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Forest simulation models in Norway: main developments and challenges Kjell Andreassen and Tron Eid

COST ACTION FP0603: Forest models for research and decision support in sustainable forest management. Forest simulation models in Norway: main developments and challenges Kjell Andreassen and Tron Eid.

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Forest simulation models in Norway: main developments and challenges Kjell Andreassen and Tron Eid

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  1. COST ACTION FP0603: Forest models for research and decision support in sustainable forest management Forest simulation models in Norway: main developments and challenges Kjell Andreassen and Tron Eid 1st Workshop and Management Committee Meeting.Institute of Silviculture, BOKU.8-9 of May 2008Vienna, Austria

  2. Main features of Norwegian forests • Forest cover (total/share): • 8 mil. ha / 28 % of land = productive forest • 2 mil. ha / 6 % = Non-productive forest • 13 mil. ha / 46 % = Higher altitude than coniferous forest boundary line • Growing stock, annual growth and cuts: • 680 mil. m3, 25 mil m3 y-1, ca 35% of the annual growth is cut • Main species: • Picae abies (46%), Pinus sylvestris (32%), Betule pendula/pubescens (14%), others (8%) • Main non-wood products and services: • Berries, hunting (35.ooo moose hunted/yr), • Climate restrictions/protection, biodiversity, • Recreation, cabins • Main risks: • Droughts • Windthrows • Fungi & insect attacks • Water floods • Effects of climate change • Few forest fires (0.004% of area/yr => 23500 yr rotation of fires) • Management and silvicultural characteristics: • Clear cutting most used for Norway spruce (10 000 ha/yr planted) • Seed tree method for Scotch pine • “Living forest” standards for sustainable forest management • Very little other/alternative forest management methods • High value of some non-timber products and services – cf. moose hunting and cabins

  3. Forest modelling approaches and trends Empirical models • Stand models (“mean tree method”) are widely used (i) • The trend has been towards individual tree-level (ii) • Models exist for the main coniferous trees, birch and “other broadleaves” • Diameter distribution models for the main species • Recent research has been concentrated to: • New growth models has been developed • Modelling regeneration • Modelling uneven-aged management • Modelling non-timber products and services

  4. Forest simulator

  5. Forest modeling approaches and trends in Norway

  6. Advantage of Individual-tree models vs Stand level based models • May describe forest dynamics according to: - selective cutting in un-even-aged forest - different thinning methods, seed trees and shelter wood in even- aged forest - traditional treatments in even-aged forest • Timber quality (tree size and wood properties) • Forest structure (within-stand diversity) • Multi-functional aspects (e.g. lichen, biomass/carbon) • Permanent country representative sample plots from NFI • Laser-scanning -> diameter distribution -> individual trees

  7. Sub-models used in the T-simulator

  8. Economical sub-models • Cost functions for harvesting/forwarding =f(dbh, volume ha-1, harvesting method) • Timber price =f (dbh, h)

  9. Modelling non-timber products and services • Moose hunting (meat and recreation) vs timber production. Important in Norway • Recreation in forest areas • Water yield, water quality, trade-offs of water and forest

  10. Models for predicting risk of hazards • Windthrows (some simple models is developed) • Fire ecolocical effects • Fire probability and damage : Ecological important for many species. Effects on vegetation, mosses

  11. Simulators and information systems • Inventory • NFI • Forest owners assosiation • Stand level simulators • Bestprog • Gaya/Sgis • Avvirk 2000 • T - simulator • Forest level decision support systems • Avvirk 2000 • Gaya • Process based simulators • No process based simulators are still developed in Norway

  12. Future challenges • How to simulate mixed forests and mixed treatment • Process based models - conversion from international models • Non-timber products and services • Model risk and succession (after hazards) • Distance dependent individual tree growth models • A more flexible stumpage value calculation system • Models describing wood properties • Multiple use and environmental aspects • Other production functions (berries, forest structure) • 3-D GIS interface • Carbon budget • Integrate and demonstrate the potential of models and simulators for both scientists and other users. Further development/calibration of basic biological models.

  13. Some references • Eid, T. & Hobbelstad, K. 2000. AVVIRK-2000 - a large scale forestry scenario model for long-term investment, income and harvest analyses. Scand. J. For. Res. 15: 472-482. • Eid, T. 2004. Testing a large-scale forestry scenario model by means of successive inventories on a forest property. Silva Fenn. 3: 305-317. • Lexerød, N. & Eid, T. 2006. Assessing suitability for selective cutting using a stand level index. Forest Ecology and Management 237:503-512. • Gobakken, T., Lexerød, N. & Eid, T. 2008. T – a forest simulator for bio-economic analyses based on models for individual trees. In press. Scandinavian J. of Forest Research. • Andreassen, K. & Tomter, S. 2003. Basal area growth models for individual trees of Norway spruce, Scots pine, birch and other broadleaves in Norway. Forest Ecology and Management 180:11-24.

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