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…SUMMER FORECAST 2011…. LA NINA IS DEAD ...WILL SUPER WET COOL PATTERN CONTINUE?

…SUMMER FORECAST 2011…. LA NINA IS DEAD ...WILL SUPER WET COOL PATTERN CONTINUE? MAJOR DROUGHT FOR LOWER PLAINS and DEEP SOUTH GDD DAYS ISSUES?. RAINFALL LAST 60 DAYS.. and why the Mississippi Flooded. TEMPS LAST 60 DAYS. SEASONAL FORECASTS.

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…SUMMER FORECAST 2011…. LA NINA IS DEAD ...WILL SUPER WET COOL PATTERN CONTINUE?

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  1. …SUMMER FORECAST 2011…. LA NINA IS DEAD ...WILL SUPER WET COOL PATTERN CONTINUE? MAJOR DROUGHT FOR LOWER PLAINS and DEEP SOUTH GDD DAYS ISSUES?

  2. RAINFALL LAST 60 DAYS.. and why the Mississippi Flooded

  3. TEMPS LAST 60 DAYS..

  4. SEASONAL FORECASTS. It is NOT guess work • Trick is finding which large scale atmospheric factors are going to be important for the Season and which ones are NOT. IF you focus on the wrong factors... your forecast will likely be pretty bad (“BUST”).Be aware of the unexpected “ THE BLACK SWAN” event... where something changes in the middle of the season

  5. 2 recent examples • EL NINO 2006-07... everyone forecasted El Nino to last into the Spring of 2006. But Xmas week the warm water collapsed … and Jan 15 to March 15 2007 turned extremely cold La Nina Summer of 2010. Developed late Summer and Autumn = Summer featured No drought or even and moderate dry spells over Plains and Midwest... ideal for Beans and Corn

  6. SUMMER 2011 in CONUSMAIN FACTORS • La NINA is dead • -PDO... a lot colder than Normal sea surface temps from Alaska to Baja • Drought areas over Plains • Super wet areas over Tenn and Ohio Valley • Warmer than Normal Sea surface temps in Tropical Atlantic Ocean.

  7. LA NINA 2010 - 11 • Yes it is DEAD

  8. LA NINA DEC 2010

  9. FORECASTING LA NINA into the SPRING / SUMMER 2011 European model forecasts from the Key ENSO region 3.4. show NEUTRAL conditions through SUMMER 2011

  10. FORECASTING LA NINA into the SPRING / SUMMER 2011 CFS model forecasts from the Key ENSO region 3.4. show NEUTRAL conditions through SUMMER 2011

  11. PDO IS CLEARLY IN THE VERY COLD WATER PHASE or “NEGATIVE” -PDO means trough on West coast & RIDGE over SE states. For Upper Plains & Midwest this makes for very active storm track & weather pattern but for Lower Plains / Deep South the -PDO means more dryness

  12. SSTA's sea surface tempanomalies– DEC 19

  13. SSTA's (sea surface temp anomalies) for APRIL 10. Note the increasing area of cold water in the eastern pacific

  14. SSTA's sea surface tempanomalies– MAY 25 Cold water in eastern Pacific (the -PDO) is still Increasing.

  15. THIS SCHMATIC SHOW THE TYPICAL SPRING -PDO PATTERN

  16. SEE HOW THE PATTERN RESEMBLES LAST 60 DAYS!

  17. As we move into the Summer Month the Jet stream shifts North as it always does... it is essentially the same pattern... but it is getting displace North 12 JUNEJULY

  18. Lets look at SOIL MOISTURE... WHY? Soil moisture is the most overlooked aspect of seasonal forecasting... large areas of saturated and drought regions can and DO influence the pattern

  19. The 2/15/11 Drought map shows the largest & deepest drought for Mid FEB since 2000

  20. The LARGE areas of SUPER WET regions in close proximity of large areas of Super DRY DID lock in Mean storm track for most of the SPRING and enhance Velocities in both Polar and Subtropical jet stream .... enhancing severe wx threats for Midwest

  21. Note the changes from THIS map -April 9- to the next one MAY 21

  22. Note the changes from THIS map -April 9- to the next one MAY 21

  23. What does this MEAN? • SHORT TERM TREND shows Super Wet areas over Upper Miss Valley / WCB has turned DRIER. • Super wet areas are over the ECB and the NE. • Drought over Lower Plains is increasing • N Rockies and western/ High Upper Plains ahs started turning much Wetter

  24. CAS MODEL With such large areas of Drought and saturated/ super saturated areas in such close proximity to each other it is worth taking a look at the CAS ModelThe CAS Model uses actual soil moisture and recent rainfall trends to forecast next 4 months It is updated every 3 days ...so forecasters can see the trends over the course of few weeks

  25. CAS MODEL for JUNE APRIL 11........... MAY 11...........MAY 25.

  26. CAS MODEL for JULY APRIL 11........... MAY 11...........MAY 25.

  27. CAS MODEL for AUG MAY 11.......................MAY 25.

  28. SUMMARY • LA NINA is dead. Soil Moisture and COLD phase or -PDO will be in control this summer • WCB / Upper Plains drying out… ECB is not. DROUGHT over Lower Plains is getting worse • SUMMER of 2 extremes: ECB may have GDD problem.. WCB looks good BUT threat of HEAT from drought areas of Lower Plains coming will be main concern for the WCB • CANADA late start... again.

  29. OVERSEAS SUMMER 2011 DROUGHT WARNING FOR EUROPEsevere or Historic drought increasingly Likely DROUGHT WARNING FOR CHINAsignificant drought Likely

  30. SSTA 10 April

  31. SSTA's 25 MAY Compare APR 10 to MAY 25... note the DRMATIC warming in Ne Atlantic off the UK France and North Sea

  32. EUROPE FEB 1- APRIL 30 RAINFALL RELATIVE TO NORMAL

  33. APRIL rainfall relativeto Normal APRIL actual rainfall

  34. APRIL temps relative to Normal ...note how warmest temps are where conditions are driest

  35. May 15-21 rainfall Temps

  36. UKRAINE RAINFALL RELATIVE TO NORMAL

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