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Transition to 15 ppm ULSD

ULSD Workshop. November 20-21, 2002. Houston, TX. Transition to 15 ppm ULSD. Experiences to Draw on. Annual RVP change over – since 1989. Experiences to Draw on. Annual RVP change over – since 1989 Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992. Experiences to Draw on.

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Transition to 15 ppm ULSD

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  1. ULSD Workshop November 20-21, 2002 Houston, TX Transition to 15 ppmULSD

  2. Experiences to Draw on • Annual RVP change over – since 1989

  3. Experiences to Draw on • Annual RVP change over – since 1989 • Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992

  4. Experiences to Draw on • Annual RVP change over – since 1989 • Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992 • Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel – 1993

  5. Experiences to Draw on • Annual RVP change over – since 1989 • Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992 • Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel – 1993 • Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995

  6. Experiences to Draw on • Annual RVP change over – since 1989 • Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992 • Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel – 1993 • Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995 • Introduction of Complex Model RFG – 1998

  7. After Further Review • Annual RVP change over – since 1989 • Can produce blends below the maximum RVP to facilitate turn over

  8. After Further Review • Annual RVP change over – since 1989 • Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992 • Plenty of room between maximum oxygen limit and minimum specification requirement

  9. After Further Review • Annual RVP change over – since 1989 • Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992 • Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995 • Very similar to RVP change over

  10. After Further Review • Annual RVP change over – since 1989 • Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992 • Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995 • Introduction of Complex Model RFG – 1998 • Again, very similar to RVP change over

  11. After Further Review • Annual RVP change over – since 1989 • Introduction of Oxygenated Gasoline – 1992 • Introduction of Simple Model RFG – 1995 • Introduction of Complex Model RFG – 1998 • Introduction of Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel – 1993 • Some things are the same • Some things are different

  12. After Further, Further Review • Introduction of low sulfur diesel fuel in 1993 will be the closest parallel for ULSD

  13. Things That Are The Same • Introduction of new product

  14. Things That Are The Same • Introduction of new product • Drop dead compliance date

  15. Things That Are The Same • Introduction of new product • Drop dead compliance date • Immediate demand for product

  16. Things That Are The Same • Introduction of new product • Drop dead compliance date • Immediate demand for product • Choices to make

  17. Things That Are The Same • Introduction of new product • Drop dead compliance date • Immediate demand for product • Choices to make • Adjustments to operations

  18. Things That Are The Same • Introduction of new product • Drop dead compliance date • Immediate demand for product • Choices to make • Adjustments to operations • Division of facilities or new construction

  19. Things That Are Different • Competing product still being marketed

  20. Things That Are Different • Competing product still being marketed • Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0

  21. Things That Are Different • Competing product still being marketed • Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0 • Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is…

  22. Things That Are Different • Competing product still being marketed • Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0 • Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is… • Choices are short term

  23. Things That Are Different • Competing product still being marketed • Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0 • Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is… • Choices are short term • Radical changes to operations

  24. Things That Are Different • Competing product still being marketed • Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0 • Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is… • Choices are short term • Radical changes to operations • Sulfur Credits

  25. Things That Are Different • Competing product still being marketed • Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0 • Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is… • Choices are short term • Radical changes to operations • Sulfur Credits • Small refinery exclusion

  26. Things That Are Different • Competing product still being marketed • Refinery Production is regulated 80/20, 100/0 • Initial need (verses demand) is zero, demand is… • Choices are short term • Radical changes to operations • Sulfur Credits • Small refinery exclusion • Degrees of magnitude 3000 – 500 vs 400 - 15

  27. Physical Transition, Initial staging • June 1 – July ?

  28. Physical Transition, Initial staging • June 1 – July ? • Won’t be without problems

  29. Physical Transition, Initial staging • June 1 – July ? • Won’t be without problems • We have “outs” at this point

  30. Physical Transition, Initial staging • June 1 – July ? • Won’t be without problems • We have “outs” at this point • Downgrades • Little or no demand • Time

  31. Now Things Get Interesting • July ? – August 31

  32. Now Things Get Interesting • July ? – August 31 • Pace of downstream conversions

  33. Now Things Get Interesting • July ? – August 31 • Pace of downstream conversions • Who/how many will handle both products?

  34. Now Things Get Interesting • July ? – August 31 • Pace of downstream conversions • Who/how many will handle both products? • Price differential vs inventory

  35. Now Things Get Interesting • July ? – August 31 • Pace of downstream conversions • Who/how many will handle both products? • Price differential vs inventory • Use of Credits?

  36. Now Things Get Interesting • July ? – August 31 • Pace of downstream conversions • Who/how many will handle both products? • Price differential vs inventory • Use of Credits? • Out of the wood work/None to be had

  37. September 1, 2006 • A non-event

  38. September 1, 2006 • A non-event • No overnight change

  39. September 1, 2006 • A non-event • No overnight change • Production control, 80/20

  40. September 1, 2006 • A non-event • No overnight change • Production control, 80/20 • No major distribution problems

  41. ULSD Workshop November 20-21, 2002 Houston, TX Transition to 15 ppmULSD

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