Jamie Austin, David Le, Lana Wong, Peter Larsen TEPPC\Data Work Group

1. Jamie Austin, David Le, Lana Wong, Peter LarsenTEPPC\Data Work Group TEPPC 2024 Database Assumptions for California OTC Plants and for Western Interconnect Plant Retirements October 1, 2013

2. Overview • Southern California Grid post – San Onofre • TEPPC 2024 Common Case OTC Plant Updates • Finalize OTC Assumptions for Common Case • Isolate those pieces all participants can agree upon • Determine if any double counting? • Identify how many MW are at issue? • Quantify difference? • Transmission OTC solutions to be added? Do they have to be approved by SCG? • Western Interconnect Plant Retirements • Finalize Plant Retirement Assumptions for the TEPPC 2024 Common Case • LRS, LBNL submittals, validation by SPGs • Set criteria - Should SPG’s assumptions should prevail when others do not agree?

3. Without San OnofreSeptember 9 Meeting

4. The OTC Assumptions Challenge – SONGS Questions Different Prospective • California OTC Legislation – Instituted by California Water Board in 2010, revised 2011 • CAISO Studies: • 2012-13 Transmission System Studies - w/o SONGS Scenario • LTPP – Renewable Integration Study • (See July 14 summary slide) • Utility’s Prospective • SCE, SDG&E

5. Multi Agency Prospective (CEC, ISO, CPUC) September 9 Meeting • Summary of staff approach • Requirements: • Maintain reliability – Number 1 priority • Establish a common understanding • Approach: • Utilize existing processes to get final decisions on long-term solutions by mid-year 2014. Solutions could include: • 50% of incremental need from energy efficiency, demand response, • distributed generation, and storage. • Authorize transmission upgrades to reduce needs • Authorize conventional resources where preferred resources and • transmission development is insufficient • Establish contingency plans to address key risks • Manage critical risks for air permits, transmission siting, preferred • resource deployment/effectiveness, natural gas supply

6. Southern California Reliability – Preliminary Plan September 9, 2013 Replace Retire

7. September 9 Workshop Results • High level discussion that involves 7300 MW of OTC resources • No specifics on what to use for replacing SONGS: • What? • Where ? • How much? • When?

8. CPUC’s ProspectiveJuly 15, 2013 Joint Workshop (Presentation by Phil Pettingill - slide 3)

9. Track 4 - ISO testimonyRulemaking No.: R. 12-03-014, Robert Sparks

10. AB 1318 studies - LCR (not final yet)ISO TP2012-13 SONGS study

11. AB1318 – Renewable Integration StudyISO TP2012-13 SONGS study

12. SCE’s Definition – July 15 presentation, SCE Reliability Considerations

13. SCE’s OTC Plants– July 15 presentation, SCE Reliability Considerations

14. SCE’s Assumptions – Sept 25 Workshop – Preliminary Reliability Assessment Results

15. SDG&E’s AssumptionsSept 25 Workshop – Preliminary Reliability Assessment Results

16. TEPPC 2024 OTC Assumptions

18. Use the CPUC’s Decision on Track 1David Le, CAISO • For Big Creek/Ventura local capacity area: • SCE is authorized to procure between 215 and 290 MW. • For SDG&E local capacity area: • Total 343 MW by 2018. • For LA Basin

19. SCE’s Track 4 Testimony – CPUCAugust 26, 2013

20. Assumptions • Retirement • SWRCB policy dates for compliance • LADWP Compliance Plans, voted and approved by the SWRCB • Repower • Known repowering • Needed for Local Capacity Requirement (LCR) • Replacement • CAISO LCR analysis done in 2011 - 2,000 MW need in the LA Basin Local Reliability Area (with El Segundo Repower need 1,440 MW) • DWG reached consensus on replacing the 1,440 MW with 50-50, CCCTs - GTs • San Diego does not have LCR need if Pio Pico 300 MW and Quail Brush 100 MW assumed added in the dataset. • Marsh Landing 760 MW and Oakley 620 MW additions fill Bay Area LCR Need revize

21. Summary of OTC Retirement Assumptions (MW) revize

22. TEPPC 2022 OTC Assumptions

23. Western Interconnect Wide Plant Retirements

24. Review updates by Peter Larsen

25. Final Questions & Comments