Florida’s Demographic Trends… Present and Future

1. Florida’s Demographic Trends… Present and Future Dr. Tim Chapin Department of Urban & Regional Planning Center for Demography and Population Health Florida State University Presentation at the Florida State Victims Assistance Academy (FSVAA) Conference West Palm Beach, Florida July 28, 2008

2. Aspects of Population of Interest to Service Providers When it comes to population, service professionals are typically interested in the following: 1) Population size and growth, 2) Population composition, 3) Population distribution, 4) Changesin these factors over time, 5) Potential Consequences of these changes. Today, we’ll discuss major population trends in the United States and Florida, with an eye towards understanding how and why service providers should be aware of these trends.

3. Topic #1: Population Growth

4. Pop Quiz • 1. How populous was Florida in 1850? • What were the most populous places & counties? 2. How populous was Florida in 1900? • What were the most populous places & counties? 3. How populous was Florida in 1950? • What were the most populous places & counties? 4. How populous was Florida in 2000? • What were the most populous places & counties?

5. Ongoing Population Growth Roughly 90,000 Just over 500,000 Almost 3 million Almost 16 million

6. Florida Population Today • As of the 2000 Census, Florida had almost 16 million residents (15,982,378). • By 2000, Florida was the nation’s fourth largest state, with the expectation that in the next 20 years it would pass New York for 3rd Place. • During the 1990s, the state added over 3 million new residents, a rate of growth of roughly 23.5%. • Other Indicators of the State’s Economic Activity • The State University System grew by over 70,000 students in the 1990s (almost two new FSUs). • It is estimated that the state welcomed over 75 million visitors in 2005.

7. Florida Today • Florida remains one of the fastest growing states in the country, even after adding 300,000 net new residents per year for each of the last thirty-five years. • This growth has placed strains on many of the state’s infrastructure, urban service, and social service systems: • Roads, Potable water supplies, Solid waste • Police and fire, EMS, Courts • Homeless shelters, Free clinics, Victim assistance • Despite recent economic problems, there is every reason to believe this growth will endure… • the Florida Boom continues with no end in sight

8. Projected Population Growth

9. Florida Population Growth • The state’s official population forecast predicts another 3 million new residents per decade for the foreseeable future. • Holding other factors constant, then, social service needs are expected to increase by over 30% between 2000 and 2015.

10. Topic #2: Population Composition

11. Pop Quiz • By 2000, how big was Florida’s elderly population? • In 2000, what percentage of Florida’s residents were aged 65+? • What percentage of Florida’s residents are Foreign Born? • What percentage of Florida’s residents do not speak English at home?

12. Population Composition • Population composition: The characteristics of the population being studied. Among those characteristics of most interest : --Age --Race/Ethnicity --Country of origin --Language spoken • Trends Affecting Population Composition • The United States and Florida experienced many changes in these attributes throughout the Twentieth Century: 1) An aging population 2) An increasingly racially and ethnically diverse population 3) An increasingly culturally and linguistically diverse population

13. Population Pyramids • One way of looking at changes in the composition of a population is through Population Pyramids. • Population pyramids show the composition of a population by age and sex (or the percent of the total population in each age-sex cohort). • These pyramids typically show the following: • --Males on left side/Females on the right side • --Age groups as individual cohorts going from youngest on the bottom to oldest on the top

14. U.S. Population Pyramids 1900, 1950, 2000 Baby Boom Baby Boomlet

15. Florida Population Pyramid, 2000 Baby Boom Baby Boomlet

16. The Growth of the Elderly Population

17. Yes, We’re as Old as We Think We Are!

18. …And We’re Only Getting Older

19. America HAS Changed The “Dependency Ratio” 1900-2050 (Children and Elderly per 100 People) Children Elderly

20. …But We’ve Got Lots of College Kids, Too! Florida’s Booming Higher Ed System

21. The U.S. as a Melting Pot

22. The Growth in the Hispanic Population

23. Ethnicity Matters: The Demographic Differences Between Hispanics and Non-Hispanics

24. Florida as a “Gateway State” • Florida is one of several “gateway states” that take in the vast majority of immigrants to the United States. (CA, TX, NY) • As of 2005, roughly 1 in 6 (16%) of Florida residents were born outside of the United States.

