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National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System NPOESS Climate Impacts Possible Mitigations with

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National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System NPOESS Climate Impacts Possible Mitigations with

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    4. 4 Outline Background De-manifested Sensors Reduced Capability Sensors Reduced Coverage Sensors Preferred Approaches

    5. 5 Overview of Nunn-McCurdy Certification Climate Goal Impacts Nunn-McCurdy certified NPOESS Priority placed on continuity of operational weather measurements Pre Nunn-McCurdy: 3 orbits and 6 spacecraft Post Nunn-McCurdy: 2 orbits and 4 spacecraft Impacts to Climate Sensors Five climate oriented sensors de-manifested APS, TSIS, OMPS-Limb, ERBS, ALT Instruments flown only if developed outside of NPOESS program Three climate oriented sensors have reduced coverage VIIRS, CrIS: One less flight per day One climate oriented sensor will have reduced capability CMIS: Build a less expensive, less capable instrument of the same type NPOESS program will plan and fund for the integration of demanifested sensors onto the satellite buses if provided from outside NPOESS

    6. 6 Climate Goals & NPOESS Phase 1: Climate priorities only the wider mandates beyond climate not considered Cost estimates not addressed Phase 2: Strategy must be integrated into a Mission Roadmap responsive to Decadal Survey (NRC) and potential international partners Phase 3: Cost estimates

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    9. 9 National and International Climate Priorities Impacted by Nunn-McCurdy Certification of NPOESS Will the loss of climate-science sensors have a significant impact on the goals of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program? First order, yes --- Essential Climate Variables Will the loss of climate-science sensors have a significant impact on the goals of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)? First order, yes

    11. 11 Framework for Assessing Impacts on Climate Goals Science Critical work on climate change detection, understanding, prediction, and attribution will be curtailed or not possible (e.g., ALT is needed to monitor global sea level rise) Data Continuity Critical Climate Data Records will cease (e.g., solar irradiance monitoring started in 1979; now slated to end in ~2013) Climate Data Records Increased costs and more uncertain to develop Measurement Overlap Multiple sensors will not be able to achieve the required accuracy since they require on-orbit co-calibration with predecessor (e.g., CERES-to-ERBS-like-sensor transition)

    12. 12 Framework for Assessing Impacts on Climate Goals (continued) Importance of the Essential Climate Variable (ECV) as defined by the Global Climate Observing System to understanding causes of climate change or the sensitivity of the climate system to various forcings Importance of sensor to measuring an ECV (not adequately measured by other systems) Heritage of the sensors and derived Climate Data Records Likelihood and impact of a gap in measurement Maturity of the science and technology of the measurement Societal relevance and operational impact of the sensor loss or degradation International collaborations and other sources of climate data

    13. 13 Impacts of Nunn-McCurdy By Sensor Demanifested Sensors in Priority 1. Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) TSIS measures solar energy incident on Earth Without TSIS, discrimination and quantification of natural vs. anthropogenic forcings uncertain; solar spectral variability affects Earth system uncertain Earth Radiation Budget Sensor (ERBS) ERBS measures net shortwave and longwave radiation Without ERBS, causes of climate change and internal feedbacks uncertain (e.g., role of clouds) RADAR Altimeter (ALT) ALT monitors changes in sea level and regional circulations Without ALT, assessment and prediction of ocean expansion and coastal inundation at risk; ocean storm intensification uncertain Ozone Mapping & Profiler Suite (OMPS) Limb Subsystem OMPS-Limb measures Global ozone at high vertical resolution Without OMPS-Limb, tracking global ozone recovery and atmospheric structure at risk 6. Aerosol Polarimeter Sensor (APS) APS measures global aerosol types and characteristics Without APS, most effective strategy to mitigate the human contribution to climate change uncertain

    14. 14 TSIS: Background TSI has been measured continuously for the last 28 years TSI varies about 0.1% over the 11-year solar cycle Short-term variability is typically 0.2%

    15. 15 TSIS: NPOESS Mitigation TSI is presently provided by the NASA SORCE Mission that should last through 2009 The NASA Glory Mission will be launched at the end of 2008 and continue the TSI measurement through 2013 TSIS was planned to fly on the original NPOESS early AM Missions C2 (2011*) and C4 (2014*) If developed outside of NPOESS, TSIS could fly on the new C2 (2016*) and C4 (2020*) A third TSIS is necessary to bridge the gap between the end of Glory and the launch of C2 * Launch Readiness Date

