1 / 33

The Future for Nuclear Power Richard Wilson Mallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics

The Future for Nuclear Power Richard Wilson Mallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics Harvard University. 1939 Nuclear fission discovered (Hahn and Strassman) Neutron chain reaction possibility shown! (Joliot, Halban and Kowarski) Euphoria! The "nuclear age" had come!.

dwinfield
Download Presentation

The Future for Nuclear Power Richard Wilson Mallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Future for Nuclear Power Richard Wilson Mallinckrodt Research Professor of Physics Harvard University CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  2. 1939Nuclear fission discovered (Hahn and Strassman)Neutron chain reactionpossibility shown! (Joliot, Halban and Kowarski)Euphoria!The "nuclear age" had come! CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  3. Only uranium 235 fissionable by slow neutronsOnly 3 suppliersJoachimstal, Czechoslovakia Union Minière, CongoEldorado mining Co, CanadaThe "nuclear age" was to be short lived! CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  4. Fissionable elements: A = 4N - 1(Bohr and Wheeler)Plutonium 239 discovered(Seaborg, McMillan, Ramannod and Wahl)Uranium 233 and others discoveredMcMillan and Seaborg - Nobel prize "Fermi's dream!" CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  5. "Fermi's dream!”Breeder reactor U 238 -> Pu 239 (100 times as much energy per gram)High efficiency in fuel use Transuranic elements consumedWaste fission productsT1/2 < 30 years CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  6. Uranium SuppliesBenedict 1971Price Resource Cost Increase Total Electricity$/lb tons LWRBreeder generatedU3O8 mills/kWhe Gwe x yr LWRBreeder8 (base) 594,0000.00.03,470460,00010 940,0000.10.05,500720,000 15 1,450,000 0.40.08,4801,120,00030 2,240,0001.30.013,1001,720,00050 10,000,0002.50.058,3007,700,000100 25,000,0005.50.0146,00019,200,000 CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  7. 7Busbar Cost of Nuclear Energy 1971 and 2002 (Benedict 1971 from Virginia Power & Light)Description 2002 1971Unit investment cost of plant, dollars/kw. $1700$255Annual capital charge rate per year 0.13 0.13 kilowatt-hours generated per year per kw. capacity 7,446 5,256Cost of electricity, mills/kwh.: Plant investment 29.76.31Operation and Maintenance 15.0 0.38 Fuel 2.051.87TOTAL 46.758.56 CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  8. Why has the construction cost gone up?-demands by the public? Will public perception change?- Heat exchanger failures?(Auto radiatiors a few% of cost per KW)- increased real safety?(yet analysis is cheap)-increased regulation? CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  9. Problemsincrease in construction cost(general)Public perception:proliferation problemsSafety CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  10. The Ford NightmareKeeny et al. 1975 (Rossin 1998)Theft or "Diversion"of enough to make aBOMB! CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  11. Improved Fuel AvailabilityFuel for 30 yearsNo incentive for explorationMore exploration -> more uraniumImproved “burnup”(1973) 20,000 MW days/ ton(1999) 40,000 MW days/ ton(fewer fuel outages)This brings cost down CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  12. 1972 CONSTRUCTION COSTMaine Yankee $180 million$200 per MWeInflation Corr. $600 per MWhOPERATING COSTConnecticut Yankee <0.4 cents/kWhe Yankee Rowe <0.9 cents/kWheBenedict estimate 0.3 cents/kWhInflation corrected: 1 cent/kWhe CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  13. 1998 operating cost1.4 cents/kWhe (S.Texas)1.5 cents/kWhe (Seabrook)1.7 cents/kWhe (Palo Verde)1.9 cents/kWhe (Av.USA) (McKoy) CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  14. 1998 construction cost$1,690 per MWe(GE reactor in Taiwan)four cents per kWheMUCH higher than $600/MWe CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  15. DEMAND FOR ENERGY1970Demand increasing(particularly electricity)electricity use X 2 every 9 yrs.President Kennedy advocatedcheap energyoil and gas prices were droppingpolitically and morally acceptable to "spend" energy CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  16. PUBLIC PERCEPTION CHANGES 1973 Arab oil embargo1979 Iraq- Iran war Politically correct to"conserve energy" CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  17. INCREASING FOSSIL FUEL1850 coal will run out in 30 years!1912 UK control of Anglo-Iranian1947 UK electricity rationing 1962 (King Hubbert) - 90% of oil discovered (in the USA)1978 (Vienna) UK Cabinet MinisterN. Sea oil < 1 million bbl/day(all gone in 20 years - today)1999 N. Sea 4 million bbl/day CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  18. GAS(1973) comes only with oil(1999) gas more plentifulEFFICIENCY(1999) Combined cycle X 2Less greenhouse gases Few particulates CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  19. UNDERSTANDING HISTORY“He who does not understand history is condemned to repeat it”Why did we dismantle FERMI I?WHY did Rickover choose LWR not LMR?Why were other reactor types rejected?(HTGR, Pebble bed, etc.) CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  20. LWRFUEL USE IMPROVEMENTS(1973) 20,000 MW days/ ton(1999) 40,000 MW days/ ton(fewer fuel outages)This SHOULD bring cost down CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  21. 1984NAS(Energy Engineering Board)proposed acost studyOPPOSED by EPRIWHY? CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  22. ????????????The early plants were TURNKEY. Construction costs generally have risen since 1970 We had good management and personnel in 1972 - now we don’tMandated retrofits after TMI????????? CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  23. Over-regulation(Towers and Perrin 1995)Prescriptive not PerformanceDresden-II staff 250 (1975) -> 1,300+ (1997)unnecessary safety-grade equipment CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  24. Is excessive regulation inevitable?YES: unless the utility industry fights in the courts as much as the antinukes.Is there hope?Chairman Jackson emphasized that this area is vitalAm I optimistic?NO!There is no proof that people are sensible CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  25. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORSforair pollutionglobal warming(Meeting Kyoto commitments) we do not need the breeder reactor. CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  26. The LONGER TERMIf promises are met for:safetyproliferation resistance costa fast neutron reactorwill be usefulfor waste disposalefficiencyYEAR 2100 + CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  27. EARLY OPTIMISMaboutLIQUID SODIUM REACTORSSeawolf Submarine worked(sometimes)Sodium not corrosive(except to human skin!)Higher temperature and efficiency CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  28. CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  29. CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  30. "Fermi's dream!”Benedict’s conclusion (1991)The expensive uranium would increase cost 50%Build a Breeder as soon as Possible! CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  31. FAST NEUTRON REACTOR IMPROVEMENTSFuel burn up (metal fuel) was 1%NOW > 20%SAFERCheaperPyroprocessing possible(proliferation resistance)WHY DIDN’T THE COSTS COME DOWN? CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  32. THE THORIUM CYCLE1959Indian Point designed to allow thorium Thorium reserves = 6 xUranium reserves CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

  33. The interpretation of theBenedict/OECD numbers has changedBusbar cost is now 5 c/kwhThe difference in costis negligible CALState University Sacramento. April 11th 2002

More Related