Adult Female Literacy as a Determinant of Wealth in Developing Countries

1. Adult Female Literacy as a Determinant of Wealth in Developing Countries From www.ikat.org Maj Jeremy QuatackerMarch 2009

2. Research Question Using literacy as a measure of education and per capita income purchasing power parity (PPP) as a measure of wealth, can we establish a strong cause-effect relationship between adult female education and economic prosperity in developing countries?

3. Overview • Why should we care? • The chicken or the egg question between wealth and education (literacy) • Why focus on women and why literacy? • The cultural effect on female education & literacy • The focus on India and African countries • What are the effects of war? • Methodology for quantitative analysis • Analysis of data • Kindergarten statistics • More advanced multivariable regression analysis • Summary

4. Why Should We Care? • CSIS Commission on Smart Power • Proper use of limited resources • UN Literacy Decade (2003-2012) • Literacy Initiative for Empowerment (LIFE) UNESCO’s Education for All goal of increasing literacy rates by 50% by 2015 provides the overall target for the Decade, and the Millenium Development Goals set the Decade in the context of poverty reduction.

5. UN Literacy Decade and LIFE 1. On a global scale, one in five adults cannot read nor write. 2. Literacy is a human right. 3. Literacy efforts up to now have proved inadequate at national and international levels. LIFE was created when it became apparent that existing literacy efforts would not be sufficient to achieve a 50 percent improvement in levels of adult literacy by 2015.

6. Millenium Development Goals (MDG) • Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger • Achieve universal primary education • Promote gender equality and empower women • Reduce child mortality • Improve maternal health • Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, etc. • Ensure environmental sustainability • Develop a global partnership for development

7. The Chicken or the Egg and the Positive Feedback Loop in Causation Loose bolt on wheel Vibration Loose bolt falls off Causal Mechanism More vibration Positive Feedback Loop Other bolts fall off Wheel falls off Crash

8. Why Focus on Adult Female Literacy? • Women are half the population. Large gender gaps in developing countries provide huge potential for social and economic growth (HCI). • Adults (over 15) constitute the work force & impact the economy (time lag). • Literacy is a good measure of education in developing countries and critical for better employment and productivity. • Higher literacy rates have significant second and third order effects that benefit society on multiple levels compared to men. Most researchers focus on human rights and health vs. economic effects

9. How Culture Affects Literacy • Cultural effects stifling women’s development are numerous • Religious fundamentalism (Christian, Hindu, Islamic, etc) • Women’s rights challenges and women’s suffrage • Discrimination in the workplace • Governmental policies • How can these effects be measured?

10. Why India and Africa? • India has more detailed literacy statistics over the past 30 years and had larger increases in literacy allowing for time-series analysis • African countries make up much of the developing world and vary greatly in both literacy rates and per capita income levels allowing for a cross-sectional analysis India and Africa have varied religions and cultures

11. Bombing Them Into the Stone Ages? • What are the effects of two wars and a decade of sanctions in Iraq? • UNAMI created in 2003 to study/fix the issue • Analyzed life expectancy at birth, adult literacy, and GDP per capita • Pre-1990s: Iraq one of the top nations in region • Post-OIF: 6 million Iraqis illiterate • Education System in shambles • 1 in 6 children without textbooks • Teachers unpaid • Looting of schools

12. Methodology for Quantitative Analysis • Coding of the independent variables: 1. Adult female literacy as defined by UNESCO 2. Literacy gap (% difference) between genders - Discrimination - Cultural Influences • Coding of the dependent variables: 1. GNI per capita income PPP (International $) from The World Bank 2. National GDP growth rates for time series analysis (if required) • Statistical methods could/should include: • Multi-variable Regression • Time-series and cross-sectional analysis • Time-lagged considerations for delayed effects of education on wealth Data were sparse or non-existent prior to 2000 making analysis difficult in 3rd World

13. Map of Africa for the Geographically Challenged

14. Map of Indian States for the Geographically Challenged

15. Kindergarten Statistics We care about

16. We care about

17. We care about

18. India’s High-Low Graph of Male-Female Literacy vs. GNI

19. Africa’s High-Low Graph of Male-Female Literacy vs. GNI

20. x x GNI Per Capita PPP GNI Per Capita PPP x x AFRICA Total Literacy Rate Male Literacy Rate x x GNI Per Capita PPP GNI Per Capita PPP x x Female Literacy Rate Male-Female Gender Gap %

21. x x GNI Per Capita PPP GNI Per Capita PPP x x INDIA Total Literacy Rate Male Literacy Rate x x GNI Per Capita PPP GNI Per Capita PPP x x Female Literacy Rate Male-Female Gender Gap %

22. Africa Regression Analysis Female Lit & M-F Literacy Gap as Independent Var

23. Africa Regression Analysis Female Lit Only as Independent Var

24. Africa Regression Analysis Male Lit Only as Independent Var

25. India Regression Analysis Female Lit & M-F Literacy Gap as Independent Var

26. India Regression Analysis Female Lit Only as Independent Var

27. India Regression Analysis Male Lit Only as Independent Var

28. Summary • A more comprehensive study is needed to evaluate the effectiveness of the increased focus on women’s literacy since the turn of the century that accounts for cultural factors and focuses on economic wealth, especially as more data become available • Analysis will provide a report card for the MDG accomplishment at the halfway point and provide a vector for future efforts • Results will prove or disprove the significance of literacy as a significant factor and predictor of economic wealth and prosperity in the future