25. Impacts of the Melting Pot • A Large Percentage of Foreign Born Residents • The 2000 Census found that 2.7 million Florida residents were Foreign Born (16.7% of the state’s population). • Florida ranked 5th in the nation on this measure. • Many Households Where English is not Spoken at Home • The 2000 Census found that almost 3.5 million Florida residents speak a language other than English at home (23.1% of the state’s population). • Florida ranked 8th in the nation on this measure.

26. Why Demographics Matter • Crime statistics bear out a very simple message: • Demographics Matter! • Crime rates continue to vary by key demographic attributes, including: • Age: Peak victimization rates between 12-25 • Race: Blacks are victims at a higher rate than Whites • Ethnicity: Hispanics are victimized at a higher rate than non-Hispanics • Gender: Generally speaking, Males are more likely to be victims than Females • Elderly Crime: More than nine in ten crimes against the elderly were property crimes

27. Why Demographics Matter: Age http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/vage.htm

28. Why Demographics Matter: Race

29. Why Demographics Matter: Gender

30. Topic #3: Population Distribution

31. Population Distribution • Population distribution: The location of population across geography/space. • Trends Shaping Population Distribution • Major shifts in population distribution occurred in the Twentieth Century in the United States: • --Concentration: Movement from Rural to Metro Areas • --Deconcentration: Movement from Cities to Suburbs • Service providers should be interested in these changes as they will impact the location and type of services required by the population.

32. Population Distribution in Florida

33. Concentration Illustrated Roughly 4 of every 5 Americans lives in a metropolitan area now.

34. Deconcentration Illustrated As of 2000, 1 of every 2 Americans lives in a suburban area.

35. Growth in the Burbs and Exurbs:2000-2015 Pop Growth Rates by County • Major Population Trends in FL • Growth throughout Florida • Ongoing growth in SW FL • Continued Orlando MSA Boom • Emergence of FGN

36. Topic #4: Households

37. Pop Quiz • What was the average household size in… --1900 --1950 --2000 • 2) If you were a developer, which of the following product niches do you think is the best place to make money: • “McMansions” (>4000 sq ft homes) • Conventional suburbs • Zero Lot Line Homes • Condos and Multi-family apartments

38. Households Get Smaller,While Homes Get Bigger

39. “Leave it to Beaver” Getting Left Behind

40. The vast majority (~90%) of new households created in the next two decades will not contain children. • In particular, lots more “singles” households will come into existence.

41. Why Location Matters • Traditionally Americans have thought that Crime, especially Violent Crime, is an inner-city problem. • There is some truth to this view, but Crime (like people) is suburbanizing. • Urban households continue to be the most vulnerable to property crime, burglary, motor vehicle theft and theft. • But, suburban crime is up; In some metro areas crime rates are growing faster in suburban areas than in urban areas.

42. Summing Up: Part I • Florida will continue to boom.There will be a growing need for services (in a fiscal climate where less funding may be available). • There is an aging population, with roughly 1 in 4 Floridians of elderly age by 2025.There will be increased (and specialized) demands for elderly services. • A population that continues to diversify.Service providers will need to recognize and be prepared for increasingly complex households, cultural settings, and language issues.

43. Summing Up: Part II • Suburbanization and exurbanization appear set to continue.Services will be required across a wider geographic area, to an increasingly (geographically) disconnected population. • Non-children households, especially “singles” households, are where the growth is.While there may be an emphasis upon married couple households and/or households with children, household trends are moving away from this classic suburban household model.

44. Where to Go for Information onDemographic Conditions and Trends • The Best Source: The Census Bureau • http://www.census.gov • See especially the “Quickfacts” section of their website • Sources for Florida Specific Information • Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR) at the University of Florida • Center for Demography and Population Health at Florida State University • Sources for Local Data • Your City/County Planning Departments