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Alabama Economic Outlook 2014

Alabama Economic Outlook 2014. Center for Business and Economic Research. Alabama’s Aerospace Industry -- An Accelerate Alabama Focus. Boeing in Alabama – more than 50 years. Employees: 2,693 (Oct. 2013) Additional engineering jobs to be created: up to 400 *

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Alabama Economic Outlook 2014

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  1. Alabama Economic Outlook 2014 Center for Business and Economic Research

  2. Alabama’s Aerospace Industry--An Accelerate Alabama Focus

  3. Boeing in Alabama – more than 50 years • Employees: 2,693 (Oct. 2013) • Additional engineering jobs to be created: up to 400* • Supplier/vendor locations: 234** • Supplier/vendor purchases: $483 million** * The firm is establishing a new research center in Huntsville that will focus on simulation and decision analytics and metals and chemical technology; one of five technology centers nationwide. ** 2012 data

  4. Lockheed Martin in Alabama –50thAnniversary in 2013 • New missile contract: $3.9 billion* • Huntsville employees: 850 • Troy employees: 360 + 100 by 2020 *New contract for Terminal High Altitude Defense Weapons Systems will boost the firm’s operating facility in Troy and program office in Huntsville.

  5. Airbus A320 Project in Mobile • Investment: $600 million • Employees: up to 1,000 • First delivery:2016 • Investment: $75 million • Employees: up to 400 by 2020 New GE Aviation Factory in Auburn

  6. Alabama Exports: Aircraft, Spacecraft, and Parts

  7. Department of Defense Contracts byPlace of Performance, Southeastern States, FY2013

  8. Alabama Average Weekly Wage, 2012

  9. Alabama Average Annual Pay

  10. Alabama Aerospace Products and Parts Manufacturing Employment

  11. U.S. Aircraft Projections: Net Stock and Exports

  12. Alabama’s Business Community: Concerns and Expectations

  13. Top Issues Facing Alabama Note: Football championships/Alabama loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl issue was mentioned by 2.5% of respondents. Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists’ Poll, Nov.-Dec. 2013.

  14. Top Issues Facing Companies in Alabama Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, ABCI Panelists’ Poll, Nov.-Dec. 2013.

  15. Alabama Business Confidence IndexTM (ABCI) First Quarter 2014

  16. U.S. and Alabama EconomiesExpectations versus Prior Quarter

  17. Sales and ProfitsExpectations versus Prior Quarter

  18. Hiring and Capital ExpendituresExpectations versus Prior Quarter

  19. ABCI by Industry

  20. Metro Area ABCIExpectations versus Prior Quarter 56.2 55.4 53.2 44.9

  21. 96.5 percent use the ABCI forecast ----ABCI National Economy and U.S. Real GDP

  22. Alabama: Where are we now and where are we heading? Population and Workforce

  23. The population is aging due to demographic factors and longevity increases (4,833,722 on 07/01/2013)

  24. The median age rose from 35.8 in 2000 to 37.9 in 2010 and 38.2 in 2012.Baby Boomers move from ages 46-64 in 2010 to ages 61-79 in 2025. Source: U.S. Census Bureau and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.

  25. From a 2010 base, worker shortfalls of about 113,000 in 2020 and 307,000 in 2030 are expected. Worker skills, shortfalls in critical occupations, and both medium and long term worker shortfalls must be priorities through 2030, with heavy emphasis on skills and critical jobs. • Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, IHS Global Insight, U.S. Census Bureau, and Center for • Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.

  26. Alabama Workforce Report VII Total number of occupations = 785 High-demand = 40 (growth- and wages-weighted & minimum 40 annual job openings) Fast-growing = 20 (3.40% annual growth rate & 15 annual job openings minimum) High-earning = 50 (annual salary of $90,490 - $251,470) Sharp-declining = 20 (10% or more job decline & minimum net job loss of 40) * through November 2013 Source: Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama and Labor Market Information Division, Alabama Department of Labor.

  27. Efforts to address skill needs, shortfalls in critical occupations, and both medium and long term worker shortfalls must include: Improving education and its funding Focusing on hard-to-serve populations (e.g. out-of-school & at-risk youth) Lowering the high school dropout rate Programs to assess, retrain, and place dislocated workers—especially those affected by outsourcing—should be continued and enhanced because they can improve the labor force participation rate Recruiting: Using economic opportunities to attract new residents Facilitating in-commuting Encouraging older worker participation Alabama Workforce Report VII: Implications and Recommendations

  28. Alabama Economy: Where are we heading? GDP and Employment Exports Auto Industry Forecast A better year in 2014!

  29. Monthly Employment Indicators (November 2013) Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.

  30. Unemployment Rates (Percent) Anniston-Oxford Source: Alabama Department of Labor.

  31. Alabama Nonfarm Employment(Change in Number of Jobs) Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.

  32. Alabama Jobs Scorecard Source: Alabama Department of Labor, Labor Market Information Division.

  33. Change in Alabama Employment From the Beginning of the Recession (Number of Months)

  34. Alabama Manufacturing EmploymentAnnual Percent Change Source: Alabama Department of Labor and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.

  35. Alabama Metro Percent of State GDP, 2012

  36. Alabama Car and Light Truck Production Source: Alabama OEM reports.

  37. Alabama Export Trends Total Transportation Equipment Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Center.

  38. Southeastern States: Manufacturing Share of RealGross Domestic Product(Percent of Total) Source: Estimates based on U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis data.

  39. Southeastern States: Manufacturing Share of Nonfarm Employment (Percent Of Total) Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

  40. U.S. Economic Outlook Source: IHS Global Insight, January 2014.

  41. Alabama GDP and Nonfarm EmploymentAnnual Percent Change Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Alabama Department of Labor, and Center for Business and Economic Research, The University of Alabama.

  42. Alabama Forecast Summary Probability: Forecast (60 Percent) and Range (90 percent)

  43. Building a Brighter Future Begins with the Basics Income and Education

  44. Understanding the economy and economic development Economy = People + Institutions + Property = Private & Public Sectors Economic Development = Higher or better quality of life Human Capital Development = Improved education and healthcare Institutional Development = Better government, companies, culture Physical Capital Development = Better infrastructure and environment There is no economic development without education (a public good) *** Informal education is also important Universities (Largely Public Good) Vocational and Community Colleges (Mostly Public Good) Pre-Kindergarten to High School (Pure Public Good) Development Policies must be Optimal = Efficient, Fair, Flexible,Sustainable

  45. Alabama has lower labor force participation, population growth, and educational attainment than the nation Labor force participation (2012): Alabama 57.3% United States 63.7%

  46. Per Capita Income 2012

  47. Average Annual Wage 2012

  48. Median Family Income FY2013

  49. Per Capita Income by Percent High School or HigherAlabama Metro Areas

  50. Per Capita Income by Percent Bachelor’s or HigherAlabama Metro Areas

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