Polishing the Crystal Ball: Using Historical Data to Project Serials Trends and Pricing

1. Polishing the Crystal Ball: Using Historical Data to Project Serials Trends and Pricing Stephen Bosch, University of Arizona Kittie Henderson, EBSCO Information Services Heather Klusendorf, EBSCO Information Services

3. What are price indices? Periodic measurement of price changes among similar set of items to show market fluctuation

4. Standards: Much of the current work on serials pricing is based on: “ANSI/NISO Z39.20 - Criteria for Price Indexes for Print Library Materials” published in 1999. “Describes how to prepare and compile price indexes to help you measure the extent of price changes on a periodic basis for a variety of library materials including hardcover trade and technical books, paperback books, periodicals, and microforms”. Serials Pricing Standard “ANSI/NISO Z39.20 - Criteria for Price Indexes for Print Library Materials” Link: http://bit.ly/ANSI_NISO

5. Serials Pricing Studies What’s Available? Library Journal “Periodical Price Survey” “Prices of U.S. and Foreign Published Materials” by the ALA ALCTS Library Materials Price Index (LMPI) Editorial Board in the Library and Book Trade Almanac published by Information Today Other studies such as the “American Association of Law Librarians Price Index for Legal Publications”

6. Different Approach, Similar Conclusions The major differences in the pricing publications are in methodology. • The articles that appear in Library Journal are periodicals price surveys. • The work done for ALA ALCTS has traditionally been a periodicals price index.

7. What’s the Difference? • Price surveys generally gather information from broad sources in order to measure price changes in the market place • A price index will measure the change in price for a limited but consistent set of items

8. Pay no attention to that man behind the curtain!

9. Methodology: Creating the LJ Survey • Data for the LJ survey is drawn from sets of serial titles contained in discreet packages, including: • Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) • Arts & Humanities Citation Index • Science Citation Index • Social Sciences Citation Index • EBSCO Publishing • Academic Search Premier (ASP_ • Masterfile Premier (MFP)

10. How Are the Titles Selected? • Titles included in the ISI products are selected based upon impact factor, the average number of citations to articles published in science and social science journals. • Titles included in the EBSCO products are based upon EBSCO editorial policy.

11. Methodology: Creating the LJ Survey • Pricing is derived from the EBSCO Information Services Title Database • approximately 6,982 items indexed by the ISI Indices • approximately 3,660 titles in EBSCO ASP • approximately 1,000 titles EBSCO Masterfile Premier • LJ Study includes titles published outside the U.S. • Titles may be included in both ISI and EBSCO indices

12. Nitty Gritty

13. More Nitty Gritty

14. Methodology: U.S. Periodical Price Index • The index produced by ALA ALCTS LMPI, the U.S. Periodical Price Index (USPPI) is drawn from a select sample of approximately 3,800 predominately print periodical titles published in the U.S. • Titles must meet definition of periodical outlined in ANSI Z39.20-1999: “A publication that comprises publications in a continuous series under the same title, published more than once a year over an indefinite period with individual issues in the series numbered consecutively or with each issue dated.”

15. Price Indexes for Print Library Materials • A price index is an economic indicator that in systematic fashion for a period of time and at fixed intervals of time (usually annual) provides for the derivation of average prices and changes in terms of index numbers. • They describe the essential characteristics of various forms of library materials (according to the standard) to allow for periodic measurement of those same characteristics. • A set of prices indexes is intended to meet administrative needs for budgeting, materials price analysis, and other purposes in libraries and other organizations with similar information needs. • They represent a standard measurement of the market dynamics of a particular publication type (format) rather than reflecting exact pricing for a specific library, publisher, or situation.

16. How Are the Titles Selected and Maintained for the USPPI? • Titles are selected and maintained over to time in order to provide a comprehensive sample “market basket” to gauge changes in serials data. • Titles may fall off the USPPI list due to changes such as cessation or move to a format which requires a custom quote. Titles which closely match price, subject, and audience replace the dropped title in the index. • The methodology for the USPPI most closely resembles that used in others indices like the Consumer Price Index.

17. Methodology Similarities • Both studies rely on standard list pricing, usually print. • EBSCO provides pricing data for both studies.

18. Still More Nitty Gritty …..

19. Different approaches, similar conclusions While approaches are different, both indicate that over the past few years periodical price inflation has consistently hovered in the 6-9% per annum range. The main conclusion is the same!

20. Periodicals Price Survey 2011 | Under Pressure, Times Are Changing How do the results of the price studies differ? • The LJ Periodical Price Survey shows, for the ISI data, 7.6 % increase in 2008-09 and 4.4% increase in 2009-10, and 5.3% increase for 2010-11. • The EBSCO ASP data shows a 9.4% increase in 2008-09 and a 4.1% increase in 2009-10, and 9.3% in 2010-11. • The USPPI showed an overall increase of 7.1% 2008-09 and 6.4% in 2009-10.

21. Periodicals Price Survey 2011 | Under Pressure, Times Are Changing

23. But which one is right for me? • It depends. • It is very important to understand what goes into a pricing tool and how it resembles or departs from local conditions.

24. So how does historical data turn into a forecast?

25. Interviews of industry professionals to get a sense of where things are going Data from recent price studies is the background for the development of projections – but the LJ price survey reviews much broader spectrum of information. Year long scan of news sources to keep up with changes in the market, hundreds of articles, blogs, etc. are reviewed Surveys of publishers and libraries concerning expected $ trends Review of other economic data, especially exchange rates

26. After polishing – what does the crystal ball show for the future? • Budgets for libraries and higher education are not in “recovery”. • After inflation calmed down last year, rates of increase are again on the rise with projections for next year approx. 7% for ISI titles and 8% for ASP. • With library budget in decline, this range of increase will be just as damaging as the price increases seen at the peak of the “serials crisis.” • No one comes out ahead - users will have decreased access to content - if budgets are going down and prices up something has to give!

27. Questions?

28. Heather Klusendorf Media Relations Coordinator EBSCO Information Services Kittie S. Henderson Director, Academic and Law Divisions EBSCO Information Services kittieh@ebsco.com Stephen Bosch Materials Budget, Procurement, and Licensing Librarian University of Arizona Library boschs@u.library.arizona.edu