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Florida in the Future: Competing as a Megaregion

Florida in the Future: Competing as a Megaregion. presented to Leadership Polk presented by John Kaliski Cambridge Systematics, Inc. November 19, 2009. Presentation Outline. Megatrends shaping the global economy Florida’s changing economic geography Implications for Polk County.

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Florida in the Future: Competing as a Megaregion

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  1. Florida in the Future:Competing as a Megaregion presented to Leadership Polk presented by John Kaliski Cambridge Systematics, Inc. November 19, 2009

  2. Presentation Outline • Megatrends shaping the global economy • Florida’s changing economic geography • Implications for Polk County

  3. The World Is Flat Source: The Path to 2050, Goldman Sachs.

  4. The World Is Flat Travel time to major cities (in hours and days) and shipping lane density Source: European Communities, 2008

  5. The World Is Also Spiky Light Emissions ~ Economic Activity Population Density Source: Richard Florida, The Atlantic, 2005

  6. The World Also Is Getting Crowded1 in 6 New Americans Could Be Floridians FLORIDA 12.7% 450 million California 12.6% 300 million Texas 12.5% Rest of U.S. 44.4% 200 million 2008 100 million 1850 1900 1800 1950 2000 2050 Source: U.S. Census Bureau

  7. And Our Geography Is Getting More Complex

  8. And Our Geography Is Becoming More ComplexFrom Metro Regions to Super Regions Seattle-Tacoma (25m) Minneapolis-St.Paul (8m) Orlando - Tampa (80m) D.C. - Baltimore (35m) Dallas-Ft. Worth (30m) Miami - West Palm Beach (65m) Phoenix - Tucson (110m)

  9. Birth of a Super RegionTampa Bay, Polk County, and Central Florida 1970 – 2.5 million 1990–4.9 million 2000–6.0 million 2007–7.1 million Source: Florida Geographic Data Library

  10. 7th Largest Region in the United StatesPopulation 2007 1. New York-Northern NJ-SW CT 2. Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange Cty 3. Chicago-Gary-Kenosha 4. Washington-Baltimore 5. Boston-Providence-Manchester 6. San Francisco Bay Area 7.1 million 7.Tampa Bay- Central Florida 8. Dallas- Fort Worth 9. Philadelphia 0 5 10 15 20 Population (in Millions) Source: US Census Bureau

  11. 15th Largest Economy in the World2005 Gross Regional Product 1. New York-Northern NJ-Southwest CT 2. Tokyo 3. Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange Cty 10. Osaka-Kobe 11. Mexico City 12. Houston 13. Philadelphia 14. Dallas-Fort Worth 15. Tampa Bay-Central Florida 16. Atlanta 17. Buenos Aires 18. Hong Kong 19. Miami-Fort Lauderdale 20. Detroit 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Dollars (in Billions) $256 billion Source: Citymayors.com with PriceWaterhouse Coopers

  12. From a Super Region to a Megaregion

  13. Emerging Megaregions Source: America 2050

  14. What Ties Us Together?Commuting Patterns Residence Density Employment Density Employment Density • 99 percent of employees live and work within region • 3.1 million private sector jobs • 2.1 million, or 68 percent of jobs are within 5 miles of Interstate corridors Source: US Census, Local Employment Dynamics

  15. What Ties Us Together? B2B Relationships • 23-county High Tech Corridor • 21,454 companies • 263,000 high tech workers • 70 percent of Florida's high-tech jobs • 3 of nation’s 10 largest universities

  16. What Ties Us Together?Global Gateways

  17. What Ties Us Together? MetroJacksonville.com • Visitors • Military • History and culture • Agriculture • Water • Habitat and wildlife corridors • Recreation areas

  18. Socio-Cultural Identity Is Still Emerging Pensacola Tallahassee Jacksonville Orlando Magic Gainesville Orlando Miami Heat Tampa Jacksonville Jaguars Tampa Bay Devil Rays Miami Tampa BayBuccaneers Florida Marlins Tampa Bay Lightning MiamiDolphins Florida Panthers Source: CommonCensus.org

  19. Can the Super Region Compete Globally? Key Issues Connectivity Education &economy Regional cooperation Quality growth

  20. EducationPercent of Adult Population with 4-year degree, 2007 43% 35% 33% 30% 27% 25% 27.5% 25.8% CentralFlorida TampaBay San Francisco Bay Dallas- Ft Worth Florida Seattle-Tacoma DC-Baltimore US Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census

  21. Economic DiversificationPercent of Employment in High-Tech Industries, 2007 13% 12% 7% 7% 4% 4% 4% 3% CentralFlorida TampaBay Seattle-Tacoma Dallas- Ft Worth DC – Baltimore San Francisco Bay Florida US Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

  22. ConnectivityPercent of Commuters using Public Transportation, 2007 11% 11% 8% 5% 1.3% 1.2% 2% 2% DC – Baltimore San Francisco Bay Dallas- Ft Worth Seattle-Tacoma Florida CentralFlorida US TampaBay Source: US Census Bureau, 2007

  23. Future Development Choices Urbanized Area 1970 – 2.5 million 1990 – 4.9 million 2000 – 6.0 million 2020 – 8.8 million 2040 – 11.3 million 2060 – 13.9 million Source: USGS, Florida Geographic Data Library and 1000 Friends of Florida.

  24. Barriers to Regional CooperationDifferences in Planning Perspectives Private Sector Global National Regional Local Public Sector

  25. Barriers to Regional CooperationDifferences in Regional Boundaries Regional Planning Councils Water Management Districts FDOT Districts Metropolitan/Transportation Planning Organizations Enterprise Florida Regions

  26. Florida Regional Visioning Processes Our Region Tomorrow First Coast Vision How Shall We Grow? Southeast Florida 2060 Committee for a Sustainable Emerald Coast One Bay Heartland 2060 Committee for a Sustainable Treasure Coast Southwest Florida 2060

  27. Choices for Polk County • Blend into surrounding regions? • Become an island? • Position to be the connector of 3 regions?

  28. How Do We Compete? Think… Think Also… High skilled workers Global connectivity Livable communities Sustainable environment Regions, super regions and megaregions Low cost labor Location Low cost of living Natural resources Individual communities

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