    16. 16 ERBS: Background ERBS continuously monitors the radiation budget to identify subtle long-term shifts related to climate change Persistent small climate changes are difficult to detect within the diurnal, regional, and seasonal variance of the Earth’s reflected (shortwave) and emitted (long wave) energy – hence a long-term record is required (decades) Radiation budget measurements date back to 1984 and are currently provided by the CERES instruments on the TRMM (1997), Terra (1999), and Aqua (2002) Missions ERBS lacks the necessary absolute accuracy to tolerate data gaps A six-month overlap between instruments is required and a twelve-month overlap is preferred

    17. 17 ERBS: NPOESS Mitigation NASA volunteered a CERES flight spare for the original C1 Mission Presently, ERBS has been de-manifested but the CERES flight spare is still available To achieve the critical 6-12 months of overlap, the CERES flight spare should fly on NPP (2010) rather than the new C1 (2013) If developed outside of NPOESS, ERBS could fly on the new C1 (2013) and C3 (2018) Missions

    18. 18 3. Ocean Altimeter (ALT) The Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM) or “Jason 2” will launch in 2008 and provide altimetric data through 2011 and possibly through 2013 No planned precision altimetric data after OSTM The ALT instrument was to fly on the original NPOESS C2 (2011) and C5 (2015) Missions NPOESS sun-synchronous orbits are not ideal for precision altimetry since they are confounded by tidal activity

    19. 19 ALT: NPOESS Mitigation In the longer-term, continuity in measurements throughout the NPOESS era will require successive flights of missions of comparable characteristics at an interval to provide the required overlap Two alternatives have been considered outside of NPOESS: NOAA/EUMETSAT follow-on OSTM with the same capability as “Jason-3” NASA/Navy Advanced Altimetry Mission that provides a wide swath capability with greater spatial resolution to explore the energy flux through mesoscale eddies and in costal processes

    20. 20 OMPS-Limb: Background

    21. 21 OMPS-Limb: NPOESS Mitigation OMPS-Limb instrument was to be combined with the OMPS-Nadir instrument and fly on the NPP mission as well as on the original NPOESS C2 (2016*) and C4 (2020*) Missions Presently the OMPS-Limb is de-manifested and the OMPS-Nadir instrument will fly on the NPP Mission (2010) and the new PM Missions, C1 (2013) and C3 (2018) Restore the OMPS-Limb subsystem within the OMPS-Nadir sensor as originally planned

    22. 22 APS: Background APS instrument addresses three objectives: Characterize the global distribution of aerosol properties Determine the effects of aerosols on the radiation budget Determine the effects of aerosols on clouds and precipitation APS is based on an earlier aircraft instrument, the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) Flying APS on the Glory Mission was intended to be risk reduction for subsequent NPOESS Missions

    23. 23 APS: NPOESS Mitigation Intended for the original NPOESS C1 (2009) and C4 (2014) flights Glory Mission will launch late in 2008 with a three-year life and a five-year goal Provides APS measurements through ~2013 Two additional APS Sensors developed outside of the NPOESS Program could fly on the new C1 (2013) and C3 (2018) NPOESS Missions

    24. 24 Impacts of Nunn-McCurdy By Sensor Capability and Coverage Reductions in Priority 5. Conical Scanning Microwave Imager (CMIS) – Reduced Scope CMIS measures integrated atmospheric properties, surfaces under clouds, ocean surface winds Pending new sensor design, adequate sea surface temperature, polar ice melting, soil moisture and ocean wind records at risk 7. Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) – Reduced Coverage VIIRS maps small features (<1 km) on land, ocean, atmosphere Without VIIRS in the mid-morning orbit, adequate global imagery of critical variables for some climate applications at risk 8. Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS) / Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) – Reduced Coverage CrIS/ATMS measures atmospheric property profiles, greenhouse gases, clouds and precipitation Without CrIS/ATMS in the early-morning orbit, diurnal atmospheric temperature and hydrological cycles uncertain; some climate change hypotheses not validated Advanced Data Collection System (ADCS) – No Impacts ADCS re-transmits in-situ observations from remote areas No changes

