Inside the State RSK: Chapters 6 & 7 Atlas: Maps 50 & 53

1. Inside the StateRSK: Chapters 6 & 7Atlas: Maps 50 & 53

2. Motivating Examples • “What this country needs is a short victorious war to stem the tide of revolution.” (White 1964) • “A far reaching consensus now agrees that German foreign policy after 1897 must be understood as a response to the internal threat of socialism and democracy.” (Kaiser 1983) • Louis Napoleon “has no alternative left but revolution at home or war abroad”. (Mayer 1977)

3. Diversionary Theory What factors explain when leaders use force for political purposes? • Leaders’ have a desire to stay in office • When faced with an external threat, groups become more cohesive • A leader’s approval increases following a use of military force—rally around the flag effect

6. Rally Around the Flag • Academic evidence is mixed • Some studies find rallies (e.g. Iranian hostage crisis, Gulf War, Falklands (Lai & Reiter)) • Others find that rally effects in the US vary and are typically short-lived and small (Lian & Oneal). • Leaders do not have longer terms in office after uses of force (Chiozza & Goemans) & may even lose office when cooperating with their rivals (Colaresi).

7. Diversionary Behavior • Leaders use force to divert attention away from domestic turmoil • Aspects of domestic turmoil include internal conflict (protests, riots, etc.) and economic woes (high inflation, etc.) • Political incentives: approval, elections

8. Ostrom and Job’s (1986) Study Cybernetic Decision-making Model • Leaders consider a limited set of critical factors • U.S. Presidents share three goals (1948-1976) • A preference for action • Anti-communism • Containment of the USSR

9. Environments the President monitors • International: level of international tension, strategic balance, war involvement • Domestic: public attitude toward international tension and strategic balance, public aversion to war, economic misery • Political: Public approval, lack of political success, elections

10. Findings • All three environments matter, but the political environment has the greatest impact on the decision to use force. • U.S. Presidents are more likely to use force when their overall approval is high. • U.S. Presidents are more likely to use force in bad economic times. • Kennedy was the most likely to use force, and Truman the least likely

13. Research Design Problems • Uses of force are related over time • International factors have stronger effects when you control for temporal dynamics (Mitchell and Moore, 2002) • Major uses of force are driven by different factors than minor uses • Domestic factors (e.g. approval, economy) have strongest effects on major uses of force (Mitchell and Moore, 2002)

14. Opportunities to Use Force? • No consideration of opportunity to use force • Leaders do not typically manufacture crises • So where do opportunities come from? • International events (Meernik) • Major powers have lots of opportunities • States involved in interstate rivalries have lots of opportunities (e.g. India & Pakistan)

15. Opportunities for Force Uses of Force

16. It is easiest to target a rival state (Mitchell and Prins, 2004).

17. Does Diversion Challenge the DP? • Are leaders in democracies immoral if they use force for political gain? • Strategic diversion • Democratic leaders have more incentives to rally the public • But their enemies know this, and so avoid providing them with opportunities