The Global Effort to Understand Carbon Dioxide

1. The Global Effort to Understand Carbon Dioxide James R. Mahoney, Ph.D. Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and AtmosphereNOAA Deputy Administrator Director: US Climate Change Science Program September 26, 2005

2. Outline • Carbon Dioxide Variability • Role of Atmosphere in Carbon Cycle • Role of Oceans in Carbon Cycle • Role of Terrestrial Processes in Carbon Cycle • Future Directions in Assessing the Carbon Cycle Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO

3. Long Term Record of Atmospheric CO2 • Increase in CO2 in the past 100 years is unprecedented in ~450ky • Modern record shows increasing NH source throughout century • Interhemispheric difference has been increasing • Seasonal Cycle is largest in NH Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO

4. Atmospheric CO2

5. Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO

6. Radiative Forcing by Long-Lived Atmospheric Gases Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO

7. Global Atmospheric Watch (WMO/GAW) Monitoring Sites for CO2 Monitoring Stations for Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO

8. Courtesy of World Data Centre For Greenhouse Gases http://gaw.kishou.go.jp/wdcgg.html Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO

9. Data-Driven Interpretive Analysis:Identifying Global Sources and Sinks Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO

10. Oceanic Processes

11. Ocean Carbon Inventory • Column inventory of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean (mol m2). • High inventories are associated with deep water formation in the North Atlantic and intermediate and mode water formation between 30° and 50°S. • Total inventory of shaded regions is 106 ± 17 Pg C. (From Sabine et al. 2004) Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO

12. Sea-air exchange of carbon dioxide Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO

13. Terrestrial Processes

14. Carbon Dioxide Partitioning • Terrestrial biosphere takes up approximately three billion tons of human emitted carbon dioxide per year Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO

15. CO2 in Air:North Atlantic minus North Pacific • Average concentrations of CO2 in marine surface air indicate that the continent of North America could be a net sink of CO2. • Or is this a more “local” effect that is caused mainly by sources/sinks in the ocean basins? parts per million Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO

16. Future Directions

17. US Effort—Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) • Guides and directs federal research efforts • Answers emerging climate science questions addresses key climate research challenges • Involves 13 Federal Agencies/Departments • Overseen by Ministerial/Cabinet-level officials • Operates on a ~$2B annual expenditure Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO

18. CCSP Strategic Plan(www.climatescience.gov) • Chapter 3: Atmospheric Composition • Chapter 7: Carbon Cycle • Chapter 12: Observing and Monitoring the Climate System • S&A Product 2.2: Will provide a synthesis and integration of the current knowledge of the North American carbon budget and its context within the global carbon cycle. In a format useful to decisionmakers Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO

19. International Efforts— GEOSS • Leadership in development and implementation of the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) • GCOS is a major contribution to GEOSS for climate observations • GEOSS supports integrated global observations of CO2 & related gases • Climate Technical Reference Document (USG document) Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO

20. Charles David Keeling1928—2005 Seventh International Carbon Dioxide Conference, Boulder CO