Food Security in the Central Asia

1. CARRA, April14-15, 2011 Almaty, Kazakhstan Guljahan Kurbanova, FAO, Regional Office for Europe and Central Asia Guljahan.kurbanova@fao.org Food Security in the Central Asia

2. Food Security multidimensions Socio-economic and political environment • International level • International markets • Trade Agreements • Globalization • National level • Population & Education • Macroeconomic policy • Natural resources endowment • Agriculture sector • Market conditions • Subnational level • Household characteristics • Livelihood systems • Social institutions • Cultural

3. Food Security Components Four main pillars: Availability Accessibility Stability Utilization MDGs: MDG 1 MDG 3 MDG 4 MDG7 Stability: macroeconomic, social, political, environmental

4. Global Food Trends

5. Specifics of the Central Asia • Volatility of Economic Growth, % • Agricultural Characteristics • Irrigated lowlands • Lowland semi-arid natural pastures and highlands including croplands • Dry lowlands and deserts • Share of the agriculture sector: from 5 to 29 percent • Rural population: 57.7 percent (throughout the sub region from 42 to 72 percent)

6. Specifics of the Central Asia • Landlocked • Weak infrastructure (transportation and logistics) • Spread by income p/c, poverty, and population growth • Mono dietary nutrition • Vulnerable: weather, institutions, socio-politically • Water scarcity • Land degradation • Impact of climate change • Increased yields in KZ and KG • Decreased yields in TM and UZ • Uncertainty in TJ

7. Transitory and Chronic Food Insecurity • Transitory Food Insecurity (seasonable and unexpected) • Natural events (TJ, KG) • Economic shocks (KZ, KG) • Market fluctuation (KZ, KG, TJ) • Social unrest (KG, in 2010- the ethnic violence in southern Kyrgyzstan resulted in IDP of more than 300.000 people) • Chronic Food Insecurity • Imbalanced macro and micronutrients • Children stunting and wasting • Low birth weight rate • Shortage of vitamins

8. Production and productivity • Trade conditions: import/ export • WTO(Doha round), NCU, EAC • Economic shocks • High prices for food, fuel, fertilizers etc.) • Weather conditions & Climate Change • Natural Resources Main Factors

9. Food Security in the Central Asia Sources: World Bank povcalnet (latest year); WHO (latest year); “stunting” based on height for age.

10. UZB, TUR, KYR TAJ UZB, TUR, KYR TAJ

11. Red- fruits, vegetables, sugar and oils Blue- animal and livestock products Yellow- cereals and starch

12. Cereals Production in CA Countries (2001-2010, thousand tonnes)

13. Comparison of Production, Food Consumption, and Domestic Needs in cereals, 2010/11 (MY) • Source: Estimations, GIEWS, FAO, www.fao.org

14. Comparison of Food Consumption, Domestic Use and Import of Cereals in CA Countries, 2010, % (Domestic use includes food, feed, seed and others)

15. Retail prices of wheat flour in Tajikistan, 2008-2010

16. Wheat Flour and Bread Prices in Kyrgyzstan, national average and by locations, 2009-2011

17. Minimum 70 percent of household budget spent on food (KG, TJ, UZ) FOOD CONSUMPTION

18. Food Security Stability Problems • Poverty & Purchasing power distribution • Access to food for entire population • Volatility of availability • Undernourishment • Malnutrition • Households insecurity of vulnerable groups Potential risks • Import dependency • Trade conditions • Marginalization of society • Limited water resources • Nutrition deficiency • Access to markets • Social unrest

19. Thank you for attention!