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Spotlight on SEE: an overview of private sector activity and investment. Peter Sanfey, Elisabetta Falcetti, Anita Taci and Sladjana Tepic 16 April 2004. SEE: Opportunity and Potential. Growth exceeding CEB, driven by private sector expansion Private sector share of GDP > 60%
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Spotlight on SEE: an overview of private sector activity and investment Peter Sanfey, Elisabetta Falcetti, Anita Taci and Sladjana Tepic 16 April 2004
SEE: Opportunity and Potential • Growth exceeding CEB, driven by private sector expansion • Private sector share of GDP > 60% • Improving investment climate • Increasing access to finance • FDI at record levels • Expanding intra- and inter-regional trade
Privatisation has advanced… Large scale privatisation Average EBRD Transition Indicator Score
…and the business climate improved Source: BEEPS
Credit to private sector growing % of GDP Source: EBRD, IMF - International Financial Statistics, and central banks of countries in the region.
Capital flows and FDI peaked in 2003 US$ billion Sources: EBRD, IMF, World Economic Outlook, UNCTAD
Trade opportunities expanding • Trade liberalisation advanced: most tariff barriers removed • Regional FTAs: 26 out of 28 signed, but implementation is a key challenge • Access to EU markets improving
SEE: Challenges and Risks • Overall transition lags behind CEB • Doing formal business is difficult – informal activities around 1/3 of GDP • Financial intermediation is limited • Limited “greenfield” investment so far • Non-tariff barriers to trade remain significant
Taxation, corruption and access to finance remain key constraints Source : BEEPS
Internal funds are main source of funds for SMEs Source : BEEP (2002)
Most FDI linked to privatisation Annual percentage change Source : UNCTAD, EBRD
Remittances play a crucial role Remittances/GDP: Top 10 transition countries, 2001 Source : EBRD & IMF
Customs and trade regulations remain significant obstacles to trade Source : BEEPS (2002)
Policy implications • Encourage remittance flows through official channels • Strengthen banking competition and access to alternative sources of domestic finance • Target meaningful investment climate measures (including fair treatment for foreign investors) • Facilitate cross-border trade • Tackle the informal sector
EBRD Commitments to SEE:>EUR 1 billion / yr – Private share up Annual business volume EUR million
Spotlight on SEE: an overview of private sector activity and investment Peter Sanfey, Elisabetta Falcetti, Anita Taci and Sladjana Tepic 16 April 2004