    25. 25 CMIS: Background CMIS-like data are currently provided by the Aqua AMSR-E instrument, the SeaWinds scatterometer on the QuikSCAT Mission, and the experimental surface vector wind sensor from the Navy’s Windsat/Coriolis Mission Some of these data are also provided by the SSMIS on the DMSP Missions Continuous records date back to 1987 CMIS was originally a six-band system with vertical and horizontal polarization in each band The NPOESS intention is to build a less expensive, less capable system known as the Microwave Imager/Sounder (MIS)

    26. 26 CMIS: NPOESS Mitigation CMIS was planned to fly on all of the original six NPOESS Missions Due to the cancellation of CMIS the new MIS will not be available for the C1 (2013) Mission NPOESS plans that C2 (2016), C3 (2018) and C4 (2020) will include the new MIS sensor The absence of a microwave radiometer/imager on C1 represents a loss of continuity of data products from AMSR-E (e.g., SSTs will be degraded 2010 – 2016)

    27. 27 VIIRS: Background & Mitigation VIIRS is intended to succeed the MODIS instruments on Aqua and Terra VIIRS was planned to fly on all six of the original NPOESS missions The Certified NPOESS uses an AVHRR on the European MetOp Mission in the mid-AM orbit. The AVHRR instrument is far less capable than MODIS or VIIRS Ocean color cannot be adequately determined with AVHRR Comparisons of Terra and Aqua data indicate that diurnal variation of clouds require multiple equatorial crossing to mitigate cloud clutter A VIIRS in the mid-AM orbit would continue the climate data products presently produced by MODIS on Terra

    28. 28 Summary of Recommendations Priority Order Ranking Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) De-manifested Sensor Mitigation: Build three additional TSIS sensors, flying first on a platform of opportunity to overlap with Glory. Subsequent sensors fly on platforms of opportunity at times intended to provide continuity in the measurements. Earth Radiation Budget Sensor (ERBS) De-manifested Sensor Mitigation: Consider flying final CERES instrument on NPP instead of C1 to ensure continuity of AQUA CERES. Develop ERBS for C1 & C3 flights; NPOESS to support integration of ERBS onto C1 & C3. RADAR Altimeter (ALT) De-manifested Sensor Near-term Mitigation: OSTM JASON-2 to fly 2008-11; Support planning of either an operational OSTM follow-on mission (i.e., JASON-3) as a NOAA-Eumetsat effort, or the development of a next generation altimeter (i.e., wide swath, higher resolution) as a research and development mission between NASA and the Navy. Longer-term Mitigation: After the planning period, select the best option in a time frame that allows the required overlap with OSTM. Implement successive flights of missions of comparable characteristics at an interval to provide the required overlap.

    29. 29 Summary of Recommendations Priority Order Ranking (continued) Ozone Mapping & Profiler Suite (OMPS) Limb Subsystem: De-manifested Sensor Mitigation: OMPS Limb for NPP is already built; Fund calibration, testing, & integration of OMPS Limb on NPP; Build and fly additional OMPS Limb for all NPOESS flying OMPS nadir Conical Scanning Microwave Imager (CMIS): Reduced Sensor Capability: Mitigation: Monitor rescoped CMIS (MIS) requirements development. If MIS is not adequate for climate-quality precipitation, soil moisture, and sea surface temperature, identify and fund alternative instruments. Ensure imager/sounder stays on C2 as planned. Provide capability to continue 8-year Quickscat ocean vector wind measurements as soon as possible. Aerosol Polarimeter Sensor (APS): De-manifested Sensor Mitigation: Fly APS instrument on the NASA Glory Mission. Support future aerosol research as dictated by the Glory results. Provide an additional APS on a future research mission prior to the NPOESS C3 Mission

    30. 30 Summary of Recommendations Priority Order Ranking (continued) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS): Reduced Coverage Sensor Mitigation: Throughout the initial METOP (A, B, C) era, fly a VIIRS-like instrument on one or more platforms in the mid-AM orbit to provide a continuous data record. For continuity beyond METOP-C, work with Eumetsat to define requirements for a VIIRS-like imager to fly on the METOP follow-on series. Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS): (Reduced Coverage Sensor) No additional mitigation proposed. Advanced Data Collection System (ADCS): (No Change) No action proposed.

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