1 / 16

Low carbon scenarios for the UK Energy White Paper

Low carbon scenarios for the UK Energy White Paper. Peter G Taylor Presented at “Energy, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios”. 29-30 June 2004, EEA, Copenhagen. Overview of presentation.

dyanne
Download Presentation

Low carbon scenarios for the UK Energy White Paper

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Low carbon scenarios for the UK Energy White Paper Peter G Taylor Presented at “Energy, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios”. 29-30 June 2004, EEA, Copenhagen

  2. Overview of presentation • The Royal Commission on Environmental Pollution report on “Energy - the changing climate” • The UK Energy White Paper • Modelling approach to scenario work • Results and conclusions

  3. Royal Commission Report - topics covered • Scenarios for future energy demand & supply; • Environmental implications of such scenarios; • Scope for reducing demand; • Potential contributions to energy supplies; • Assessment of alternative energy technologies; • Role of government & markets; • Effectiveness of present institutions in framing & delivering energy policies.

  4. Royal Commission Report - conclusions on CO2 objectives • Further action required from both developed & developing nations • Global climate agreement based on contraction & convergence, with emissions trading . • An upper limit on CO2 concentrations of 550 ppmv, with convergence by 2050. • UK CO2 emissions should reduce by about 60% by 2050 and by 80% by 2100.

  5. UK Energy White Paper

  6. Goals of new UK energy policy • to put the UK on a path to cut the UK’s CO2 emissions by 60% by about 2050, with real progress by 2020 • to maintain the reliability of energy supplies • to promote competitive markets in the UK and beyond • to ensure that every home is adequately and affordably heated.

  7. Aims of low carbon scenario work • to develop bottom-up baseline carbon dioxide emissions projections to 2050 • to identify potential technical options for carbon dioxide abatement • to investigate the cost of reducing carbon emissions

  8. Modelling approach • Bottom-up technology model • Size and timing of changes • Spread of action between supply and demand • Apply emissions constraints • Estimate system costs • Sensitivity analyses

  9. Overview of model

  10. Scenarios • Baseline • World Markets • Global Sustainability Exploring a range of possible futures covering both economic and social change Many sensitivities also examined

  11. Fuel Mix in Electricity Generation- Baseline scenario

  12. Fuel Mix in Electricity Generation- 60% CO2 reduction in 2050(limited energy efficiency)

  13. Energy Use in Transport - 60% CO2 reduction in 2050

  14. Annual cost of reducing emissions by 60 % in 2050 £bn/yr

  15. Sensitivities to look at costs under different assumptions

  16. Main conclusions • Diversity of technology options for reducing CO2 emissions • Energy efficiency is central, but not sufficient, to achieve 60 % CO2 reduction • Abatement costs are highly uncertain, but effects on growth are likely to be relatively small • Innovation & technical progress are essential • Key technology groups: end-use energy efficiency, renewable energy, carbon capture & storage, hydrogen & nuclear power

More Related