Socio-economic conditions and child rights in Africa

1. Socio-economic conditions and child rights in Africa ERF-UNICEF WorkshopRoyal Orchid Sheraton Hotel, Bangkok Charles Abugre, 03/07/13

2. Absolute Poverty remains the overwhelming problem • In spite of the MDGs (or perhaps because of them), % living in poverty reduced marginally but absolute numbers increased. Compared to 1990. • The proportion of people living in absolute poverty is more than double the developing country average. • Developing countries reduced absolute poverty by about 700million people. This was largely outside of Africa • There is contestation however regarding the extent of poverty reduction in Africa, and why • The countries that have made the most progress in poverty reduction are not necessarily the fastest growing ones.

3. $1.25 Poverty line (1981-2008, WB). SSA and developing countries

4. Country performance by rate of poverty reduction, and GDP per capita (WDI)

5. Rate of poverty reduction compared to HDI and others • The countries making the fastest progress in reducing poverty are largely low HDI ranked. South Africa is the exception in terms of relative poverty reduction performance. • But HDI countries also tend to rank high in the Mo Ibrahim index of African Governance. Similarly, low HDI countries also rank lowly in the Mo index. • Libya is an exception which is a relatively high HDI country but ranks extremely low in the Mo Index. • Also high HDI countries have made the greatest reduction maternal mortality rates. This is however not true with child mortality reduction. The best performers are middle to low HDI/Mo Index countries. • But even the best performers still fall far worse than the levels of child mortality in the 1960w and 80s

6. Country performance by HDI and Mo Ibrahim Index

7. Performance by MMR, 1000 live births

8. Under 5 Mortality rates, 1000 live births

9. What accounts for this perfomance? • Historically low levels of per-capita income growth made worst in the 1990s. • An economy rooted in primary commodity dependency and low/de-industrialisation. Where growth happens it is unstable and not jobs creating. • Low productivity in agriculture • Historical Income and economic inequalities • Political instabilities dating back to the cold-war period and gender inequalities • Aid-dependency

10. GDP per capita by region, 1960-2010

11. African Countries top the list of fastest growing economies in the world

12. Inequalities- Historical

13. The Palma (2010)

14. Palma and changes since 1990

15. How much more progress if Palma falling?

16. Cost of multiple inequalities • Asset inequalities (including by gender); Spatial inequalities in terms of income and access to services, often exacerbated by revenue allocation/expenditure inequalities; other horizontal inequalities and the general effect is overall society inequalities and inefficient impact of economic development on social well-being. • Cobham and Sumner found that countries which reduced their Palma exhibit mean rates of progress which, compared to countries with rising Palmas, are • three times higher in reducing dollar a day poverty and hunger, • twice as high in reducing the proportion of people lacking access to improved water sources, and • a third higher in reducing under-five mortality.

17. Going Forward: the Structural transformation needed to address the economy as the backbone of social development • Africa’s share of world manufacturing exports declined from 1.5% (1970-1980), to 0.83% (1995-2000) to 0.79% (2001-20100 – UNCTAD). • Agricultural productivity stagnant or declining for 3 decades, largest source of jobs (185mn in 2010) but 90% of it vulnerable. • Primary commodity dependence deepening – they do not create jobs. • Domestic savings and investment stagnant around 12% of GDP for 2 decades • Tax/revenue below 17% compared to 40% (OECD) • Illicit Capital flight accelerating • Energy consumption and access exceeding low • Address significant demographic change. In 2040 Africa’s labour force will be larger than both China and India’s.

18. Key issues for child welfare • Getting growth right – for employment and revenues to expand and sustain social expenditures and child rights– addressing underdevelopment • Addressing multiple inequalities, including their impact on children. • Women’s rights and gender equality – the child’s opportunities and wellbeing tied to the social conditions of their mother and other social determinants. • Effective and equitable tax systems • Zero extreme poverty agenda • Universal access to education, water and healthcare • A human rights based approach to managing budgets – sensitive to human freedoms and accountability

19. A long list of complimentary international agenda related to: • Policy space • Fair international rules • Functioning international regulatory systems • Foreign interventions • Global governance • South-south relations

20. Asante saana