Solar Activities and Halloween Storms

1. Solar Activities and Halloween Storms Ahmed Hady Astronomy Department Cairo University, Egypt

2. Objectives 1-Historical study of the last twelve solar cycles and its effects on Earth’s climate 2- Descriptive studies of the high energetic storms during the last three solar cycles & its effects on earth’s atmosphere, and October 2009, Halloween Storms. 3- Analytical studies Geomagnetic storms of the earth’s atmosphere 4 -The global Earth’s temperature variation during the last two thousand years

3. History Importance of the Sun for life on Earth has long been recognized From the beginning of the life

4. In the ancient Egyptian civilization, the solar disk has been proposed like divinity.

5. Observation of the solar sunpots since more than 4 century Galileo , Spring 1611 1673

6. solar magnetic component - sunspot Solar cycle ~11 years Migration of the spots from midlatitudes to the equator during the sunspot cycle Butterfly diagram

10. Annual number of geomagnetic disturbance days with Ap (black area) vs. annual sunspot numbers (Black area). Courtesy NOAA national Geophysical data center, BoulderCO

13. Relation betweenCME’sreleased during solar cycle 22, 23 & and the number of prominences during the same time

14. Solar Cycle 24 Prediction • Update released May 8, 2009

15. Magnetic flux during the most disturbed days in the Peak and decline phases of cycle 23. The solar source region have strong magnetic field intensity and high speed to compress the earth’s magnetosphere .

16. The great solar proton events during the solar cycle 23

17. Halloween solar Storms SoHo EIT X-Ray Flare (X 17.2/4B ) 28 October 2003

18. Movies of regions 10486 SoHo EIT X-Ray Flare (X28/3B) Nov 4, 2003

19. 8 - Active Regions during Halloween storms

20. Solar disk before the region 10486 rotate behind the western Limb UT 19:29  on November 4, 2003, and X-28 flare during that time. AR486 Before rotation

21. Active Regions during Halloween storms by SoH0 EIT Oct. 22, 2003 By EIT-171 A

22. Movies of regions No 10486 CME in C2 During Oct. 28 2003

23. The daily cumulative summation curve of 6-solar indices has been studied in order to investigate the possibilities to forecast the occurrence of such giant sudden storms. The used solar Indices are: Sunspot Numbers Sunspot area Optical Flares X-ray flares x-ray intensities x-ray Background flux

24. Daily cumulate Summation curve of x-ray intensities during 17 days, starting 25 Oct. 2003 Daily cumulative Summation curves of x-ray intensities during 25 Oct. to 10 Nov , 2003 show a sudden increase on 26 October, allowing a possible prediction 2 - 3 days before the occurrence of the major eruptive flare/CME, which was released during Halloween storms

25. Intensity-time profile of Optical Flares (Fig5b) and GOES 12 x-ray Background flux (Fig4b) during the time period October 25, 2003 to November 19, 2003

26. Daily cumulative Summation curve of SESC Sunspot number and Sunspot area during the period 25 Oct. to 10 Nov. 2003

27. a)Sunspot NO. b)Sunspot area c)Optical Flares d) X-ray flares e)x-ray Int. f)x-ray Bg flux The temporal behavior of the six solar indices during the great solar proton events during the solar cycle 23

28. (b) (f) (a) (c) (d) (e) (Continued)

29. (b) (a) (c) (d) (e) (f) (Continued)

30. From the data analysis -During the decline phase of the last two solar cycles ( 22, and 23) high energetic eruptive flares were recorded. Some of them, are more than that occurred during the peaks of the cycles -High Energetic proton flare, during the decline phase of the present cycle 23 ,during the Halloween storms of 2003 were occurred. From cumulative cure analysis we can conclude that the release of the Eruptive flares at Halloween storms, 2003 are due to: I -Large active region area (AR 10468), II - Very Strong solar Magnetic field was appeared during that time. III - High peak in geomagnetic disturbances

31. Therefore : -Solar particle events (SPEs) with very high fluxes of solar protons have correlation with geomagnetic storms. -Geomagnetic Indices ( A and K indices ) increased with Increasing Solar Activities with time delay of 1-2 days.

32. Climate changes and Solar Activity in History

33. The C14 Measurement during the last 1000 years

34. Cosmic Ray changes and its comparison with solar cycles

35. Temperate changes over history

36. Global observations since the late 1950s show that the troposphere (up to about 10 km) has warmed at a slightly greater rate than the surface, while the stratosphere (about 10–30 km) has cooled markedly since 1979.

37. Conclusion - A correlation between Geomagnetic Storms, solar Activity variabilities and Climate Change , DETECTED - The Geomagnetic Indices have increased after the high Energetic Particles released, after 1-2 days from the start of the Solar event.

38. International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) IAGA Symposium 2 Solar Wind-Space environment Interaction (IAGA2-2009) December 4-8, 2009, Cairo, Egypt http://iaga.cu.edu.eg Convener: Ahmed Hady, aahady@yahoo.com, aahady@cu.edu.eg

39. Sessions of IAGA Symposium 2: Session 1: Slow Wind Streams, CMEs & 3D Structures of the Corona and Heliosphere. Session 2: Fast Solar Wind & Plumes Session 3: The influence of solar wind turbulence on geomagnetic activity and Earth’s Atmosphere Session 4: The role of solar wind heavy ions in the space environment, Meteors and Meteoroids Session 5: Modeling of the Solar Wind and Space Weather. Session 6: Helosheric plasma and Magnetic reconnections. Session 7: Space Science Researches & Education and Public Outreach, The International Year of Astronomy (IYA2009). http://iaga.cu.edu.eg

41. Thank you