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USING & INTERPRETING THE DSF. Presenter: Hugh Cross MDBC. PART 1: Use of DSF Analyses within the BDP and Rules Development Processes. Analytical Framework for Impact Assessment in the LMB. Key water related sectors:. Planning Step E2: Setting DSF Scenario Components.
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USING & INTERPRETING THE DSF Presenter: Hugh Cross MDBC
PART 1: Use of DSF Analyses within the BDP and Rules Development Processes
Planning Step E2: Setting DSF Scenario Components Climate Conditions • Assuming the future is represented by conditions in: • 1985-2000 • Any selected period within 1985-2000 • Representative years (wet, dry, typical) • New time-series of predicted conditions based on climate change forecasts • Or any of the above with factored changes in: • Rainfall, temperature etc • Sea level change • Changes in tidal range
System Demands • Assuming the future is represented by changed conditions in: • Urban and rural water supply dependent on river abstractions • Industrial water supply dependent on river abstractions • Changes in existing irrigation areas • New irrigation areas • Changes in crop mixes • Changes in irrigation efficiencies • Changes in drainage/return flow • Freshwater aquaculture
Proposed Interventions • Land management practices: • Change in catchment runoff factors • Reservoirs (including hydropower): • New reservoirs in China • New reservoirs in LMB • Changes in operation of existing reservoirs • Flood protection (d/s Kratie): • New embankments and roads • Raised embankments and roads • Channel improvements (d/s Kratie): • Dredging and re-profiling • Cross-regulation • Salinity intrusion barriers
Scenario Planning Step E5: DSF Tools for testing changes in indicators Time-Series Tools:
PART 2: USING THE DSF • Your team and other little helpers • Where to find the DSF • Mother’s shopping list • Conversations with an monk • Other things that you will need • Oh, so someone has been here before? • But now we are real explorers… • Shhhh, its thinking…. • Santa Clause and gods bearing gifts…
1. Your team and other little helpers • Planning team: • Planners • Sector programs • National agencies • Specialist modellers BDP Planning Team
2. Where to find the DSF • Coming to a store near you soon: • In the MRC secretariat mobile office • In each of the 4 NMC offices • At each location: • Accessible by any authorised user on a PC linked to the office LAN • Regular updates to each office to ensure data consistency DSF – all customers served over 6yrs
3. Mother’s shopping list • Mother’s National PlanShopping list for Cambodia… • Economic objectives • Poverty alleviation • Infrastructure development • Subsistence fisheries objectives • Power generation • Agricultural development • … • …and various other nationalgoals & objectives • The DSF organises future basin conditions within ‘scenarios’ • Each scenario requires: • An objective • Specification of future conditions • Future conditions are organised by: • Climate parameters • Demands (water requirements) • Interventions (physical)
4. Conversations with an monk • Basin Planning using a DSF requires many types of monks: • Planning monks – mostly you guys, including; • River basin planners, e.g. for water resource development • Economists • Social specialists • Sector monks(MRCS, NMCs, National agencies); • Fisheries • Navigation • Environment • Agriculture • Aquaculture • etc • Modelling monks– i.e. the DSF ‘monks’
5. Other things that you will need • To run a new scenario the DSF monks need advice on: • Input parameters: • Climate • Demands / management • Physical interventions • Output parameters: • Which locations & frequencies (hourly, daily, weekly…) for each time-series parameter • Which time periods (whole year or a season or month) • What parameters to use for maps of floods and saline intrusion
Highest ? Daily maximum ? Mean ? Daily minimum? Lowest ? 10 days • Modelled water levels at Ben Luc 1998
6. Oh, so someone has been here before? • The results of previous scenarios can be saved to the DSF for others to use: • All models have default output settings – parameters, times & locations • Scenario models are saved – so if you want additional parameters, times & locations just ask the modeller monks to re-run the models with your preferences • Impact analysis results may have been saved to the DSF • Caution! – be sure to check all assumptions, scenario configurations, indicator settings before using – ask your friendly modeller monk to assist checking the model parameters
7. But now we are real explorers… • Scenario set up time & difficulty depends on the nature of the future conditions to be simulated • Also… • All new scenarios are based on an existing scenario • The choice of the ‘parent’ scenario is up to the user • The most common ‘parent’ is likely to be the Baseline Conditions scenario – as it the one to which others are to be compared • New scenarios don’t always require all 3 models to be re-run • The 3 models can only be changed by the expert modeller monks
Hydrologic model – • Can factor rainfall & temperature easily • Can introduce completely new climate data if available – e.g. for climate change scenarios • Soil, landcover, land management practices take more time – please have a coffee • Caution is need in modelling landuse change given the limited data available for calibration
River Simulation model – can change: • Crop areas for both dry and wet seasons - moderately easy • Crop water demands - moderately easy • Return flows (to the river) - easy • New operational rules for existing dams - easy if rules are clear • New storages - moderately easy if all information available • Non-irrigation demands – e.g. higher urban demands - easy • Temperature and rainfall are changed through input files common to both the Hydrologic and Simulation models
Minimum data Catchment Rainfall Streamflow Evaporation Storages Diversion locations Design water use Desirable additional where available/appropriate Actual water use Licensing Crop types and areas Actual pump capacities User decisions Existing operating rules River simulation model data needs:( =capacity to change these parameters )
Hydrodynamic model – can change; • Physical topographic features • Channels • Levees • Roads • River channel location, width, depth • River flow • By changes to flows at Kratie & Tonle Sap tributaries • By alterations to water demands – irrigation & others • Sea level changes
Area covered by the hydrodynamic model Kratie Phnom Penh
8. Shhhh, its thinking…. • Running the DSF simulations: • Time for a cup of coffee – let the modellers get on the mysterious • “I’ll be back!” modellers often come back wanting changes – (more) compromises needed in schematising the scenario • Each type of model takes different lengths of time to run – the Hydrodynamic model takes the longest – about 40 minutes • Saving the results to the DSF takes additional time – perhaps as long as it takes to run the models • The more you ask for (locations, short time-steps) the longer they take to run and to save to the DSF • The volumes of data are large – the DSF models & results for 8 scenarios currently use 5 GB
9. Santa Clause and gods bearing gifts… • Checking & using the results: • Users should have a pre-conception of what “should” result from a scenario – • Check against this pre-conception • Explore differences relative to the baseline or other ‘reference’ scenario • Conduct ‘sensitivity’ tests by changing input parameter values & re-running the models • Use the impact analysis tools to; • Conduct the above checks • Explore the usefulness of particular indicators for analysing the changes of interest • Conduct the comparative analysis with the selected indicators
Time-Series Tools Tools • Use the results of the 3 simulation models • Simulated data accessed through the main DSF interface
All simulated data are stored by scenario, so… • First open a scenario
Choose the data sets: • By site and/or by parameter…
Stung Treng Phnom Penh
