Forest simulation models in Portugal: main developments and challenges WG1

1. COST ACTION FP0603: Forest models for research and decision support in sustainable forest management Forest simulation models in Portugal: main developments and challenges WG1 Luis Fontes and Margarida Tomé 1st Workshop and Management Committee Meeting.Institute of Silviculture, BOKU.8-9 of May 2008Vienna, Austria

2. Main features of Portuguese forests (1/2) • Forest cover (total/share): • 3.4 milllions ha/ 37 % of land • Growing stock: • 67.1 millions m3P. pinaster, 41.3 millions m3E. globulus • Main species: • P. pinaster, E. globulus, Q. suber, Q. ilex, P. pinea. • Main non-wood products and services: • cork, pine kernels • soil protection, hunting, biodiversity, recreation

3. Main features of Portuguese forests (2/2) Main risks: Forest fires and sanitary problems Effects of climate change (droughts, etc) Management and silvicultural characteristics: Plenty of unmanaged forests - low profitability of timber & small size of estates High value of some non-timber products and services Complex forests: mixed and irregular Specialised areas eucalyptus plantations

4. Forest modelling approaches and trends Empirical models • Although tree-level modelling exists most of Portuguese forest models are stand level. • Most of forest modelling efforts have been concentrated on Pinus pinaster, Eucalyptus globulus and Quercus suber. • Tree models exist for Pinus pinaster, Eucalyptus globulus and Quercus suber • Diameter distribution models for Pinus pinaster and Eucalyptus globulus

5. Forest modelling approaches and trends Mechanistic models • 3-PG (Physiological Principles in Predicting Growth, Landsberg and Waring 1997) process-based model has been parameterized and validated for Eucalyptus globulus in Portugal • GLOB-3-PG hybrid model: a stand level process based model (3-PG) was complemented with existing individual tree and stand growth and yield models • Recent research is being carried out parameterizing and validating 3-PG for Pinus pinaster

6. Modelling non-timber products and services (1/2) • Suber model for cork prediction • Parameterization and calibration specifications • Geographical region: Portugal • Site specifications: sites appropriate for cork oak • Species: Quercus suber • Forest composition: Monospecific • Stand structure: Even and uneven aged stands • Model Classification • Model type: Empirical growth and yield model • Model sub-type: Distance-independent tree model • Primary unit of simulation: Tree • Time step: Year

7. Modelling non-timber products and services (2/2) • CORKFITS 2.2 • Parameterization and calibration specifications • Geographical region: Portugal • Site specifications: sites appropriate for cork oak • Species: Quercus suber • Model Classification • Model type: Empirical growth and yield model • Model sub-type: Distance-dependent tree model • Based on potential modifier approach • Estimates: Cork growth, stem growth, height growth, etc. • Site quality based on soil limitation for cork oak

8. Modelling for predicting risk of hazards • Modelling forest pests • Modelling probability of attack of Eucalyptus globulus plantations by Gunipterus sculeatus and Phoracanta semipuntacta • Modelling growth loss in Eucalyptus globulus plantations due to Gonipterus sculeatus attack (with 3-PG)

9. Simulators and information systems • Stand level and regional simulators sIMfLOR is a regional simulator (for eucalyptus, maritime pine and cork oak) that includes stand level simulators as one of the modules. The output is a set of sustainability indicators (annual values) • Forest level decision support systems sAGfLOR is a decision support system (landscape level) that allows for adjacency restrictions (such as minimum and/or maximum area of harvest, maximization of edges, etc) • Process based simulators GLOBLAND – it is a landscape simulator/decision support system based on the GLOB-3PG model

10. Research highlights • Cork oak models The SUBER and the CORKFITS models are the unique models for the cork oak system in Portugal (in Spain there is another model – ALCORNOQUE) • Operational use of process based models The operational use of “simple” process based models and its complementation with components from existing empirical models (GLOB-3PG, for instance) is one of the most challenging research topics at the moment

11. Future challenges • Forest models must evolve with the evolution of forest management objectives (multifunctional forestry) • Modelling growth and yield taking into account effects of climate change (droughts, etc) • Providingsupport for SFM (biodiversity indicators, etc) • Modelling forest resources for liquid fuels

12. Innovative references • Not really innovative… António, N., Tomé, M., Tomé, J., Soares, P. & Fontes, L. 2007. Effect of tree, stand and site variables on the allometry of Eucalyptus globulus tree biomass. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 37: 895-906. Fontes, L., Landsberg, J., Tomé, J., Tomé, M., Pacheco, C., Soares, P. and Araujo, C. 2006. Calibration and testing of a generalized process-based model for use in Portuguese eucalyptus plantations” Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36 12:3209-3221 Tomé, J., Tomé, M., Barreiro, S. & Paulo, J. A., 2006. Age-independent difference equations for modelling tree and stand growth. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 36: 1621-1630. Paulo, M. J., Tomé, M., Otten, A. & Stein, A., 2005. Comparison of three sampling methods in the characterization of cork oak stands for management purposes. Canadian Journal of Forest Research, 35:2295-2303. Tomé, M., Paulo, J.A., Almeida, A., Bugalho, M. 2005. The new version of the SUBER model - predicting multi products from the cork oak ecosystem. Suberwood2005 - New challenges for the integration of cork oak forests and products. Abstracts of Conference Presentations and Posters. Universidad de Huelva, 20-22 October.