 (0.168) Heidke skill: G 0.298 (0.287) T 0.552 (0.376) GROC: G 0.601 (0.585) T 0.692 (0.638) NDJ 2012-13 temp probab forecast from mid-Oct

  5. Last week’s SST anomaly | | | | | | | | | | | -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

  6. Stronger El Niño El Nino La Nina StrongerLa Niña

  7. La Nina signature in atmosphere Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies 5N – 5S Climate Prediction Center NCEP weak El Nino signature in atmosphere La Nina-looking

  8. Stronger La Niña ***** ***** Stronger El Niño

  9. mid-Nov

  10. mid-Dec

  11. mid-Jan

  12. mid-Feb

  13. Feb 2011 Feb 2012 Feb 2013 Slightly enhanced trade winds Thermocline deep in mid-Pacific, shallow in east Oceanic ENSO state: neutral, leaning cold

  14. Recent phase and strength of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

  15. IMME SST forecasts: MAM and MJJ MAM MJJ

  16. February 2013 SST forecasts (plus and minus uncertainty scenarios at right) PLUS MEAN MINUS

  17. Six IRI focus areas: 12-year skill of IRI precipitation forecasts RPSS GROC RPSS GROC score R G R G R G R G R G R G

  18. This ppt file is available to anyone on the shared drive: ……./tonyb/fctbriefingmonyr or ……/tonyb/iri_html /fctbriefingmonyr

  19. Tropical Cyclone ForecastsJanuary 2013 NTC = Number of Tropical Cyclones ACE = Accumulated Cyclone Energy

  20. Old one (but Indonesia may not be in right position)

  21. New one

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