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CTB / CPC Interactions with the External Community

A Program to enhance interactions between CPC, the RISA’s and the ARC’s in order to identify and meet user needs for enhanced climate forecast products and applications: RISA CPC Liaison RISA Contact RISA Visitor to CPC

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CTB / CPC Interactions with the External Community

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  1. A Program to enhance interactions between CPC, the RISA’s and the ARC’s in order to identify and meet user needs for enhanced climate forecast products and applications: RISACPC LiaisonRISA ContactRISA Visitor to CPC SECC Muthuvel Chelliah James Jones Guillermo Baigorria / Shrikant Jagtap (Spring 07) PEAC/PaCIS Luke He Eileen Shea Alaska Jon Gottschalck James Partain CAP Kingtse Mo Dan Cayan CLIMAS Ed O’lenic Holly Hartmann WWA Michelle L’Heureux Andrea Ray Exchange visits:(i) CPC makes short visits to RISAs (or ARCs) to provide customized CPC overviews of our forecast, monitoring and assessment products. (ii) The RISAs (ARCs) send longer term visitors (up to several months) to CPC to develop customized products off of the CPC product suite. CTB / CPC Interactions with the External Community

  2. Progress on Science Activities:Climate Forecast Products Team Probabilistic forecasts of Extreme Events and Weather Hazards in the US (PI: Charles Jones (UCSB); NCEP Co-PI: Jon Gottschalck (CTB)) • Funding: April 07 • Activities:Develop sub-monthly to monthly probabilistic forecast models of extreme events (precipitation, temperature, and wind) trained and validated using CFS and GR-2 • Low-frequency modes (ENSO, MJO, AO) are to be incorporated in probabilistic forecast models System-wide Advancement of User-Centric Climate Forecast Products (PI: Holly Hartmann (UAZ); NCEP Co-PI: Ed O’Lenic (CPC)) • Funding: April 07 • Activities: Improve user understanding, access, utility of existing products; predict more variables (wind, humidity, heat index, wind chill, burn index, …); extreme events; new sector-oriented products, based on NWS Field and RISA input.

  3. Science Plans: Climate Forecast Products Team, cont’d • New Drought Monitoring Products (1) Real-time monitoring based on RCDAS (on-going, updated weekly) (2)Monitoring based on the NLDAS systems (NOAH, VIC, SAC, Mosaic): (a) Ensemble means are more stable and reliable; (b) Current: Utilize the 10-yr NLDAS ensemble (Noah, VIC, SAC and Mosaic) to form ensemble and set up prototype web page; (c) Future: Utilize a 27-year NLDAS ensemble; (d) Monitor week1 & week2 hydrological conditions.

  4. FY08 CTB Priority for NIDIS-Drought • New Drought Monitoring products: • Hydrologic conditions based on multi model ensemble NLDAS and regional reanalysis; • New Drought Forecast tools: • Objective drought forecasts based on CFS and statistical tools; • Improved seasonal forecasts based on improved land-atmosphere coupling; • Improved medium-range prediction based on uncoupled downscaling of NAEFs • Improvements to Operational Drought Monitor & Outlook; • Contributions to NIDIS Portal and NIDIS Pilots.

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