Learning Continuity and Pandemic Flu Management

1. Learning Continuity and Pandemic Flu Management Daniel Tan & Alan Soong Centre for Educational Development http://www.ced.ntu.edu.sg e: ethtan@ntu.edu.sg

2. Outline • Singapore and NTU context • SARS • NTU campus community profile • Learning Continuity Model • eLearning Week: requirements and process model • Operational considerations • Outcomes • Implications

3. 2003: SARS in Singapore Push Factor #1 Number of cases: 238 Number of deaths: 33 Fatality rate: 14%

6. - 5.4% drop

8. Push Factor #2 Singapore:Eye of the Epicentre of current avian flu outbreak

9. Epicenter

10. http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/csr/data/data_Graphs.htm Source: http://www.wpro.who.int/sites/csr/data/data_Graphs.htm Case Fatality Rate 2003

11. cytokine storm – uncontrolled immune response Normal Flu Distribution

12. Case Fatality Rate

13. Campus Age Distribution: • 20,000 undergraduates • 7,000 post-graduates • 2,000 staff • 100 children at nursery • Not to scale 30:70 60:40 38:62

14. eLearning Week: Requirements and Process Model as a Tool Of Learning Continuityfor Pandemic Flu Management • non-alarmist • good push to promote eLearning processes and practices

16. http://edveNTUre.sg

17. Disease Outbreak Response System Condition (DORSCON)

18. NTU’s Business Continuity Plan - Learning and Research LOA: Leave of Absence HQO: Home Quarantine Order Campus closure

19. eLearning Week I Schedule School-based: to focus on learning continuity process vs system load issues

20. eLearning Week II Schedule Scale up to College level: To include the Colleges in the preparation process

21. Awareness- posters- announcements- e-announcements

22. Learning Continuity Model:Selected Core Learning Tools Lab-based sessions exempted

23. eLW Learning Activities Guide Communication: Staff must know what to do; Students must know what is expected of them

24. PreseNTUr for Self-paced Learning

25. acuConference Virtual Classwith dual cameras

26. Online Discussion Groups

27. eAssessment Post-lecture self tests Timely self-feedback opportunity for students Open online forum item for student peers and/or teachers Teaching discussion point and lecture review Monitoring of student performance with remedial and preventive response Provides a level of Quality Assurance of the eLW processes

28. eUrekaOnline Project Work Management System

29. ClosingtheLoop

30. OPTUS: Online Progress Tracking Usage System • Track activities and commitment to planned activities • Recorded lectures • Online Discussion Forum & Virtual classes • Self-test • eUreka Project work System • For management to be duly informed of the eLW learning continuity situation

33. Lecture Recording Review StatisticsTotal Usage

34. PreseNTUr system configuration • 1 x AcuManager • 12 x AcuStream Video Servers • 8 existing servers • 4 new servers setup in preparation of eLW • Can support up to 2,400 users via video streaming

35. Content Delivery NetworkContent Access Process –> optimum performance redirection and very high scalability 2 1 4 AcuStream AcuStream AcuStream AcuStream student clicks on hyperlink edveNTUre.sg AcuManager IDM 2000 3

36. Provides a quantitative understanding of the system back-end operations Graphical data of CPU, network and database services Provide understanding of load impact due to online access to learning continuity Visualization of System Utilization

37. Implications

38. University can – with confidence - press the button earlier

39. Assoc Prof Daniel Tan e: ethtan@ntu.edu.sg ____ __

40. Spares

41. Disease Transmission ofSARS and Avian Flu

42. Disease Transmission of SARS

43. Assumptions aboutDisease Transmission • No one is immune to the virus; 30% of the population will become ill • Most will become ill 2 days (incubation range 1-10, typically 7) after exposure to the virus • People may be contagious up to 24 hours before they know they are sick • People are most contagious the first 2 days of being sick • Sick children are more contagious than adults • On average, each ill person can infect 2 or 3 others (if no precautions are taken) Contact

44. Assumptions aboutDisease Transmission • Pandemics move through community in waves • Each wave in a community will last 6-8 weeks • There will be at least 2 “waves” of pandemic disease, likely separated by several months • The entire pandemic period (all waves) will last about 18 months to 2 years • Disease may break out in multiple locations simultaneously, or in isolated pockets

45. Arithmetic of Pandemic Fluuncontrolled for country of 4M population

46. Potential Realities over 8 weeks 30% of population = 1.2 million people sick (including 300,000 children) 120,000 hospital admissions 30,000 deaths (includes 8,000 children); 500 deaths per day (about 140 children) Not enough: Vaccine, antiviral meds (tamiflu), hospital beds, ventilators, face masks, etc. …plus schools closed, many parents/family members ill, potential quarantines, economy in trouble, little assistance from “the outside”, etc.

47. 1918 Spanish Flu (H1N1 similar to H5N1 virus)

48. Implications & Outcomes

49. http://mercerselect.com/article/20076090/t/y2-cj0zMzI1MiZsPTQ5MDgzJm09NTAwODMmZj0z-ZD05NDE2/http://mercerselect.com/article/20076090/t/y2-cj0zMzI1MiZsPTQ5MDgzJm09NTAwODMmZj0z-ZD05NDE2/

50. Post-perspective We cannot stop a pandemic (beyond your control), but we can lessen the impact (within your control) by planning, preparation and anticipation Then when it strikes, there will be more options to consider After-shock Unprepared Impact Prepared Weeks